Ukraine Update: There's no 'off ramp' for Putin as Russia's weaknesses are laid bare to all
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The Economist:
This unexpected weakness of Russia in military matters arises from four concurring causes, of which three are inherent in her system, and, if not absolutely incurable, are at best little likely to be cured …
The Russian armies are often armies on paper only. Not only are their numbers far fewer than are stated in official returns & paid for out of the official purse, but they are notoriously ill-provided w everything necessary to the effective action of a soldier …
The colonels of regiments & officers of the commissariat have a direct interest in having as large a number on the books and as small a number in the field as possible, inasmuch as they pocket the pay and rations of the difference between these figure …
[E]very pair of shoes or great coat intercepted from the wretched soldier is a bottle of champagne for the ensignor major; every ammunition wagon which is paid for by Government, but not provided, is a handsome addition to the salary of the captain or the contractor …
This horrible and fatal system originates in … Russian autocracy … Then the power of the Autocrat, absolute as it is and vigorously as it is exercised, is utterly insufficient to meet the evil. What can a despot do who has no instruments that can be trusted? …
[T]ill a free Press be permitted in Russia & encouraged to unveil and denounce abuses; till the rights & feelings of annexed territories be habitually respected, we do not think that Russia need henceforth be considered as formidable for aggression. She has been unmasked.
That pretty much sums up Russia’s problems … in 1854. The more things change, the more Russia remains awful in how it treats its neighbors, how it treats its people, and how it manages to maintain its vast empire despite repeatedly shooting itself in the face with rank incompetence and grift. Well, some things change: Champagne has been displaced by vodka. Likely cheaper, quantity over quality.
Although Russia suffered a number of defeats, Emperor Nicholas II remained convinced that Russia could still win if it fought on…As hope of victory dissipated, he continued the war to preserve the dignity of Russia by averting a “humiliating peace”.”
Oh boy, things really don’t change, do they? As of now, Vladimir Putin is still projecting confidence. After meeting with Putin face to face, Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer said the Russian dictator “believes he’s winning the war.” But can he really be believing that? It’s kind of like Donald Trump, right? Does he really think he won in 2020, or is he full of shit? We’ve reentered a zone in which logic is severely lacking.
But at some point, that reality will have to kick in. What if May 9 rolls around and there’s no major Donbas victory to trumpet in Putin’s precious World War II parade? What if all he has to show for his folly is the remaining husk of Mariupol, along with the deaths of tens of thousands of his soldiers, tens of thousands more injured and maimed, the humiliating retreat from Kyiv, the even more devastating loss of the Moskva, and international pariah status? Boy, that FIFA World Cup will sure be fun without Russia’s participation, and yeah, Russian fixation with McDonald’s is weird, but they can’t even indulge in that.
Among its war rationales, Russia claims it needed to prevent a NATO country on its border.
Prior to the invasion, there was one NATO nation bordering mainland Russia (as opposed to the Kaliningrad outpost on the Baltic Sea): Norway, with a 121-mile strip in the Arctic. Russia also shares a maritime border with the United States. Neither of those are near Russia’s most important region for its ruling elite: that around Moscow and St. Petersburg.
Now Finland and Sweden are both en route to becoming NATO members by summer. Finland has a 1,335-kilometer (830-mile) border with Russia, and just as terrifying for Russia, that border is just 400 kilometers (250 miles) from St. Petersburg. In fact, Russia’s Winter War with Finland was fought, in part, to push the Finnish border further away from that key Russian city—something Stalin got at the cessation of hostilities with the annexation of the Karelian Isthmus. Rather than prevent the encirclement of Russia by NATO nations, Russia has actively encouraged it.
The United States can hardly believe its luck. The combination of a resurgent European commitment to its collective defense in the number of nations joining the alliance, the commitment to increased defense spending, and the movement toward a European Union military force all mean that in the mid- and long-term, the United States can shoulder less of the European burden as it seeks to counter China’s increased aggression out east.
Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have formalized their Aukus alliance, and Japan might be next. Everyone is currently denying it but it seems logical, particularly as Japan debates whether to ask the United States to host nuclear weapons as a deterrent to China. South Korea begged off joining but a new, more militarily hardline government won recent election, so who knows. Taiwan would join in a heartbeat, desperate as it is for explicit security guarantees, but the situation mirrors Ukraine’s. No one wants to dare China to attack. As is, the anglophile-only alliance has a severe colonial bent, reflecting the United States’ longstanding challenges in formalizing any “Asian NATO” analog. But that’s a discussion for another day.
Back to Russia: How does Putin save face and salvage any sort of real victory in Ukraine? How does he avoid the 2022 version of Nicholas’ “humiliating peace?” Pre-invasion, there was a great deal of diplomatic effort expended on giving Putin an “off ramp,” and he could’ve gotten something out of it, like a NATO promise to avoid permanent bases in the Baltic nations and Poland and information sharing during military exercises. Russia could’ve maybe gotten Ukraine to refrain from NATO membership for X number of years. But now? No one is feeling charitable toward a war criminal, and Russia’s battlefield performance isn’t scaring anyone anymore. Ukraine is certainly in no mood to compromise on anything. They’ve been too busy burying their murdered civilians to give Putin any charitable “off ramp.”
So the war will continue until the Russian government and military establishment finally do something about Putin, and then we hope nuclear weapons remain tightly buttoned up in the chaos that ensues.
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