Nuts & Bolts—Inside the Democratic party: Stop counting on young people to bail out the party

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This week in the Nuts & Bolts Guide to the Democratic party, we should take some time to discuss why the Democratic party should not count on young people bailing out the party when election time comes. 

There are several significant problems with this analysis, but some of the conclusions are also incorrect. Many conclusions revolve around voter registration efforts, turnout efforts, and making sure we motivate young people to get out there and work in campaigns. This all sounds great, but it is missing the biggest component: listening. Votes are not guaranteed, votes are earned. The process of earning votes means you reflectively listen and you act accordingly. 

Young people are with us!

Do you know how often I hear this phrase? I have heard this off and on for decades. Young people will reach voting age, and they will vote Democratic, and the tide will turn on Republicans. There are some significant problems with this analysis. The first is problem is the assumption of how many young people are Democratic to begin with, as many grow up as, and are as a result, cradle Republicans. Small town residents live in a fairly insulated world where everyone around them has common cause, and that cause is often Republican. It is very difficult to develop empathy for people you don’t see or have experience with.

Just saying out loud that “young people are with us” is also a terrible way to take votes for granted. Campaigns come to the conclusion early that young people do not vote. Statistically, there is truth to this in every election cycle. Youth turnout is far lower than the turnout percentages you see as you get older. This means that the older electorate has an oversized input in the outcome of an election. The cycle gets serious. Some people then say: “Well, they aren’t voting, but they are with us.” Let me explains what happens: Young people are with us on social issues and the state of the country by and large. They reject Trumpism. When it comes to turning out votes, though, we run into a problem. Let’s say that we have a room full of 100 people under 25. The group is 60% Democratic, 40% Republican. Fine. So, 60/40 members. Republicans turn out 87% of their vote, roughly 34 votes. Democrats turn out roughly 63% of the vote. That’s roughly 38 votes. What began as a 20-vote bump turned into a bump of four votes.

What causes the percentage drop?

The answer is simple: Young voters can be excited and interested. The year 2018 is a perfect example of that outcome. What caused that excitement and that outcome? I would contend that part of it is that candidates directly addressed issues young people care about. If you want votes, you have to reflectively listen, understand, and put forward something that shows you took the concerns seriously. CNN recently documented this:

Even more important may be Biden finding ways to generate more progress than he has so far on issues important to younger generations, particularly combating climate change and reducing the burden of student debt.

We spend so much time moving away from issues or not talking about them because campaigns are concerned that it will turn off older voters. Rarely considered is that the failure to address these issues can completely turn off young voters who will simply sit at home. That outcome is devastating for Democratic campaigns.

In 2020, nearly 50% of young people turned out and voted. That is up significantly from 39% in 2016. That turnout helped make a difference in several states. 

Youth turnout in midterms is typically miserable. In 2014, youth turnout was roughly 13%. In 2018, when Democratic candidates swept into the House, youth turnout surged to nearly 28%, doubling prior performance. The result? Democratic candidates took the house back. 

Talk to them

There is a simple lesson for the party here: Talk to young people like human beings. This should not be difficult. You can excite young people to get behind you and go quite far in the right turnout. Address issues seriously and be committed to them. 

Instead of chasing moderate Republican voters, work hard to get young voters to turn up in a midterm by talking to them about their concerns. Be serious and open about why their future matters. 

We take for granted that young people will save the party, and candidates don’t listen or get involved, so we cause young voters to feel jaded and left out. Inclusion builds better campaigns and a better party.