Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: Sobering news amidst Russian problems with their battle plans
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Nataliya Bugayova/Institute for the Study of War:
THE WEST MUST HELP UKRAINE FREE ITS PEOPLE TO STOP RUSSIAN ATROCITIES
Helping Ukraine liberate its people and territories is the only way to stop Russian atrocities and prevent future ones. The West must rush the military support that Ukraine needs to do so.
Bucha is an observable microcosm of a deliberate Russian terror campaign against Ukrainians. Similar intentional atrocities are happening throughout Russian-occupied areas in Ukraine. Russia’s playbook includes several consistently reported efforts.
Russia revived its “filtration” concept in Ukraine. Russian soldiers are executing Putin’s bogus order to “denazify” Ukraine. They are forcing civilians in the occupied areas to undergo “filtration” to identify so-called “nazis,” which in practice means anyone opposing Russia’s unprovoked invasion.
Specifically, Russians have been searching for, kidnapping, torturing, and executing local leaders, activists, and journalists in the occupied areas.[1] The US government warned about Russian lists of Ukrainians to be killed or sent to camps even before Feb 24 invasion.[2] Russians are continuing to create these lists and target activists.[3]
There’s a great deal to learn from the in depth commentary you can find on twitter and elsewhere form professionals. It goes way beyond what you’ll read in your local paper or see on cable, who repeatedly tend to overestimate Russian competence and preparedness even as they do a stellar job on the humanitarian crisis.
Alessio Patalano/Twitter:
So, what happened, and why does it matter?We know from official sources that 2 Neptune missiles hit the ship and a major fire ensued. The ship was operating incredibly close to shore, which is remarkable given the limited point defence system it has.This raises important questions about familiar themes in this invasion so far:
a. Russian conops;
b. Russian confidence/underestimation of UKR;
c. Russian preparation and readiness.This ship had no real business so close to shore; it clearly underestimated op risk;
Philips P O’Brien/Twitter:
This is a helpful list to understand what the US is sending to Ukraine, and what it indicates about the state of the war and, crucially what we can expect from the Ukrainian armed forces going forwards.
First, US is definitely upgrading Ukrainian capabilities. The MI 17 helicopters are interesting. Multipurpose so can’t say definitely what their use is. My best guess; to allow the Ukrainians to do more SF [special forces] work behind Russian lines.Next, a big stress on protection to minimise Ukrainian casualties. From body armour to NBC protection to counter artillery systems there is stress on protecting Ukrainians. Smart; it’s extremely important to keep Ukrainian casualties down.And, of course more anti air, but you don’t need to hear more from me about that.So a clear package to extend Ukrainian ranged attacks while protecting Ukrainian forces. A sign of where they think the war is going. Ukraine will be expecting to be more offensive as the Russians bog down, but in being offensive they don’t want to suffer high casualties.
Ed Yong/Atlantic:
THE FINAL PANDEMIC BETRAYAL
Millions of people are still mourning loved ones lost to COVID, their grief intensified, prolonged, and even denied by the politics of the pandemic.
The number of people who have died of COVID-19 in the United States has always been undercounted because such counts rely on often-inaccurate death certificates. But the total, as the CDC and other official sources suggest, will soon surpass 1 million. That number—the sum of a million individual tragedies—is almost too large to grasp, and only a few professions have borne visceral witness to the pandemic’s immense scale. Alanna Badgley has been an EMT since 2010, “and the number of people I’ve pronounced dead in the last two years has eclipsed that of the first 10,” she told me. Hari Close, a funeral director in Baltimore, told me that he cared for families who “were burying three or four people weeks apart.” Maureen O’Donnell, an obituary writer at the Chicago Sun-Times, told me that she usually writes “about people who had a beautiful arc to their life,” but during the pandemic, she has found herself writing about lives that were “cut short, like trees being cut down.” On average, each person who has died of COVID has done so roughly a decade before their time.
The reality of redeploying a defeated and exhausted army is now becoming apparent to those who talked about the Russians redeploying their Kyiv forces to the Donbas. It’s now been a [week] since Russian forces were almost all out of Kyiv and Chernihiv.Where are those forces now. Well best intelligence has them on their way from their withdrawal points to around Belgorod, in Russia, for rest and refit. In the US DOD briefing two days ago it was stated that these forces were still on their way.And there are these persistent reports that Russian forces are finding ways to avoid going back to Ukraine.Add this to the fact that these forces, if they can be rested refitted, will need a significant period to deploy into Ukraine, as the road system is still working against them.
Putin had annexed Crimea two years before Trump’s election.
Emmanuel Macron and Joe Biden Have Same Problem: Getting the Left to VoteVoter disaffection could prove critical in the French elections. Indeed, turnout among Mélenchon’s supporters could prove decisive. If the right is mobilized and the left does not show, a close race between Macron and Le Pen could tip in the favor of the right-wing leader. This echoes the concern of some Democratic Party leaders in the U.S. who, already facing the uphill struggle that midterm elections usually represent for the party of the incumbent president, are worried that supporters frustrated that key platform priorities of the U.S. left have not passed could stay home. Just as Mélenchon supporters could give the right a shocking victory if they stay home, if core Democratic constituencies do not turn out in November the GOP could win back both the Senate and House and perhaps a very substantial majority in the House.
Le Pen has dialed back her anti-immigrant, nationalist rhetoric and refocused on the economic issues of core interest to many French voters. She has also distanced herself from her previous embrace of Vladimir Putin, going so far in the wake of the invasion of Ukraine as to destroy a million pieces of campaign material that featured a picture of her and the Russian leader. In American terms, she has Youngkinized herself.
Meanwhile, Macron has reached out to win the endorsement of left-wing leaders. He has also stepped away from a proposal to raise the retirement age that was very unpopular on the left. And he has stepped up criticism of Le Pen as a threat to Europe in a time of crisis, given her historic Euroscepticism, closeness to Putin and proposals to pull France out of NATO’s command structure.
Kaleigh Rogers/FiveThirtyeight:
Why So Many Conservatives Are Talking About ‘Grooming’ All Of A Sudden
For the unfamiliar, “grooming” is a term typically reserved to describe the type of behavior that child sexual abusers use to coerce potential victims without being caught. But now some Republicans are using it against any Democrat (or company)1 who disagrees with them on certain policy issues. This is a deliberate tactic that was promoted as early as last summer by Christopher Rufo, the same conservative activist who helped muddle the language around critical race theory. “Grooming” is a term that neatly draws together both modern conspiracy theories and old homophobic stereotypes, while comfortably shielding itself under the guise of protecting children. Who, after all, can argue against the safety of kids? But by adopting this language to bolster their latest political pursuits, the right is both giving a nod to fringe conspiracy theorists and using an age-old tactic to dismantle LGBTQ rights.
“There is no better moral panic than a moral panic centered on potential harm to children,” said Emily Johnson, a history professor at Ball State University who specializes in U.S. histories of gender and sexuality.
From Trump 2020 to ‘Don’t Say Gay,’ GOP leadership wastes millions of taxpayer dollarsTax money goes down the drain when Republicans wage unwinnable wars on the Constitution, the rule of the law and their fellow human beings.On top of all that, Republicans have triggered an investigation that’s “among the most wide-ranging and most complex” ever undertaken by the Justice Department, according to Deputy Attorney General Lisa Monaco. That would be the investigation into Trump supporters’ deadly attack on Jan. 6, 2021, on the U.S. Capitol, the first time in American history that presidential power was transferred violently instead of peacefully.Sedition, conspiracy, incitement – these echoes of the colonies pre-Revolution are happening right now and eating up resources at nearly every U.S. attorney’s office and field office in the country, Monaco says. Congress has committed almost $1 billion for repairs, the National Guard, the Capitol Police and upgraded Capitol security. That’s about half the $1.9 billion sought last May based on a review of security needs.