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CALISTOGA, Calif. —  As Donald Trump strode purposefully into the Capitol Rotunda for his swearing-in as president, Gary Himelfarb had already had enough.

“I’m getting sick just seeing him,” he said.

“I feel sorry for you, Gary,” his friend Jack Minckler replied.

Trump’s installation as the nation’s 47th president was, for some, a day of celebration and glory, his nationally broadcast restoration a mustn’t-miss opportunity to watch and revel in his remarkable political comeback.

For others it was a blot on history, a cause for horror and despondency and a reason to stay far, far from a television set or anywhere the sound of Trump’s triumphant voice might carry.

It all depended on your perspective and political viewpoint.

Neither Himelfarb nor Minckler, neighbors in this small slice of the wine country, are what you’d call hard-core political activists. That may explain the reason they get along and why the two agreed to watch Trump’s inauguration together over coffee and morning buns in the loft of Himelfarb’s small A-frame on a quiet side street.

They settled beside each other on a green sofa in front of a big-screen TV tuned to CBS, a more-neutral alternative to other, unabashedly pro- or anti-Trump networks.

Himelfarb, 70, a Kamala Harris supporter who describes himself as very liberal, was pushing 40 the first time he voted in a presidential election, casting his ballot for Bill Clinton.

He sat with a stricken look as Trump delivered his address, emitting a quiet suite of grunts, groans and a few curse words. When the Rev. Franklin Graham suggested in his opening prayer that Trump’s victory has been a gift from the Lord, Himelfarb harrumphed, “God didn’t do this.”

Minckler agreed. “I doubt God had much to do with it,” he said.

Minckler, 70, said he became a Republican largely because that’s how he was raised. A fiscal conservative and moderate on social issues, he backed Trump all three times he sought the White House, but said it was largely a party-line vote. Still, he was glad Harris lost, considering the former vice president vastly unqualified to serve in the Oval Office.

Minckler sat impassively, three feet from Himelfarb, with his arms folded as he took in Trump and his celebratory air.

“You feel liberated?” he asked his friend when Trump declared his day of ascension to be America’s “Liberation Day.”

“I’m going to be living my life,” Himelfarb said, resignedly.

“I’m just glad it’s over,” Minckler replied, summing up the thoughts of many after a long and exceedingly vicious presidential campaign.

The two met through a shared interest in antiques.

Himelfarb owns a small antique shop on the main drag into Calistoga, where the gregarious proprietor is a familiar sight on the store’s broad front porch, waving at passers-by. Minckler, who has an antique shop in Petaluma, about an hour away, lives around the corner from Himelfarb’s business.

Jack Minckler, left, and Gary Himelfarb generally don’t discuss politics, which may be why they get along so well.

(Mark Z. Barabak/Los Angeles Times)

Both arrived from elsewhere. Himelfarb spent most of his life in the music business on the East Coast, popularizing reggae in the U.S. as a producer and founder of his own record label. He moved to Calistoga, a small town famous for its hot springs and mud baths, in 2016.

Minckler, who owned a company that manufactured and sold high-end furniture and upholstery, moved to the wine country from Portland in 2018, after years of vacationing in Calistoga.

Back in the loft, the two bantered, with more amiability than antagonism.

“Does anybody fact-check him?” Himelfarb asked, after Trump embarked on one of several fanciful flights.

“Gary, do you really believe what most politicians say?” Minckler asked.

“No,” Himelfarb responded.

“That’s crazy, taking back the Panama Canal!” Himelfarb exclaimed at another point, after Trump promised to do just that.

“Oh, he’s just negotiating now,” Minckler assured him.

There were other areas of consensus, beyond God’s agnostic stance on the 2024 election.

“He’s taking over the country,” Himelfarb said when the camera panned on Elon Musk, applauding Trump’s promise to plant the Stars and Stripes on Mars. “I think we ought to take care of the Earth” instead of pouring money into space travel, Himelfarb said.

“One hundred percent,” Minckler agreed.

When Trump said the American people had spoken, returning him to power, Himelfarb conceded the point.

“That’s the truth,” he said.

“It is,” Minckler said.

“You got him,” Himelfarb said of the politically revivified Trump. Then, sarcastically, “Amen.”

As Trump wound down his nearly 30-minute address, Minckler worked in a small jab: “You think Biden’s still awake?”

“At least Biden showed up,” Himelfarb shot back.

Afterward, both praised Trump for his firm delivery and what Himelfarb described as a clear sense of mission — something, he said, Democrats seemed to lack.

“It’s kind of nice to have somebody that can give a whole speech without stumbling,” Minckler said. “I think he’s going to put strength back in the United States again. I think the world needs a leader.”

He feels quite optimistic going forward, expecting Trump to fare better in a second administration with the experience he took away from the first.

If he keeps interest rates down, tames inflation, keeps the U.S from going to war and grows the economy enough to put a dent in the national debt, Minckler said, he’ll consider Trump’s second lease on the White House a success.

Himelfarb is less sanguine.

He worries about Trump rolling back civil liberties, including the right to abortion in states where it still exists, and targeting Latinos with cruel and punitive immigration policies.

He allowed as how, yes, America can be made into a better place. But will Trump and his policies make it so? All anyone can do, he suggested, is wait and see.

And hope.

“He got elected,” Himelfarb said. “We can’t undo this election. So we have Trump for four years.”

Good naturedly, Minckler offered his support.

“Gary,” he said, “I’ll come over and console you every day.”

“Thanks, Jack,” Himelfarb replied.

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Jason Kelce’s daughters made a mascot for his ESPN Late-Night show, naming it ‘Dragon McFartFartButtButt. People reported that the eldest Kelce brother went one step further and brought his girls creation to life. Watch the video above because it’s funny as hell and adorable.

There’s a reason that it’s a Kelce world, and we just live in it. Jason and his brother Travis Kelce are famous for their NFL football, podcast and Jason’s new ESPN career. Jason’s wife Kylie Kelce beat out Joe Rogan when her new podcast hit in early January. And Travis is seriously dating the most famous singer on the planet, so there’s that too.

With Trump, Vance, Leon and all the oligarchs making the news, take a minute to laugh with this sweet family.

Midday open thread below…

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President Joe Biden isn’t taking anyone’s shit minutes before his term is set to end — especially James Comer’s shit. Several of Biden’s family members, who were the target of relentless attacks by Comer and his suckups, were just pardoned, including the outgoing President’s brother, James Biden, sister-in-law Sara Biden, sister Valerie Biden Owens, brother-in-law John T. Owens and brother Francis Biden.

Earlier today, Biden issued preemptive pardons for Gen. Mark Milley, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the members of the Jan. 6 committee, and the officers who testified before the committee.

And that shouldn’t even have to happen, but since a convicted felon is about to take power who wants retribution against those who investigated him for his crimes, Biden is shielding them from Donald’s fury. His family members will now be protected, too.

CNN reports:

“My family has been subjected to unrelenting attacks and threats, motivated solely by a desire to hurt me—the worst kind of partisan politics. Unfortunately, I have no reason to believe these attacks will end,” Biden said in a statement released as the inauguration ceremony was underway at the US Capitol.

Biden’s extraordinary decision to announce pardons for multiple members of his family in his final minutes as President was fueled, in part, by Trump’s public vow to appoint a special prosecutor to “go after” Biden and his family, according to a source familiar with his thinking.

A number of Biden’s family members had testified before a House Oversight panel looking into accusations of influence peddling.

Oh, sure, the same assclowns who allowed the Trump family to openly peddle their influence, including the $2 billion son-in-law, Jared Kushner, are concerned. You can’t make this shit up. Comer, etc, have been investigating the Biden family since day one, and he came up empty.

It is not a confession, you old goober. Biden needs to protect his family from the incoming 4-chan administration.

This last part kills me. Let’s replace one name with another name to correct it:

President Biden Trump abused his public office to create a slush fund for his family. President Biden Trump will go down as the most corrupt President in U.S. history, and our investigation will be remembered as one of the most successful pathetic ever conducted by Congress.”

Where are the charges if their investigation was so successful after four years? They investigated Biden’s family and came up with nothing. Cry more, you salty bitch.

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A Wisconsin man was apparently upset over the on again/off again TikTok ban and allegedly set Rep. Glenn Grothman’s district office on fire:

The Fond du Lac Police Department said the Menasha man was arrested after being found near a strip mall, 525 N. Peters Ave., that contained Grothman’s district office.

Police and fire officials initially responded to the strip mall about 1 a.m. after receiving a report of a fire. The building was unoccupied at the time and no injuries were reported, police said. Fire personnel extinguished the blaze, which began outside the building and burned the building’s outside siding and an air conditioning unit.

Police said the 19-year-old suspect “admitted to starting the fire in response to recent talks of a TikTok ban.” Grothman was among a bipartisan majority of 360 House members who voted last year in favor of a bill that would force TikTok’s Chinese parent company to sell the app or face a ban in the U.S. That ban went into effect over the weekend.

No one should be surprised by actions like these. The Orange Felon and the Republicans arbitrarily shut down what was a money source for many Americans and a source of entertainment. To add insult to injury, this on again/off again ban was supposedly due to concerns over security and Chinese information mining. However, the Orange Felon has welcomed people like Elmo Musky and Mark Zuckerbook with open arms despite their history of illegal data mining. Go figure.

But back to that slob Grothman. There was one part of the story that struck me as odd:

Grothman told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel the fire was contained to outside the building. He said the fire did not appear to get inside but said a staff member who visited the scene told him the office smelled of smoke.

A photo provided to the Journal Sentinel by Grothman’s office shows what an aide said was the burned back door of the congressman’s district office.

“I don’t even know yet (what happened) other than somebody tried to set a fire over TikTok,” Grothman said in a brief interview Sunday morning.

Grothman didn’t know what happened but was able to provide all these details that was forwarded to him by an aide? Where was Grothman that he couldn’t or wouldn’t check things out first hand like a normal person would. And he sure knows a lot about something he knows nothing about – oh, wait. Scratch that last one. That’s normal for a Republican.

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As a second Trump administration dawns — or, for his opponents, descends — on America, an interesting and unusual discussion has emerged over the broader meaning of Trump’s victory. One thing that makes it unusual is that there’s more consensus than disagreement about the fundamental point: There’s been a significant “vibe shift” in American politics.

That’s not the way things typically work. Every victorious party claims a “new era” of some kind, but the losing side usually dissents. That’s because, historically, ideologues and activists are sufficiently confident (and invested) in their views to insist any mere electoral defeat was a fluke or one-off — flawed candidates, flawed campaigns, economic conditions, whatever. “Our ideas aren’t the problem, we just nominated the wrong candidate” has long been the traditional ideological, psychological and political safe harbor for losers.

It’s not that the 2024 election doesn’t offer plenty of fodder for such interpretations. Trump’s win was modest. His electoral college margin ranks 44th out of 60 contests. He won the popular vote by 1.5 points. This was no landslide. Kamala Harris, far from an ideal candidate, had little time to put together a campaign. Joe Biden was enduringly unpopular and physically inadequate to the job. Inflation is political cancer for any incumbent. And we heard all that during the traditional recriminations phase right after the election.

But the vibe-shift conversation is about something more fundamental than finger-pointing. Trump’s “cultural victory” feels “tectonic,” in the words of New York Times columnist Ezra Klein. He suggests four factors for why this might be: The right has the upper hand on social media, corporations are looking for an opportunity to swing back to the middle after lurching left, Trump benefits from a bro backlash against allegedly feminized culture and Joe Biden allowed Trump to stay the center of attention during his own presidency.

I don’t fundamentally object to any of these as partial explanations, but they don’t fully capture what’s happening or why progressives are willing to agree that something more fundamental has changed. For instance, another important factor is that MAGA is part of a larger global phenomenon. Populism and nationalism have been on the rise in Europe, Latin America and India. History is often punctuated by such moments (for example, student protest movements erupted around the world in the 1960s). The trends that have shaped American politics — the global financial crisis, mass immigration, COVID, inflation — were not contained within our borders.

But I think the most important driver of the vibe shift is that Trump and Trumpism have shattered a near metaphysical consensus about politics, on the right and left.

Pre-Trump American conservatism was dedicated to a few fundamental propositions: limited government, cultural traditionalism, antiabortion politics, fiscal rectitude and free market economics. Now, I’m the first to concede the right often fell short of its ideals, but showing rhetorical fealty to the ideals was the binding firmament of conservatism. Those commitments still get some lip-service, but there’s no denying that on all of these fronts, loyalty to Trump is the more pressing litmus test. This has freed up Trump to move leftward on abortion, entitlements and economic policy generally.

As damaging as I think this has been to conservatism, Trump’s victory may prove to be more damaging to the left. Because Trump didn’t merely shatter the consensus on the right, he shattered the political consensus generally. Or maybe social media and those other trends were the battering rams and Trump merely benefited from the new landscape.

Either way, the fact remains that the bedrock assumptions about how politics “works” and the rules for what a politician can or can’t do, no longer seem operative. We’re all familiar with how his behavior has demonstrated that, but it’s also illuminated that the electorate itself is just different today. The FDR coalition is gone, the white working class is now operationally conservative, and the Latino and Black working classes are now seen as gettable by Republicans. The assumption that they are “natural Democrats” was obliterated in this election. Republicans have figured out how to talk to those constituencies.

Meanwhile, progressives who grew up knowing only the language of FDR-era class politics or post-civil rights-era racial and feminist discourse have found large numbers of voters — their voters — don’t want to hear it anymore. That disorienting feeling, that sense that history or demography or the “moral arc of the universe” might not be bending in your direction anymore, is what some call a “vibe shift.”

@JonahDispatch

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WASHINGTON —  Kelly Mann stood outside Capital One Arena early Monday, squinting at the winter sun, leaning against a wagon of red MAGA hats and gaudy gold chains with the visage of Donald Trump, the soon-to-be-inaugurated president.

It was 23 degrees and sunny in the nation’s capital. That was an improvement, Mann said, from Sunday, when freezing rain and snow flurries fell on Washington.

“I mean, if it wasn’t so damn cold, it would still be cool to be here because Trump rallies are a party,” said the 57-year-old tchotchke salesman. “I’m a Trump guy through and through.”

Mann came all the way from the San Gabriel Valley’s La Verne to hawk his Trump trinkets outside the inauguration, which was moved indoors to the Capitol Rotunda because of the frigid temperatures.

Most people who traveled to Washington to watch the event in person have been relegated to the Capital One Arena, a sports venue nearby, for a livestream of the official ceremony.

Trump said on his Truth Social platform that he planned to join the crowd at the arena for a modified presidential parade before finishing the day with a dizzying schedule of three inauguration balls.

Mann said he lived in Pacific Palisades as a child and that he was horrified by what he believed to be poor leadership by Gov. Gavin Newsom and Mayor Karen Bass during the Palisades and Eaton fires.

Mann said of Trump: “Everybody’s on fire about him.”

And of California: “We’re going to turn this state red. Gavin Newsom should be finished after this.”

Still, Mann is a businessman. Over the weekend, he sold Women’s March paraphernalia and rainbow Pride flag gear outside a protest march on the National Mall.

Outside the sports arena, red MAGA caps, beanies and scarves covered the people in a long line waiting to get inside.

Inside the Capitol, members of a University of Nebraska-Lincoln choir, wearing bright red scarves repping their school, practiced the song “One Voice” — “This is the sound of voices two / the sound of me singing with you / helping each other to make it through.”

President Biden met Trump at the White House early Monday, greeting the man who is both his predecessor and his successor with the words: “Welcome home” as he stepped out of a black sport utility vehicle with incoming First Lady Melania Trump.

The Trumps met the president and First Lady Jill Biden on a gold-trimmed red carpet, posing for photographs before heading inside for a private meeting ahead of the inauguration ceremony.

Biden and Trump rode together to the Capitol in the presidential motorcade.

Throughout Washington, flags that were at half-staff following the death of former President Jimmy Carter were returned to full height for the swearing in.

Before the ceremony, Danette and David Quintana stood outside in the cold outside Capital One Arena, where they waited in line for more than four hours to attend Trump’s rally there on Sunday. They were delighted to get inside for that event, which they called “electrifying,” ticking off the celebrities they saw, including singer Kid Rock, members of the Trump family, and X owner Elon Musk, whom Trump has tapped to co-head a so-called “Department of Government Efficiency.”

Danette Quintana said she and her husband are Catholics who believe God spared Trump’s life from two assassination attempts.

“God sends prophets here and there into the earth,” she said. “He’s one of those people … something’s up there, protecting him.”

Pinho and Mehta reporter from Washington, D.C., and Branson-Potts reported from Los Angeles.

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WASHINGTON —  As Donald Trump takes the oath of office Monday for the second time, the world is watching with a mix of fascination, curiosity, elation or dread — and a sense that this time around, those outside the United States perhaps have a better idea of what to expect from his presidency.

Even before Inauguration Day, the 2½ months of transition since Trump defeated his Democratic rival, Vice President Kamala Harris, had already yielded head-spinning developments on the global scene.

Some of America’s closest traditional allies were jolted by the president-elect’s rhetoric evoking an expansionist 19th century ethos, delivered via modern-day social media blast. Populist figures, already emboldened by a tidal wave of anti-establishment electoral sentiment, have found a congenial reception in Trump’s orbit.

And autocratic governments are anticipating a far more transactional relationship with Washington, unburdened by diplomatic discourse about human rights or the rule of law.

Trump may be the most mercurial American president in decades, but embedded in that is a certain element of predictability: that nearly any long-standing international norm may well fall by the wayside. The keenly felt fragility of a post-World War II rules-based order is its own kind of road map, some veteran observers suggest.

Many foreign leaders “are no longer scrambling to figure out what to do,” said Daniel Fried, who spent nearly four decades as a U.S. Foreign Service officer.

“They know they have to plan for all contingencies,” said Fried, now with the Atlantic Council think tank. “They have a better sense this time, though it still rattles them.”

Trump’s heavy footfall in the final days before assuming office almost certainly brought about the finalization of a cease-fire and hostage-release agreement in the devastating war in the Gaza Strip. The deal drafted by the Biden administration took effect the day before Trump’s swearing-in.

Though Trump has backed off on a boast that he would halt the fighting in Ukraine in 24 hours, there is a sense among all involved parties that Trump’s presidency will alter the trajectory of the nearly three-year-old full-scale Russian invasion of its sovereign neighbor.

Then there’s China. The upheaval triggered by the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that the immensely popular short-video app TikTok must sever ties with its Chinese parent company or face a U.S. ban will likely surface some insights into future dealings by Washington and Beijing over accelerating technological, trade and military rivalries.

“China could be a big surprise” under Trump, said Michael Cox, an emeritus professor of international relations at the London School of Economics. One factor to watch closely, he said, were the “huge” business interests in China of the world’s wealthiest man, Elon Musk, a prominent but relatively new figure in Trump’s orbit.

Musk, the SpaceX and Tesla billionaire, also has Trump’s seeming imprimatur as he shocks close partners like Germany and the United Kingdom with verbal broadsides against their elected leaders and highly amplified backing for domestic far-right forces.

With Germany’s election just over a month away, Trump has raised no objection as Musk has used his social media platform, X, to tout the far-right party Alternative for Germany as a national savior. Chancellor Olaf Scholz again Friday branded Musk’s electioneering “completely unacceptable.”

In Britain, in an upending of the decades-old “special relationship,” Musk has urged the release of a notorious jailed anti-Muslim extremist, Tommy Robinson, and loudly declared that Prime Minister Keir Starmer belongs in jail. All met by silence from Trump.

“It all sends a very disturbing message to Europe — to people friendly to the United States,” said Cox, who is also with the British think tank Chatham House.

Underscoring the populist-friendly tone of the new administration, expected inaugural attendees include Italy’s far-right Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and British firebrand politician Nigel Farage. Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, who had endorsed Trump as a “man of peace,” was invited but could not attend, Hungarian media reported.

As Trump, Musk and their team have done in Europe, they have already signaled their approach to Latin America and where they will place their favors. Trump was courting Latin American leaders accused of human rights abuses and antipathy to democratic norms even before he won election.

Argentinian President Javier Milei, who styles himself after Trump and vowed to take a “chain saw” (which he often wielded at rallies) to his country’s government and institutions, is invited to the inauguration. So is El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, who calls himself the world’s coolest dictator and engineered a second term in office despite a constitutional prohibition. Bukele also adopted bitcoin as a national currency, is profiting in crypto circles and said to be admired by Musk.

Allies of Trump have sought to undermine democratic leftist governments in Latin America, such as Guatemala and Colombia, and will likely reverse President Biden’s last-minute diplomatic concessions to Cuba that included taking it off the U.S. list of sponsors of international terrorism, a designation that advocates considered unfair and that damaged the struggling Cuban economy.

Mexico and Panama will be especially vexed by Trump.

Their presidents, Claudia Sheinbaum and José Raúl Mulino, respectively, are seeking a way to placate some of his demands, such as slowing illegal immigration that originates or passes through their countries, while standing up to ideas that they see as a threat to national sovereignty.

Trump has entertained declaring Mexican drug cartels as foreign terrorist organizations, a designation that could be used to attack them militarily inside Mexican territory. He has also said he wants to take back control of the Panama Canal, a vital waterway that the U.S. once controlled as an American colony on foreign soil but was turned over to Panama in a treaty signed by then-President Carter in 1977. Trump declined to rule out using the military to seize the canal.

Trump’s nominee for secretary of State, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), has stopped short of echoing some of Trump’s most unorthodox views but largely supported an “America first” agenda, saying every policy decision must face three questions: “Does it make America safer? Does it make America stronger? Or does it make America more prosperous?”

In the Middle East, dramatic events surrounding the cease-fire breakthrough between Israel and the militant group Hamas were drawing “split-screen” comparisons with the 1981 inauguration of Ronald Reagan, when U.S. hostages held in Iran were freed moments after the new leader took the oath of office. The presidency of Reagan’s predecessor — Jimmy Carter, who died Dec. 29 — was heavily shadowed by the long effort to free them.

Even before the first three hostages were released Sunday, Trump was quick to trumpet his own role in securing the accord. Announced Wednesday and finally ratified by Israel’s Cabinet early Saturday, the pact calls for a phased handing over of remaining captives, living and dead, seized by the Hamas fighters who surged into southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing about 1,200 people.

Israel’s bombardment of Gaza over the following 15 months has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health officials, leaving the territory in ruins and displacing about nine-tenths of its more than 2 million people.

“This EPIC ceasefire agreement could have only happened as a result of our Historic Victory in November, as it signaled to the entire World that my Administration would seek Peace and negotiate deals to ensure the safety of all Americans, and our Allies,” the president-elect wrote in a social media post as the breakthrough was being formalized.

Biden, for his part, acknowledged the unprecedented cooperation between Trump’s team and his own diplomats in the final push toward an accord, but could not contain himself when a reporter asked him last week if the president-elect was right to take full credit.

“Is that a joke?” he asked.

Many people in Greenland thought Trump was joking during his first presidency when he spoke of acquiring the vast island territory that is part of Denmark. But he has resurfaced the idea, refusing to rule out using military force to seize control “for the purposes of National Security.”

Europe quickly pointed out that Trump would be attacking European borders and a NATO ally.

“We have been cooperating for the last 80 years [with the U.S.] and … have a lot to offer to cooperate with,” Greenland Prime Minister Múte Egede said, “but we want also to be clear: We don’t want to be Americans.”

Fried, at the Atlantic Council, cautioned that “it was not good for the United States to have other states hedging their bets.” You never know, he said, when the U.S. will need its allies.

“I personally would take him both literally and seriously,” said Belgium-based analyst Guntram Wolff, playing off the popular political trope from Trump’s first presidential campaign, when observers parsed the difference between how his supporters and adversaries interpreted his more provocative utterances.

But he acknowledged that the world will simply have to wait and see what four more years of Trump will bring.

“He has an agenda; he makes strong points,” said Wolff, a senior fellow at Bruegel, a Brussels think tank. “And he’s been elected.”

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Unlike the many people who are upset that Donald Trump is being inaugurated on Martin Luther King Jr. Day, I see it as a good thing. First, it calls even more attention to the day and its significance. Second, it is a chance to speculate about what King might say and do if he were alive in the Trump era.

Counterfactual, “what if” history is a trend in the literary world. Trump’s inauguration on the holiday may prompt us to think about what America and the world might have looked like with King alive and well. Conversely, how did America and the world devolve without him?

King was the kind of leader who comes along once in a lifetime, one with unmatched eloquence and passion. His gift for oratory could energize all kinds of people, including workers, presidents and other heads of state. He possessed visionary insight on the complex racial, social and economic ills as well as their solutions and consequences.

He worked tirelessly to build a grassroots civil rights and social justice movement and serve as its guiding force. And his charismatic presence influenced people to act on the issues and problems he was working to solve.

How might that play out in the Trump era? To begin with, King abhorred all violence. He most likely would have been deeply pained by the mass gun killings that have become somewhat commonplace in American cities. He would almost certainly have butted heads with the National Rifle Assn. and its ardent backer Trump while lobbying Congress to pass comprehensive gun control legislation.

When it comes to international politics, King surely would have condemned Russia’s war in Ukraine. One can also envision him speaking out against Hamas’ kidnapping and slaughter of Israelis as well as Israel’s killing of Palestinian civilians. He would have called these wars ineffectual, repressive and wasteful, a drain on resources that should go to programs that aid the poor and minorities. On this point, he and Trump, who repeatedly claims he has kept America out of wasteful wars, would likely be in some agreement.

It’s impossible to imagine King not fighting tooth and nail against the rash of voter suppression laws and the GOP’s ploys to dilute Black and minority voting strength, including the assault on the Voting Rights Act. He’d bump heads with Trump on that. But Trump would also have a comeback: He’d cite the sharp increase in Black and Hispanic votes for him in the recent presidential election.

King would almost certainly try to prevent the country’s Republican-led rightward sprint, drawing negative attention from Trump and his MAGA coalition. But even he would not have been able to stop the many powerful forces with vested interest in halting or reversing the country’s momentum toward expanded civil rights, labor protections and economic fairness.

The resurgence of overtly racist sentiments, acts and conflicts under Trump would obviously trouble King, who famously hoped for a day when Americans are judged “not by the color of their skin but by the content of their character.”

King would have had to find new ways to challenge the continuing ills of poverty and wealth inequality, which ballooned in the decades after his death. Even given his superb organizing and planning skills, this growth likely would have been a losing battle.

Had he lived, King’s unshakable commitment to the cause of human rights and economic equality surely would not have diminished. Wherever there was a campaign, march, rally, lobbying effort or event that his presence could boost, it’s a safe bet that he’d have much to say and do. In the Trump era, there would be plenty to keep him busy.

Earl Ofari Hutchinson’s latest book is “Day 1 The Trump Reign.” His commentaries can be found at thehutchinsonreport.net.

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Our survey of presidential experts a year ago drew attention for ranking Joe Biden 14th among the presidents, ahead of such consequential chief executives as Woodrow Wilson and Ronald Reagan. At the time, many expressed surprise, if not skepticism, that the third edition of our Presidential Greatness Project had put Biden in the top third of the nation’s presidents.

True, President Biden helped lead the nation out of the COVID-19 pandemic while presiding over a series of legislative achievements, and many gave him credit for restoring important norms to the Oval Office after the tumultuous term of Donald Trump, whom the experts ranked last. But the story was unfinished, and the verdict was preliminary.

In the months following the release of our survey, voters and experts alike learned much more about Biden’s decline with age, laid bare especially by his disastrous debate performance against Trump in June. Weeks later, Biden dropped out of the race, handing the reins to Vice President Kamala Harris, who would go on to be decisively defeated by Trump.

Even as Biden’s administration shifted its focus to his legacy in the months since he dropped out of the race, his presidency grew more fraught. Evidence of his diminished capacity accumulated; he pardoned his son Hunter, undermining his claims to restoring upright adherence to the rule of law; and Trump and his fellow Republicans prepared to return to power and reverse much of what Biden accomplished.

Presidential legacies are a quintessentially American phenomenon; it seems that from the moment a president steps off the inaugural dais, chatter about their prospective legacy and the impact of this event or that decision begins. Those legacies remain contested well after they leave office, sometimes for many decades: Consider the continuing reassessment of presidents such as Wilson, Andrew Jackson and Ulysses S. Grant, all of whom have been out of office for well over a century.

Presidents themselves are quite aware of this. Barack Obama once observed that he and his presidential predecessors were all part of America’s long-running story and that each president just tries to get their particular paragraph right. Of course, presidents don’t write their paragraphs alone. Journalists, historians and the allies and enemies of individual presidents play significant roles in the way each is remembered and regarded.

Advocates of a particular president often point to the substantive accomplishments of an administration as evidence of a great legacy. Biden’s defenders, for example, argue that the American Rescue Plan, the infrastructure bill and the Inflation Reduction Act make him a momentous president, at least in the domestic sphere. But for each of those successes, there are blemishes such as Biden’s botched withdrawal from Afghanistan, his struggle with inflation and the chaotic situation at the southern border.

The reality is that while most modern presidents can lay claim to significant policy successes, most of those initiatives don’t end up being the most significant parts of history’s narrative about them. Legacies are just as much about the presidents’ political performance, their relationship with the American people, the success of their parties and the historical memory of what it was like during their time in office — the presidential vibes, as our students might say.

When we reflect on the ways presidents are remembered, more often than not their greatest policy achievements aren’t at the forefront. Gerald Ford is best remembered not for his administration’s fight against inflation or for signing campaign finance reforms but for pardoning his predecessor, Richard Nixon. Jimmy Carter’s presidency is more often defined by his malaise speech than by the 13 days he spent at Camp David negotiating a durable peace between Israel and Egypt.

Looking at Biden’s more recent predecessors is revealing. Bill Clinton’s paragraph is largely about the deepening of partisan polarization and his impeachment, while George W. Bush’s, bookended by the Florida recount and Hurricane Katrina, centers on the post-9/11 wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Barack Obama’s paragraph is so far focused on his historic place as the first African American president and his successful push for the Affordable Care Act, along with the rise of the tea party and further polarization. Trump’s first term was marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, two impeachments and the Jan. 6 insurrection, but now that he will become the first president since Grover Cleveland to serve nonconsecutive terms, his paragraph is only half-written.

As we contemplate Biden’s legacy, it is more likely that his ranking in our most recent survey will be his high-water mark. Future assessments will have to incorporate new information not only about his deterioration but also the extent to which he and his staff kept it hidden, the administration’s ineffectual handling of the war in Gaza, the president’s low standing with the American people at the conclusion of his term and the precarious situation in which he leaves his party.

A year ago, Biden still seemed to have a chance of reelection and was credibly playing the role of defender of American democracy. Now we know that more of his paragraph will deal with the difference between what he promised — to restore a measure of normalcy after Trump and serve as a bridge to a new generation of leadership — and what he delivered: the second Trump administration.

Brandon Rottinghaus is a professor of political science at the University of Houston. Justin Vaughn is an associate professor of political science at Coastal Carolina University.

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The breeze was tinged with smoke from the fires that burned through Pacific Palisades as dozens of workers finished up the brick facade of a sprawling home in the tony Brentwood Park neighborhood.

The talk was in Spanish, an unremarkable fact given the language has been the lingua franca on most construction sites in Southern California for decades.

But that fact could be at the center of a leviathan clash of interests: the need to rebuild thousands of homes that were incinerated on a scale the city had never seen before, and the promises of an incoming president to deport a good percentage of the workers who would be needed to get that colossal undertaking done.

“Everyone is scared,” said Melvin Merino, 36, a painter at the home. Workers “are reluctant to talk about their immigration status out of fear it may be shared with immigration officials.”

Even in a city that is supportive of the immigrant population, his fears could make him and others cautious to take jobs in high profile areas such as the fire zone.

President-elect Donald Trump has vowed to execute the largest mass deportation program of unauthorized immigrants in U.S. history and “seal” the borders from immigrants. Trump’s border czar, Tom Homan, promises to bring back worksite enforcement.

Immigrants rights groups are bracing for widespread roundups and expulsions, holding legal workshops up and down the state in a bid to aid residents who might be stopped by federal authorities.

The threat is rattling the construction industry, which already has a labor shortage. The wildfires that leveled an estimated 12,000 structures in Pacific Palisades and Altadena will only intensify demand. As homeowners turn to contractors for the slow process of rebuilding, an immigration policy that deports undocumented workers or forces them underground may hinder the recovery.

“It’s really a perfect storm,” said Jennie Murray, president of the National Immigration Forum, a group that advocates for bipartisan immigration policies.

An estimated 41% of construction workers in California are immigrants, according to the National Assn. of Home Builders. But experts say that number is far higher in residential construction — much of which is nonunionized and not as heavily regulated as large capital projects. The pay is lower and many workers don’t have the legal status to be in the United States.

Trump officials have said the administration will prioritize criminals and those posing a threat to public safety, but their plans have yet to take clear shape. Many employers fear the administration will cast a wider net, and that could ravage industries such as hospitality, manufacturing, construction and agricultural, all heavily dependent on immigrant labor.

This month, immigration enforcement actions by Customs and Border Patrol in Bakersfield spread anxiety among agricultural workers after dozens of people were detained in a multiday operation. Accounts of Border Patrol stopping people spread on social media.

Growers reported a drop in workers showing up to their jobs, and advocacy groups saw a surge of frightened families show up at legal workshops on how to protect themselves against deportation.

In Southern California, a similar situation could hurt not only the rebuilding efforts but also preparations for the 2028 Summer Olympics.

“There simply aren’t enough roofers and drywallers and all these other skilled trades in this country,” said Nik Theodore, a professor at the University of Illinois Chicago who studies disaster recovery in the Department of Urban Planning and Policy. “Then you put the backdrop of the campaign promises of the incoming Trump administration around immigration enforcement and deportations, we’re facing a quite serious situation.”

The U.S. construction industry has about 276,000 jobs that are unfilled. To address the tight labor market, the National Assn. of Home Builders has advocated for a guest worker program.

Figures vary but some estimates put the percentage of unauthorized workers in construction in the U.S. between 13% and 23%. Last year, California Lutheran University’s Center for Economics and Social Issues analyzed data from 2019 and found the figure was 28.7% in California and that those workers added $23 billion of value to the industry that year.

“There’s definitely labor shortages around the corner,” said Frank Hawk, executive secretary-treasurer of the Western States Regional Council of Carpenters, which represents 90,000 union members in 12 Western states. Even before the wildfires, there were concerns about the region’s ability to deliver skilled workers for the Olympics, he said.

And he said that workers without legal status will be concerned about traveling far, where they might be vulnerable to immigration officials.

Others may go underground or just leave the country altogether. Builders worry that will further constrain the market, putting pressure on costs.

The Cal Lutheran study found that the median hourly wage of undocumented workers in California in all sectors was $13 — half the $26 that U.S.-born workers made. Authorized immigrants earned $19 an hour.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, who has outlined plans to boost assistance to millions of citizens who may face deportation, suggested this week that Los Angeles should use immigrant Mexican workers.

“When reconstruction process begins, of course it will require a lot of labor, and there’s no better construction workers than Mexicans,” she said during a news conference where she pushed back on right-wing portrayals of migrants as criminals.

A drone image shows the aftermath of the Palisades fire above Pacific Coast Highway in Malibu between Rambla Pacifico Street and Carbon Canyon Road on Jan. 15.

(Brian van der Brug / Los Angeles Times)

One of the nation’s worst disasters, the Southern California fires have been compared to Hurricane Katrina on the Gulf Coast, where a workforce of Latino immigrants poured in to rebuild the region. In Paradise, Calif., where fires swept through the heavily wooded Northern California town and killed 85 people six years ago, the rebuilding process still draws about 5,000 workers daily — many Latino immigrants — to erect walls, lay foundations and put in piping.

A lot of immigrants will flock to disaster zones in hopes of finding jobs, said Pablo Alvarado, co-executive director of the National Day Laborers Organizing Network.

After Katrina, he said, “every five minutes employers were stopping at a day laborer corner and actually they were paying good.”

“But that’s where the injustices come,” he said. Unauthorized immigrants are especially vulnerable to unsafe conditions and other abuses. Many post-Katrina workers complained about not getting paid what they earned.

Merino, the painter, fears contractors won’t hire unauthorized immigrants to avoid dealing with federal authorities. Others think those with established contract work will probably keep getting hired, while newer immigrants may have trouble getting jobs.

If mass deportations were carried out, research shows the fallout could ripple through the entire building industry, leading to net job losses among U.S.-born construction workers.

“If you don’t have people framing the house, installing the drywall, you cannot have the American electricians and plumbers come in and do their work,” said Dayin Zhang, an assistant professor in real estate and urban economics at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Zhang co-wrote a recent study examining a U.S. immigration enforcement program that began in 2008 and resulted in the deportation of more than 300,000 people. The study found a large and persistent reduction in the construction workforce and residential homebuilding in counties after deportations occurred. Home prices also increased as the effects of a reduced housing supply dominated those of lesser demand from deported immigrants.

Widespread deportations are likely to have larger effects in Los Angeles because of the higher numbers of construction workers living in the area illegally, Zhang said.

“If anything, I would think that would be a much bigger distortion to the labor supply in the construction sector in the L.A. area,” he said.

In Malibu, Alberto Garcia, 38, an immigrant from Honduras, was volunteering Friday at the Malibu Community Labor Exchange.

“We’re very worried about deportations,” he said. Garcia hopes to secure a construction job in Malibu but fears any hiccup in his asylum case could hurt him.

“I was really trying to do everything by the book,” he said, flustered. “All we can do is put our trust in God.”

Another volunteer, Alejandro Perez, 45, who migrated from Mexico, applied for asylum but is uncertain about his status. He and other workers say they have no other option but to step out of their house each morning and find work.

“The need for food, bills and rent money obligate you to look for work,” he said. He specializes in roofing, drywall installation and painting, but worries contractors may not hire him because of his status.

Others are likely to stay home, said Oscar Malodrago, director of the Malibu Community Labor Exchange.

Hector Reyes owns a construction business that caters to clients on the Westside, including Pacific Palisades, Bel-Air and Westwood. He is typical of many immigrants who work in the trade.

Reyes gained skills on the job, eventually learned English, obtained a green card and became licensed. He built a decades long career in the trade that allowed him to raise a family, three children and a middle-class life.

Reyes has a small crew including his sons, but the threats feel familiar, reminiscent of the 1980s when immigration raids were common on worksites. “People were hiding in boxes, in attics.”

“I know people that don’t live here legally, but they are very decent people, they work their butts off,” he said.

Theodore said that, deportations or not, the city will depend on immigrants.

“I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say Los Angeles is gonna be rebulit by immigrant workers,” he said.