Ukraine update: Fighting in Mariupol now focuses on a single gargantuan steel plant

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Conventional fighting in the destroyed city that was once Mariupol may soon be over, as Ukrainian and Russian officials both announce that only a small pocket of Ukrainian opposition forces there. Russian defense officials demanded the surrender of all remaining troops inside the massive Azovstal steel plant; that deadline has now passed.

That does not mean that Russia will gain more than tenuous control of the city. As has been seen elsewhere, Ukrainian defense forces have been astoundingly effective in picking off whatever targets of opportunity arise on the outskirts of Russian-defended territories, and the now heavily damaged Mariupol consists of uncountably many spots for such ambushes. The fighting will now move to guerrilla-styled tactics by what Ukrainian defenders still exist, but it’s likely that Ukrainian forces will not attempt to contest the city’s capture anytime soon. Ukraine has opportunities to push Russian forces back at other points, such as in Kherson, where Russian gains are far more tenuous.

For the remaining civilian residents of Mariupol, the situation remains as bleak as ever. Russia continues to block humanitarian aid to the city, and is now issuing “passes” to residents that will be required for any Ukrainian leaving their own homes.

Pointless Russian cruelties continued elsewhere this weekend, with a rocket attack on a Kharkiv neighborhood killing at least five. There have been no further updates on the fate of the crew of the sunken Moskva, with only a tenth or so of the ship’s 510-person crew appearing in footage of the assembled survivors.

NATO deliveries, both of new weapons and the staggering tonnage of ammunition required for Ukraine’s defense, are continuing aggressively.