Morning Digest: Medicaid expansion is on Missouri’s ballot next month, and supporters are gearing up

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The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● MO Ballot: Supporters of a ballot measure to expand Medicaid to 230,000 Missourians are airing their first TV ad ahead of next month’s vote. The spot’s narrator says that Amendment 2, as the measure is known, would “fix” the problem of Missouri’s federal tax dollars helping to pay for healthcare in other states by bringing those funds “back to Missouri.” The remainder of the ad argues that the amendment would “protect thousands of healthcare jobs,” “help keep our rural hospitals open,” and “deliver healthcare to more veterans and hardworking Missouri families.”

Campaign Action

There hasn’t been any public polling on the issue, but efforts to expand Medicaid have performed well at the ballot box. Three red states—Idaho, Utah, and Nebraska—all voted to expand the program in 2018, and just last month, voters in neighboring Oklahoma did so as well.

Koch-backed conservative groups unsuccessfully sought to block the Missouri measure from the ballot in court, but supporters have castigated Republican Gov. Mike Parson for moving the vote from November to the Aug. 4 primary, charging that Parson did so in the hopes that lower turnout would help defeat the amendment. Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt, another Republican, also made the unusual decision to schedule his state’s Medicaid vote to coincide with the primary rather than the general election, but the measure nonetheless passed by a narrow 50.5 to 49.5 margin.

Election Changes

Please bookmark our litigation tracker for a complete summary of the latest developments in every lawsuit regarding changes to elections and voting procedures as a result of the coronavirus.

● Nebraska: Election officials in Douglas County, which is the largest county in Nebraska and one of its bluest, say they will send absentee ballot applications to all voters for the November general election. Douglas is home to Omaha and more than a quarter of all state residents. It also makes up the bulk of the state’s 2nd Congressional District, which will host a competitive race for both the House and the presidency, since Nebraska awards an electoral vote to the winner of each district.

2Q Fundraising

● MI-Sen: John James (R): $6 million raised

● AZ-06: Hiral Tipirneni (D): $665,000 raised, $1.65 million cash-on-hand

● CA-23: Kim Mangone (D): $360,000 raised

● CA-25: Mike Garcia (R-inc): $2.5 million raised, $723,000 cash-on-hand

● IA-02: Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R): $352,000 raised, $504,000 cash-on-hand

● KY-06: Josh Hicks (D): $600,000 raised, $892,000 cash-on-hand

● MN-02: Tyler Kistner (R): $744,000 raised, $512,000 cash-on-hand

● MT-AL: Kathleen Williams (D): $760,000 raised, $1.6 million cash-on-hand

● TX-22: Sri Preston Kulkarni (D): $950,000 raised, $1.1 million cash-on-hand

Senate

● AK-Sen, AK-AL: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling is out with one of the very few surveys of Alaska we’ve seen all cycle, and it finds close races for both the Senate and state’s only U.S. House seat. The poll was conducted on behalf of election enthusiasts on Twitter, who had organized a successful crowdfunding effort to pay for the survey. (PPP director Tom Jensen wound up waiving his firm’s fee so that organizers could donate the proceeds to charity.)

The survey gives Republican Dan Sullivan a 39-34 lead over orthopedic surgeon Al Gross, who is an independent seeking the Democratic nomination. (The Alaska Democratic Party allows independent candidates to compete in its primaries, and if Gross, who has no notable Democratic opposition, wins the contest in August, he would be identified on the general election ballot with both a “U” for unaffiliated and as the “Alaska Democratic Party Nominee.”) This is the very first poll we’ve seen of the contest between Sullivan and Gross.

PPP also finds independent Alyse Galvin leading Republican Rep. Don Young, who has held this seat since 1973, by a slim 43-41 margin after losing to him 53-47 last cycle. Galvin, like Gross, is the heavy favorite to win the Democratic primary, and PPP identified them both as independents in its survey. The only other numbers we’ve seen here came from a mid-June Data For Progress survey that showed Galvin ahead by a similar 43-42 spread.

Republicans have long been the dominant party in Alaska politics, but the nationwide decline in Donald Trump’s fortunes could very well be hurting Team Red in The Last Frontier. While Trump took Alaska 51-37 in 2016, PPP shows him ahead just 48-45 now. If Trump carried the state by 3 points in the fall, it would be the party’s smallest margin of victory since 1968, when Richard Nixon beat Hubert Humphrey by that same margin.

While this poll gives Democrats some reasons for optimism, there are also some reasons for caution. First, as we always warn, analysts should never let one poll determine their outlook on a race, even if there’s literally just one poll out there, and Alaska is also more difficult than average to poll. We haven’t seen any major outside spending from either party in any of Alaska’s contests, so at least for now, neither Democrats or Republicans are acting like either contest is close enough to merit an investment—though that could always change.

PPP also notes that, while Galvin is narrowly ahead in the House race, the undecided voters back Trump by a 57-31 margin, so Young may pick up support as Election Day draws nearer. In the Senate race, though, the undecideds actually prefer Biden 43-42, which is a positive sign for Gross.

● AZ-Sen: Democrat Mark Kelly’s allies at 314 Action Fund have released a survey from Change Research that shows him leading appointed Republican Sen. Martha McSally 50-42. The survey also tested Kelly against businessman Daniel McCarthy, who is running an extremely longshot campaign against McSally in the Aug. 4 primary, and found the Democrat ahead 50-44.

While this survey shows McCarthy running a little stronger against Kelly than McSally, he’d probably be an even worse candidate if he somehow won the GOP nod. McCarthy made news last year when he embraced the idea that the United States should annex Mexico, compared himself to Jesus, denied he compared himself to Jesus, then pretty much compared himself to Jesus again.

McCarthy hasn’t gotten any better since then, either. Last month, after Maricopa County responded to the dramatic spike in COVID-19 infections by imposing a face mask mandate, McCarthy protested the order as “a communist insurrection.”

Meanwhile, a Democratic group called Advancing AZ has announced that it has started an ad campaign against McSally that will run in the “high six figures.” The commercial declares that, while the senator promised “swift relief” to people who have lost their jobs during the pandemic, she’s really “letting unemployment insurance expire this month.” The narrator also rips McSally for writing “a bill to give wealthy families a $24,000 tax break to go on vacation.”

● CO-Sen: Politico reports that Giffords PAC has booked $1.25 million for a four-week ad campaign against Republican Sen. Cory Gardner that will start July 28.

● GA-Sen-A: The Democratic group Forward Majority launched Team Blue’s first major outside buy of the entire race this week with a $3 million ad campaign against Republican Sen. David Perdue. The opening spot declares that, while families need help during the pandemic, the senator “voted to let insurance companies deny coverage to people with pre-existing conditions, leaving Georgians with heart disease, cancer, diabetes, and other ailments at greater risk.”

Meanwhile, Jon Ossoff is also going up with his first TV spot since he won the Democratic primary a month ago. Ossoff talks about his career running a business that “investigates corruption for news organizations worldwide,” and he bemoans that “corruption is why politicians let health insurance companies rip off our families, and polluters poison our air and water.” Ossoff declares, “Fighting corruption is my job and it’s what I’ll do as your senator.”

● MA-Sen: Rep. Joe Kennedy III’s newest ad for the September Democratic primary depicts him as an opponent of a failed status quo. The congressman declares that “this has to be the moment where we finally reject the policies of the past and we build something better, something stronger, for the future.” Politico writes that Kennedy has already spent a total of $2.4 million on TV ahead of his intra-party contest with Sen. Ed Markey.

● NC-Sen: The Democratic firm Public Policy Polling’s latest survey of its home state of North Carolina finds Democrat Cal Cunningham beating Republican Sen. Thom Tillis 47-39, while Joe Biden leads 50-46. Two weeks ago, PPP had Cunningham up by a smaller 44-40 spread.

While Cunningham is well ahead in this poll, though, PPP writes that the undecided voters are a very conservative bunch. These respondents backed Donald Trump by a 20-point spread, and PPP says that Tillis would trail by 5 if they end up backing him by this same spread. The undecided voters also supported Trump by 48 points four years ago, and the pollster writes, “If the Senate undecideds voted the same party they did for President in 2016 Cunningham would lead by only 1.”

Gubernatorial

● AK-Gov: Public Policy Polling’s survey of Alaska (see our AK-Sen, AK-AL item above) also asked respondents if they’d “support or oppose recalling [Gov.] Mike Dunleavy from office before his term is up,” and respondents said they’d oppose firing the Republican by a 46-39 margin. As we’ll discuss, it’s not clear yet if, much less when, a recall campaign will happen.

Even though a plurality of voters say they don’t want to remove Dunleavy from office before his term ends in late 2022, the poll still finds him with a negative 42-45 approval rating. PPP refers back to the unsuccessful 2012 campaign to recall Republican Gov. Scott Walker in Wisconsin to explain, “This is a similar dynamic to what PPP often saw in Scott Walker’s recall election — there was a certain segment of voters that didn’t like him but also didn’t support recalling him, and that made the chances of a successful recall low.”

Dunleavy opponents may be able to overcome this deficit in Alaska if they get the chance, but first, they need to turn in 71,000 valid petitions to get a recall question on ballot. The Recall Dunleavy campaign, which has acknowledged that social distancing has made it difficult to collect signatures, said last week that it had 41,000 petitions so far. There is no deadline to turn in the signatures, but the campaign acknowledged that they were running out of time to get on the November 2020 ballot.

If Dunleavy is recalled, whether it’s this fall or at a later date, he would be succeeded by Lt. Gov. Kevin Meyer, a fellow Republican. No matter what, though, Alaska’s regularly scheduled gubernatorial election will take place in 2022.

While defeating Dunleavy wouldn’t change which party holds the governor’s office, his critics have good reason to want him out. Dunleavy alienated plenty of Alaskans last year—including some of his old supporters—with his draconian budget cuts that included an attempt to slash 41% of higher education funding, as well as retaliating against the state Supreme Court by cutting $335,000 in funding after it upheld a ruling that protected abortion rights.

House

● AL-02: Retiring Rep. Martha Roby announced this week that she was endorsing businessman Jeff Coleman in Tuesday’s Republican primary runoff. Coleman’s opponent is former state Rep. Barry Moore, who unsuccessfully challenged Roby for renomination last cycle.

● FL-03: 2018 candidate Judson Sapp has released a TV ad ahead of the crowded Aug. 18 Republican primary for this reliably red open seat. As generic cheery music plays in the background, the narrator insists, “Like you, Judson Sapp is tired of liberal political correctness and he’s had enough of rioters destroying small businesses, defacing property and assaulting our law enforcement.” The commercial, which never so much as alludes to police brutality or racism, concludes, “Judson Sapp will stand up to liberals, stop the lawlessness, and support our president.”

● GA-14: Neurosurgeon John Cowan’s new ad accuses wealthy conspiracy theorist Marjorie Greene, who is his opponent in the Aug. 11 Republican primary runoff, of once refusing to enroll her construction company in a federal program designed to screen out undocumented immigrants.

● MT-AL: Democrat Kathleen Williams has released a Global Strategy Group survey that shows her deadlocked 47-47 with Republican Matt Rosendale. A recent University of Montana poll gave Rosendale a 45-37 lead.

● NJ-05: The Associated Press has called Tuesday’s Republican primary for former Wall Street banker Frank Pallotta, who leads 2018 nominee John McCann 51-34 with 33,000 votes counted.

Pallotta will face Democratic Rep. Josh Gottheimer in a highly educated suburban district that has been moving to the left since Donald Trump narrowly carried it. Pallotta raised a total of $244,000 from donors through mid-June and self-funded another $310,000, which is just a fraction of the nearly $5 million that Gottheimer has taken in during the campaign. Daily Kos Elections rates this as Safe Democratic.

● NY-01: On Thursday, 2018 nominee Perry Gershon conceded the June 23 Democratic primary to Stony Brook University professor Nancy Goroff. Gershon had initially led Goroff in the contest to take on Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin, but Goroff pulled ahead after all the absentee ballots were counted this week. Election officials in Suffolk County, which is the one county in this seat, said Thursday that Goroff led 36-35, a margin of 630 votes.

Zeldin begins the general election as the clear favorite. This eastern Long Island district swung from 50-49 Obama to 54-42 Trump, and the incumbent is a very strong fundraiser. Gershon, though, held Zeldin to a surprisingly modest 51-47 victory last cycle, and Goroff proved during the primary that she has access to plenty of campaign cash: She raised a grand total of $1.4 million from donors through early June, and Goroff self-funded an additional $1 million. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Likely Republican.

● TN-01: Politico reports that the far-right Club for Growth has launched a $550,000 TV and digital ad campaign promoting Republican state Rep. Timothy Hill in the Aug. 6 primary for this safely red East Tennessee district. The opening commercial touts Hill as a loyal Trump ally who will “defend law enforcement against leftist efforts to defund the police,” and also says that he backs congressional term limits.  

● TX-04: Republican state Sen. Pat Fallon filed FEC paperwork this week for a possible bid to succeed John Ratcliffe, though he has not announced he’s in yet. Because Ratcliffe won the GOP primary before he resigned to join the Trump administration, the party’s Congressional District Executive Committee will select a replacement nominee at an Aug. 8 meeting.

Legislative

● Special Elections: In classic Louisiana fashion, there is a special election on tap for Saturday:

LA-HD-54: This Republican seat based in Lafourche Parish, which is located to the southwest of the New Orleans area, became vacant when former state Rep. Reggie Bagala died in April. Six Republicans are vying for this seat that backed Donald Trump 86-11 and Mitt Romney 81-17: 2019 state House candidate Donny Lerille, Larose resident Dave Carskadon, and businessmen James Cantrelle, Kevin Duet, Phil Gilligan, and Joseph Orgeron. If no candidate wins a majority of the vote, the top-two finishers will move on to a runoff on Aug. 15.

While this district is one of the reddest in Louisiana based on presidential results, Democrat Jerry Gisclair had represented it from the beginning of 2008 until early this year. However, this district finally caught up to its lean in presidential elections in 2019 when Gisclair was termed-out and, just like this special election, no Democrats filed to run. Bagala won an outright victory with 58% of the vote, while Gisclair himself badly lost an open seat contest for the state Senate.

This seat will be a Republican hold and have little impact on the makeup of this chamber, which Republicans control 67-35 (with two independents) and just this seat vacant.

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Morning Digest: Medicaid expansion is on Missouri's ballot next month, and supporters are gearing up 1

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