Johnson: We Have … a Plan (Update)

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Well, you certainly could have fooled us. Plan A for Speaker Mike Johnson was to collaborate with Democrats to pass a CR and partial omnibus with lots of pork for everyone. When that collapsed in a hailstorm of recrimination, Plan B relied on House Republicans to unite on a purer CR with a debt-ceiling lift. Once again, House Republicans refused to take “yes” for an answer in an embarrassing floor vote last night. 

Now Johnson is telling reporters that a Plan C to avoid a government shutdown tonight is emerging, although no one knows what it might entail. Something about stump water at midnight of a full moon, perhaps? 

NEW: Speaker Johnson just told @RealMikeLillis at the Capitol that there’s a “plan” to avert a government shutdown and the House will vote this morning.

He didn’t divulge specifics.

“We have a plan… we’re expecting votes this morning, so you all stay tuned. We got a plan.”…

— Mychael Schnell (@mychaelschnell) December 20, 2024

Whatever Plan C might be, it can’t do worse than Plan B did:

House lawmakers from both sides of the aisle joined together to reject Speaker Mike Johnson’s latest stopgap funding package Thursday night, with one day to spare before a partial government shutdown is set to begin.

The House voted 174-235 against the package under suspension of the rules, which requires two-thirds support from those present and voting for passage. Thirty-eight Republicans bucked leadership and President-elect Donald Trump, a staunch proponent of the revised bill.

Why did Johnson do it under suspension? He couldn’t be sure to get support from his own Rules Committee, that’s why. That might have been a hint as to how well Plan B would work, especially since the much-skinnier CR cut Democrats mainly out of the loop. Hakeem Jeffries warned earlier yesterday that House Democrats wouldn’t rescue Johnson after changing the deal, although that was hardly necessary. 

So what are the options for Plan C? Punchbowl News looks at four options, the first of which is a non-starter — putting Plan B up for another vote, this time through Rules. That would be a great plan, except that you’d need all of the Republicans to vote for it. So …

2) A negotiated settlement. Although Trump might not like it, Democrats have a price. Johnson can get together with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and figure out what Democrats need to support a bill to fund the government past tonight.

The problem for Johnson is this runs the risk of both dividing the House Republican Conference and angering Trump by trying to again cut a deal with Jeffries. Democrats have to be convinced Johnson won’t renege again, as well as being able to deliver enough votes. Sources close to Jeffries say they can deliver the votes. The question is can Johnson?

3) Drop the debt-limit increase. If Johnson were to drop the debt-limit increase from Thursday’s bill, that might be an attractive option for Republicans and even some Democrats. Remember, that’s a three-month CR with disaster funding and an extension of the farm bill. With a shutdown just hours away, this isn’t a bad move.

Plus, many Republicans are truly opposed to Trump’s call to extend the debt limit now. Congress is six months ahead of any debt-limit deadline. Also, Trump also dropped this demand into lawmakers’ laps two days before a shutdown.

4) A short-term CR. There was some talk inside the GOP leadership and among rank-and-file members about a short-term CR to fund federal agencies until early or mid-January. But this wouldn’t change the current reality: Johnson has a very small majority, he has to deal with a volatile incoming president, face down an emboldened mega-billionaire with a social media platform and has a generally uncooperative House Republican Conference.

Of all these options, #3 looks like the most viable. It doesn’t require much support from Democrats and allows a Republican Senate to then deal with the debt ceiling. It also allows the skinnier CR without the CRomnibus spending and weird nomenclature changes to pass so that all of the future spending decisions can get made with Republican control of both floors in Congress. 

Or maybe Republicans just want to force a shutdown now. Whether or not anyone wins in a shutdown, this is the least worst time to do it. It’s just after the election and two years before the midterms, it comes on Joe Biden’s sede vacante watch, and it would mainly squeeze the progressive bureaucrats. The problem with that strategy is that it gains nothing in the end. Like most strikes, the losses outweigh the gains in the long run. Republicans might get some concessions on the margins, if they get anything at all, but nothing that would change the trajectory of spending overall. In the end, they still have to deal with Democrats to get anything passed in this session of Congress, and probably in the next session too, as long as House Republicans refuse to unite behind any kind of strategy. 

Perhaps we’ll see Johnson’s Plan C later this morning. Actually, we had better see it later this morning, or else Congress will have to work all weekend to get anything passed. If they pass anything at all, that is. 

Update: Could #3 be the next step?

ANNA PAULINA LUNA just came out of the speakers office and said there will be a vote on “something very similar to yesterday.”

She said Rs will not negotiate with Dems.

She also said vote at 10, which I’ve been told is an ambitious internal leadership goal not meant to be…

— Jake Sherman (@JakeSherman) December 20, 2024

“Something very similar” without the debt ceiling increase might get the rest of the House GOP back on board. Whether it goes anywhere in the Senate would be another question, but that would be Chuck Schumer’s problem. 

Update: Politico suggests that the debt ceiling is the real prize, and that both Trump and Johnson think this is the right time to have the fight:

Right or wrong, there also seems to be a belief among some people close to Trump that some sort of debt ceiling disaster is around the corner and thus this needs to be dealt with now.

Behind that thinking is a fear that Democrats are so eager to trip up Trump, that when the debt ceiling next needs to be raised, they’ll demand the GOP make politically impossible concessions. Republicans will then either cave to Democrats’ demands or they’ll cause a breach of the debt ceiling, precipitating an economic catastrophe in Trump’s first year back in office.

Under this logic, these Trump world figures argue that it’s better to face a shutdown now to try to resolve the issue.

Maybe …? If that was the case, though, Johnson would probably just have stood pat after last night’s vote rather than look for another way out. Unless Plan CR is just a pure CR with a debt ceiling hike, which might only be slightly different than Plan B but with more clarity of purpose.