Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Getting things wrong at the highest level

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Philips P. O’Brien/The Atlantic:

How the West Got Russia’s Military So, So Wrong

Good equipment and clever doctrine reveal little about how an army will perform in a war.

Let me tell you a story about a military that was supposedly one of the best in the world. This military had some of the best equipment: the heaviest and most modern tanks, next-generation aircraft, and advanced naval vessels. It had invested in modernization, and made what were considered some of Europe’s most sophisticated plans for conflict. Moreover, it had planned and trained specifically for a war it was about to fight, a war it seemed extremely well prepared for and that many, perhaps most, people believed it would win.

All of these descriptions could apply to the Russian army that invaded Ukraine last month. But I’m talking about the French army of the 1930s. That French force was considered one of the finest on the planet. Winston Churchill believed that it represented the world’s best hope for keeping Adolf Hitler’s Nazi Germany at bay. As he said famously in 1933, and repeated a number of times afterward, “Thank God for the French army.”

Of course, when this French army was actually tested in battle, it was found wanting.

This report from the Congressional Research Service is terribly disappointing and avoids the important questions. No acknowledgement of the great failure of most of the defense establishment to accurately assess the Russian and Ukrainian militaries. https://t.co/oDme9XZ4nB

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 14, 2022

James Fallows/Breaking the News:

Escaping from ‘Flatland’

Journalism inevitably flattens reality, since we can tell only a tiny part of any story. How framing can make that situation better or worse.

As a reminder: framing involves the assumptions that go into the who, what, where, why, how of a story—all of which generally make a bigger difference than obvious expressions of bias. What deserves coverage? Which stories should a news organization stick with week after week? Which ones, by contrast, become old news—“we’ve already covered that”—once they’re a few days in the past? What are the “sides” of a disagreement that deserve a platform and attention? Which can be dismissed? The endless stream of such decisions constitutes “news judgment.” As they mount up they shape the view of the world that journalism offers.

Here are a few recent illustrations of how the complexities of the world can be artificially flattened by habits of framing. The first two may seem tiny but are “tells” of deeper attitudes.

This is profoundly true. And consequential because poor military analysis leads – and has consistently led – to poor policy. I think an audit is overdue: wouldn’t you agree @PhillipsPOBrien? https://t.co/vMUxC7xGHd

— Eliot A Cohen (@EliotACohen) April 15, 2022

Yeah, this CNN story has been covered. But there is so much here:

‘We need ammo. We need fraud examples. We need it this weekend.’ What the Meadows texts reveal about how two Trump congressional allies lobbied the White House to overturn the election.

Over a few days in November, Lee lobbied Meadows to get attorney Sidney Powell access to Trump.
“Sydney Powell is saying that she needs to get in to see the president, but she’s being kept away from him,” Lee wrote to Meadows on November 7. “Apparently she has a strategy to keep things alive and put several states back in play. Can you help get her in?”
Lee then sent Meadows Powell’s cell number and her email.

Also: The key texts between Mark Meadows, Mike Lee, and Chip Roy (WaPo).

Telling that every time Walker is caught in a lie — and this happened too just days ago with the CNN story about his academic credentials — his campaign’s response never refutes the reporting. They just attack the reporters for “supporting Warnock.” https://t.co/oXpok3HEfT

— Adam Kelsey (@adamkelsey) April 13, 2022

Drew Harwell/The Washington Post:

Ukraine is scanning faces of dead Russians, then contacting the mothers

Ukrainian officials say the use of facial recognition software could help end the brutal war. But some experts call it ‘classic psychological warfare’ that sets a gruesome precedent.

I didn’t include this because I approve. I include it to indicate the level of brutality in this war that Putin started and can’t win.

Sometimes British understatement is exactly what’s needed…. https://t.co/ijR29szapi

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 15, 2022

Michael Jacobson/War on the Rocks:

WHAT ARTILLERY AND AIR DEFENSE DOES UKRAINE NEED NOW?

Ukrainian forces have done an outstanding job denying air superiority to the Russian air force using man-portable air-defense systems provided by NATO. They have also succeeded in using Javelins to stop tanks in their tracks. However, Ukraine has no effective options to counter a prolonged Russian artillery offensive. This should trouble those who want to see Ukraine prevail as Russia can rely upon an extensive supply of artillery platforms and munitions that it will likely use to lay waste to large swaths of eastern Ukraine and thwart a Ukrainian counter-offensive to retake the country.

NEW: Ukraine’s growing appetite for tanks—and the push from Western officials to send more of them—is also being driven by the flatter battlefield in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, where tanks are easier to maneuver. (w/ @RobbieGramer & @ak_mack)https://t.co/2pSSh5kihT

— Jack Detsch (@JackDetsch) April 15, 2022

Jonathan Chait/Intelligencer:

Republican Senator Blurts Out That He Hates Democracy

Last night, livetweeting his thoughts on the 2020 vice-presidential debate, Republican senator Mike Lee decided it was an opportune moment to share one of his edgier political beliefs: Democracy is bad.

We’re not a democracy.

— Mike Lee (@SenMikeLee) October 8, 2020

Lee is articulating a view that has long been in vogue on the American right but which Republican politicians were generally hesitant to express openly.

Can’t let the little people interfere with property rights.

Russia warns Ukraine to stop winninghttps://t.co/vbbjUVSqob

— Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) April 15, 2022

Tim Miller/Bulwark:

Mike Lee and the “Good Republicans” Were No Different Than the Crazy Kraken Lady

Clowns to the left of me. Clowns to the right.

According to a new book by Jonathan Martin and Alex Burns, Mitch McConnell went so far as to say that “everybody around [Trump], except for clowns like Sidney Powell and Lin Wood, are trying to get him to do the right thing.”

That’s not quite right.

The real story is that the circus was in town and even the supposed “good Republicans” were happy to put on their clown make-up.

But also adds that from their calculation, the Russians pretty much have all the effective military forces they can in theatre. That’s it. No more to come. If true, clock is well and truly running on the Russian invasion unless Russia raises a new army, starting now. pic.twitter.com/eN99kpmbh0

— Phillips P. OBrien (@PhillipsPOBrien) April 15, 2022