Morning Digest: Republicans pull $2 million in ad money booked to help supposed rising star

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The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Carolyn Fiddler, and Matt Booker, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Leading Off

● TX-07, TX-22: The Texas Tribune reported Friday that the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) had canceled $2 million in ad time for the Houston media market—apparently the committee’s entire reservation—and would instead direct that money to other parts of the state (see our Ad Reservations item for details on where).

This marks the first time this cycle that a major outside spender has decided to triage a House race—or in this case, perhaps two. Big money players make this sort of move either because they feel supremely confident, or because they’ve concluded their candidate is doomed. In this case, it definitely looks like the latter.

The NRCC’s cancellation came as unwelcome news for the GOP’s nominees in Texas’ 7th and 22nd Congressional Districts, two seats in the Houston suburbs that have both been moving swiftly to the left during the Trump era. The 7th District in an ancestrally red slice of West Houston swung dramatically from 60-39 Romney to 48-47 Clinton, setting the stage for Democrat Lizzie Fletcher to unseat longtime Rep. John Culberson 53-47 two years later. Republicans have heavily touted Army veteran Wesley Hunt’s campaign to retake the seat, but it has already grown clear just how tough his task would be with Donald Trump leading the ballot.

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The 22nd District is somewhat more conservative, but the GOP’s position looked shaky even before Republican Rep. Pete Olson announced his retirement last year. This well-educated and diverse area collapsed from 62-37 for Romney to just 52-44 Trump, and GOP Sen. Ted Cruz took it only 50-49 last cycle. Democrats are fielding 2018 Democratic nominee Sri Preston Kulkarni, who has been running a very well-funded campaign, while the GOP is running Fort Bend County Sheriff Troy Nehls, who has not been.

However, while Democrats will welcome the news that the NRCC has cut bait in both races, these kinds of developments can still be difficult to interpret. That’s partly because we have to rely on media reports for data about TV ad reservations, and those sources may not have access to complete information. Groups like the NRCC can also always change their minds and jump back into a race they’d previously abandoned—they’ll just pay higher rates if they do so.

Then there’s the fact that, in the post-Citizens United era, the party committees that used to call the shots now compete with giant super PACs, at least on the GOP side. To date, the Congressional Leadership Fund (CLF) has spent or reserved $92 million on ads, while the NRCC has booked just $28 million. Last cycle, we saw the NRCC turn into something of a junior partner to the CLF, and that led to some friction between the two organizations over ad spending.

Indeed, CLF still has a hefty $6.3 million booked in Houston, so national Republicans have not given up on either race just yet. It may be that the two organizations are strategically divvying up the field—or it could mean that the NRCC has thrown in the towel and is rolling its eyes at its counterpart’s refusal to face up to reality. Conversely, CLF could be fuming that the NRCC is making a huge mistake, something we most certainly have seen in previous election cycles.

For that reason, we’re only willing to conclude that a Republican-held seat has truly been triaged if we know both groups have walked away from it—though again, there’s still plenty of time for decisions like that to get reversed. Democrats, though, certainly aren’t acting like either contest is a done deal, since the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) and House Majority PAC have spent or reserved a total of $6.7 million in the Houston market.

We’ll be watching for other indicators closely. To help keep track of these developments and any others over the next six weeks, please bookmark our new Daily Kos Elections 2020 House race triage tracker.

Senate

● AK-Sen: NBC reports that the Senate Leadership Fund will begin an 18-day $1.6 million media buy to aid Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan on Wednesday in a race where the incumbent seemed secure as recently as the start of the summer. This is the first major outside spending on the Republican side, but allies of Al Gross, an independent who earned the Democratic nod last month, have deployed at least $3.4 million here.

● GA-Sen-B: Republican Sen. Kelly Loeffler, who owns the Atlanta Dream of the WNBA, is airing a new ad touting her ongoing battle with … the WNBA. It’s not a new thing for Loeffler, bizarre as it may seem: She’s vocally opposed the league’s support for racial justice, particularly after the players’ union decided to add Breonna Taylor’s name to the jerseys they wore on opening weekend in July.

The ad is more of the same: “Pro sports pushing a radical political agenda,” a narrator intones. “One team owner fought against it.” The voice-over goes on, “Kelly Loeffler took on the WNBA and the liberal cancel culture, because no American should be fired or bullied just for what they believe.” Amazingly, no one in the WNBA has been fired or bullied for their beliefs. “The liberals called her racist, just for being conservative!” the ad concludes.

As Inside Politics’ Jacob Rubashkin notes: “It’s hard to overstate how weird it is that in January, Kelly Loeffler owning a WNBA team was considered an advantage for her candidacy because it could help her appeal to moderate women and minority communities, and in September, she’s running ads openly at war with the league.” Of course, she’s sought out this war to prove her ultra-conservative bona fides because she’s afraid that Rep. Doug Collins, Donald Trump’s personal favorite, will sneak past her into a January runoff with a Democratic opponent.

● ME-Sen: On Thursday Republican Sen. Susan Collins began airing an ad that tries to attack Democrat Sara Gideon for hesitating during a debate when Collins asked her opponent whether she’d have voted to confirm John Roberts to the Supreme Court. Given the massive outpouring of progressive anger that followed Collins’ support for Brett Kavanaugh, which helped shred her reputation as a moderate, the topic of Supreme Court confirmation votes seems like a strange one for her to emphasize.

● SC-Sen: Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham has spent the last several months airing negative commercials against Democrat Jaime Harrison, but the incumbent is switching things up a bit with some positive messaging. The ad extols Graham for securing money to expand the Port of Charleston and declares: “He’s challenged America’s enemies and defended our strongest allies, while protecting the values important to us all.”

● Polls:

  • AZ-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies: Mark Kelly (D): 52, Martha McSally (R-inc): 35 (47-42 Biden) (Early Sept.: 53-38 Kelly)
  • AZ-Sen: Siena for The New York Times: Kelly (D): 50, McSally (R-inc): 42 (49-40 Biden)
  • ME-Sen: Siena for The New York Times: Sara Gideon (D): 44, Susan Collins (R-inc): 40, Max Lind (I): 2, Lisa Savage (I): 2 (55-38 Biden)
  • MI-Sen: EPIC-MRA: Gary Peters (D-inc): 45 John James (R): 41 (48-40 Biden) (July: 50-40 Peters)
  • MI-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies: Peters (D-inc): 51, James (R): 35 (49-39 Biden) (Early Sept.: 50-38 Peters)
  • NC-Sen: Redfield & Wilton Strategies: Cal Cunningham (D): 49, Thom Tillis (R-inc): 38 (47-45 Biden) (Early Sept.: 47-37 Cunningham)
  • NC-Sen: Siena for The New York Times: Cunningham (D): 42, Tillis (R-inc): 37 (45-44 Biden)

ME-Sen: After Siena simulated Maine’s instant runoff process, the pollster found Democrat Sara Gideon expanding her lead slightly to 49-44.

MI-Sen: Our Daily Kos Elections polling average, which does not yet include these two surveys, finds Democratic Sen. Gary Peters ahead 47-42, which is far closer to what EPIC-MRA finds than Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ results.

Gubernatorial

● NC-Gov: We have two new polls here:

Siena’s poll is one of Cooper’s closest showings over the last several months. The sample also shows Democrat Cal Cunningham up 42-37 in the Senate race, which makes this a rare poll where Cooper isn’t running well ahead of Cunningham. A recent SurveyUSA poll, though, also had Cooper and Cunningham leading by seven points each, so Siena isn’t alone in finding this.

House

● KY-06: Republican Rep. Andy Barr recently launched a commercial where he talked about his wife’s death after her struggles with a preexisting condition and argued he would “never support my opponent’s plan to put a bureaucrat between a patient with a pre-existing condition and their doctor,” and Democrat Josh Hicks is running a response commercial.

Hicks says of Barr: “The truth is, he voted over and over again to end protections for people with pre-existing conditions. People like my mom and my sister.” Hicks adds: “I can’t imagine the suffering he’s gone through with the loss of his wife, but that does not give him a license to lie.”

● NY-02: Republican Andrew Garbarino is airing his first general election ad, and it won’t surprise you to learn that he’s framing himself as an ardent supporter of the police. Garbarino name-drops  Republican Rep. Peter King and says that, like the retiring congressman, he’ll also “back the blue” in Congress.

● NY-11: End Citizens United’s new ad dubs Republican Nicole Malliotakis “Mallio-stock-is” and declares she “invested thousands of dollars in stock of an opioid manufacturer that was fined for pushing pills.”

The narrator continues: “In Albany, she could’ve cracked down on opioid makers, but instead of making a difference, Malliotakis tried to make a profit. She even supported giving drug companies billions in tax breaks.” Freshman Democratic Rep. Max Rose has also been running commercials arguing that, while he was serving in the armed forces, Malliotakis “was making blood money off the opioid companies that kill our kids.”  

● NY-24: Republicans have been running ad after ad framing Democrat Dana Balter as too far to the left on health care, while Balter has been airing commercials arguing that the district would benefit from her plan. Her newest spot has her looking into the camera and telling the audience: “Let’s talk about how we’re going to save you money on health care.”

Balter continues: “I’ll start by working with Joe Biden to make sure you have a choice between public and private insurance, give Medicare the power to negotiate lower prescription drug prices, and protect coverage for pre-existing conditions.” She adds: “We have to stop letting insurance and drug companies write their own rules.”

● PA-07: Republican Lisa Scheller is up with a commercial where she says of the Democratic incumbent, “Susan Wild sponsored a bill giving millions of taxpayer dollars to her own political campaign, using your money for negative ads and personal expenses.” The Morning Call‘s Laura Olson explains, though, that the legislation Scheller is attacking is the election reform bill HR 1, a groundbreaking voting rights bill that passed the House last year but predictably has stalled in the GOP-run Senate.

This act would, among many other things, create a voluntary public financing system for congressional campaigns. Olson says that, despite what Scheller insists, this legislation would not allow candidates to use any of that money for “personal expenses,” which are already prohibited by federal law.

● SC-01: House Majority PAC and the League of Conservation Voters are out with a new $360,000 ad buy against Republican Nancy Mace. The commercial declares that Mace received $25,000 from “corporate polluters,” with the narrator continuing: “Polluters contaminate our water with cancer-causing chemicals. No wonder Mace opposed legislation that would permanently ban drilling of our coastline.”

● TX-02: Democrat Sima Ladjevardian has released her opening general election commercials in both English and Spanish, and she narrates each spot.

In her English ad, Ladjevardian declares: “It was at a pharmacy just like this where I was charged $1,000 for one pill. Who can afford that?” She goes on to say, “After beating breast cancer, I have no problem beating the special interests,” and pledges to fight for lower healthcare costs and to help businesses. The commercial does not mention freshman Republican Rep. Dan Crenshaw.

● TX-24: Republican Beth Van Duyne uses her opening general election ad to adopt the Trump-driven suburban strategy that so far has floundered and argues that her Democratic foe is a threat to public safety. Van Duyne tells the audience that Democrat Candace Valenzuela “sides with radicals to defund the police and end cash bail.” Valenzuela has campaigned on ending cash bail, but she’s opposed defunding the police.

● Polls:

  • FL-15: GQR (D) for Alan Cohn: Scott Franklin (R): 49. Alan Cohn (D): 42 (48-48 presidential tie)
  • ME-02: Siena for The New York Times: Jared Golden (D-inc): 56, Dale Crafts (R): 37 (47-45 Biden)
  • MO-02: Normington Petts (D) for House Majority PAC: Ann Wagner (R-inc): 49, Jill Schupp (D): 49 (49-46 Biden)
  • PA-17: OnMessage (R) for Sean Parnell: Conor Lamb (D-inc): 45, Sean Parnell (R): 44
  • VA-05: GSG (D) for 314 Action: Bob Good (R): 47, Cameron Webb (D): 46 (51-43 Trump)

FL-15: This is the first survey we’ve seen of the contest between Republican Scott Franklin and Democrat Alan Cohn, who each won competitive primaries about a month ago.

While Cohn trails here, he’s arguing that he’ll be able to run a strong race for this seat, which includes the mid-sized city of Lakeland and the exurbs of Tampa and Orlando. The poll finds a presidential tie in a seat that Donald Trump took 53-43 four years ago, and the memo says that Cohn only narrowly trails Franklin “after voters hear balanced positive information on both candidates.”

ME-02: This is Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s best showing in any of the four polls we’ve seen since Dale Crafts won the Republican primary in July, though he’s led in all of them. Interestingly, Golden’s smallest edge was in a late August LOC Wick survey from his allies at Left of Center PAC, and it still showed him up 50-44 even as Donald Trump led 49-48. This northern Maine seat supported Trump 51-41 in 2016.

MO-02: We’ve only seen one other survey of this suburban St. Louis seat in the last six months, and it was also for HMP. In mid-August, Public Policy Polling had Democrat Jill Schupp leading Republican Rep. Ann Wagner 48-45, which was a bit better than what Normington Petts sees. Trump carried this district 53-42, but it has been moving to the left in recent years.

PA-17: This is the very first poll we’ve seen of the contest for this suburban Pittsburgh seat. Republican Sean Parnell’s campaign says that unreleased polls from March and July had Democratic Rep. Conor Lamb ahead 54-36 and 50-41, respectively. Just like in most Republican polls released this year, though, there are no presidential numbers here.

HMP has $1.3 million reserved for this seat, which backed Trump 49-47 but was very friendly turf for Team Blue in 2018, while national Republicans have yet to book anything. The Washington Post wrote of Parnell recently that “national Republican groups have clear doubts about his candidacy and have not booked ads to benefit his campaign,” and we’ll see if this survey helps change any minds.

VA-05: The memo for 314 Action, which backs Democrat Cameron Webb, said that he’s made gains since August, when an unreleased poll had Good and Trump up 48-42 and 49-45, respectively.

We’ve seen two other polls of this central Virginia seat, which went for Trump 53-42, and they’ve both come from Democratic groups. In late June, a Public Policy Polling survey taken for 314 right after Webb won the primary showed Good up 43-41. In early August, a GSG internal for Webb also had Good leading by a very similar 44-42.

● Ad Reservations: The Texas Tribune reports that the NRCC has reserved a total of $6 million in the Dallas, Odessa, and San Antonio media markets in Texas. We’ve assembled this new data into a spreadsheet and added it to our reservations tracker.

Data

● Governor-by-LD, Senate-by-LD: Daily Kos Elections has added the 2018 U.S. Senate and governor results calculated by congressional and legislative districts for California, Massachusetts, Montana, and Washington. You can find the data at the above links as well as at our master list of statewide election results by congressional and legislative district, which we’ll be updating as we add new states. Additionally, you can find all our data from 2018 and past cycles here.

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