Joe Biden flipped a key House district in Nevada thanks to a strong showing in the Vegas suburbs
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Our project to calculate the 2020 presidential results for all 435 congressional districts nationwide goes to Nevada, which once again backed the Democratic ticket in a tight race. You can find our complete data set here, which we’re updating continuously as the precinct-level election returns we need for our calculations become available.
Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump 50-48 in Nevada, which was similar to Hillary Clinton’s 48-46 showing in 2016 (and also a good demonstration of the reduced appeal of third-party candidates in 2020). However, while Trump and Clinton each took two of the state’s congressional districts four years ago, Biden secured three of them this time. You can find a larger version of our map here.
Biden’s improvements in the suburbs helped him flip the 3rd District to the south of Las Vegas: While Trump took this seat 48-47 four years ago, Biden scored an even tighter 49.1-48.9 win this time. Freshman Democratic Rep. Susie Lee ran a bit ahead of the ticket, though, by defeating former wrestler Dan Rodimer 49-46 in a contest that attracted millions in outside spending on both sides. (This also makes this district the second we’ve encountered so far that flipped from Trump to Biden after New Hampshire’s 1st. We haven’t come across any Clinton-to-Trump seats yet.)
Meanwhile, there was a tiny tick to the right in the 4th District, which includes Las Vegas’ northern suburbs and a large swath of rural areas in the middle of the state. Biden won 51-47 in a seat that had favored Clinton 50-45; Democratic Rep. Steven Horsford also prevailed 51-46 in a race that saw little outside spending on either side.
The other two districts remained uncompetitive, though there were some notable shifts in each. Biden took Democratic Rep. Dina Titus’ 1st District 61-36, which was a little weaker than Clinton’s 62-33 win in this Las Vegas-based seat. Trump’s 54-44 victory in Republican Rep. Mark Amodei’s 2nd District, though, was a shade smaller than his previous 52-40 showing in this northern Nevada seat.
Unlike their colleagues in many other states, Silver State Democrats are considerably better positioned for redistricting than they were 10 years ago. The current congressional lines were drawn up by a federal judge after then-GOP Gov. Brian Sandoval and the Democratic-led legislature failed to agree on a map. Democrat Steve Sisolak won the 2018 race to replace Sandoval, however, and Team Blue also currently controls both chambers of the legislature.