Independent News
Ukraine update: What are combined arms, and why are they so hard?
This post was originally published on this site
You’ll hear “combined arms” thrown around a lot by war analysts. It’s the ability to combine infantry, armor, artillery, aviation, engineering, and support units to successfully prosecute a war. You’ll see people like me laugh at Russians for throwing unsupported infantry in this attack, then unsupported armor in that other attack. So in a way, this is easy to explain. But really, no one has done a better job of really driving home the explanation than this guy, a British paratrooper, in this thread.
The thread continues, because we still have air defense, transport aircraft, combat engineers, medical, logistics, mechanics, and so on. Running an army is insanely complex, which is why we’ve long talked about my 15% rule: When looking at the size of the army, only 15% shoot stuff. The other 85% support the people who shoot stuff. This is what the officers’ tent looks like, as the commanders of all these components work together to devise their battle plans:
These disparate components are deadly on their own, but vulnerable. Get them to work together, and you have an effective fighting force. Russia can’t pull it off. Who the hell knows what their officers discuss in meetings like the one above. Ukraine really hasn’t needed combined arms thus far—playing defense is much easier than going on the offensive. Hopefully all that NATO training the last eight years has gotten them ready for the inevitable future counterattacks.
Let’s revisit this story, when 40 American special forces and Marines held off 500 mostly Russian and Syrian Wagner mercenaries somewhere in the Syrian desert. The Russian forces, including 27 armored vehicles and artillery, hit the American outpost at 10 PM with everything in one apparent frontal assault. After 15 minutes of trying to talk the assailants into retreating, the Americans unleashed.
First came waves of Reaper drones, F-22 stealth fighter jets, F-15E Strike Fighters, B-52 bombers, AC-130 gunships, and AH-64 Apache helicopters. The air component. Meanwhile, a 16-person reaction force in armored personnel carriers sped toward the outpost to reinforce the 24 Americans under assault. So 40, facing an enemy 500 strong.
A handful of Marines ran ammunition to machine guns and Javelin missile launchers scattered along the berms and wedged among the trucks. Some of the Green Berets and Marines took aim from exposed hatches. Others remained in their trucks, using a combination of thermal screens and joysticks to control and fire the heavy machine guns affixed on their roofs.
A few of the commandos, including Air Force combat controllers, worked the radios to direct the next fleet of bombers flying toward the battlefield. At least one Marine exposed himself to incoming fire as he used a missile guidance computer to find targets’ locations and pass them on to the commandos calling in the airstrikes.
When the dust settled, 200 to 300 Russians and Syrians lay dead. Not a single American was hurt. Not even one boo-boo! That’s what combined arms is. In this case, light armor, infantry, and air took care of the situation. Had artillery been nearby, they would’ve joined the action, likely shortening the battle significantly.
That’s what wins battles and wars, and Russia simply can’t pull it off. It’s hard, it’s complicated, it requires quality leadership and the resources to practice, evaluate, and practice again, But large training exercises are expensive, no one can grift off them, and a general might look bad if something goes wrong. Meanwhile, American soldiers drill this so extensively, coordinating during the extreme stress of combat was like muscle memory.
The best Russia can do is snatch men off the streets of Donbas, up to the age of 60, and throw them at Ukrainian positions in human waves. More of that in a future update.
Wednesday, Apr 27, 2022 · 1:16:02 PM +00:00
·
Mark Sumner
Multiple reports on Wednesday indicate that Russia appears to be serious about making a move toward Kryvyi Rih. Forces are reportedly being massed west of the Dnipro River to the north of Kherson, and villages in the area — some of them only recently retaken by Ukrainian forces — were shelled over the last day.
Notice that, just in this one small area of the war, Russia is also attempting to push toward Mykolaiv from the south, and toward Zaporizhzhia on the north. This is in addition to the multiple attempts to push from the east. Russia appears to be once again attempting to operate a at least a half dozen advances, all at once, and the one on Kryvyi Rih appears to have no good reason other than the fact that it’s Zelenskyy’s home town.
Wednesday, Apr 27, 2022 · 1:46:29 PM +00:00
·
Mark Sumner
Meanwhile, in the area of Izyum, Russia also seems to be launching multiple, narrow assaults.
Some of the difference between this map and yesterday represents genuine Russian gains west of Izyum. Some of it comes from failure to recognize changes that took place in the previous 24 hours. But Russia is currently engaged in an attempt to move west along the road that — assuming they could hold a couple of hundred miles more supply lines — would eventually reach Dnipro. They’re also moving southwest in a route that looks as its designed to cut off the entire oblast by running down to Donetsk. And they’re moving south in a direction that might allow them to surround Kramatorsk. And they’re continuing an attempt to break through the eastern lines at multiple points.
Some intelligence agencies are still reporting that Russia hasn’t launched their “big attack” in the east — but it seems easy to believe that this is it. Just as they’ve done from day one of this invasion, Russia has simply been unable to mass forces and coordinate behind anything that looks like a strong, unified push.
Morning Digest: Trump's man in Georgia keeps flogging election conspiracies as his campaign craters
This post was originally published on this site
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot!
Leading Off
● GA-Gov, GA-Sen, GA-SoS: A new survey from the University of Georgia for the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is the latest poll to find Gov. Brian Kemp cruising to renomination in the May 24 GOP primary, with Kemp holding a 53-27 lead over Big Lie proponent David Perdue and earning the majority needed to avoid a June primary runoff against the former senator. This latest survey is one of Kemp’s best results so far from any pollster and marks a significant improvement for him from UGA’s last poll taken in late March and early April, which found Kemp ahead 48-37. Still, every other recent poll here has also found Kemp with a sizable lead.
Perdue has failed to gain traction in the polls despite Donald Trump’s endorsement, but that hasn’t stopped his zealotry for spreading Trump’s 2020 election conspiracy theories from shaping the race. Perdue and his allies have run ad after ad spreading the Big Lie that Trump was cheated in 2020 and chastising Kemp for failing to help Trump steal the contest, and Perdue’s opening statement in Sunday’s debate reiterated his bogus accusation of election theft. Kemp, meanwhile, has focused his campaign message on reminding voters that Perdue’s re-election defeat makes him a proven loser and touting the governor’s record on bread and butter conservative issues such as immigration, crime, and taxes.
In the Senate primary, UGA’s poll does have unambiguously good news for the Trump-backed candidate: Former NFL star Herschel Walker has a 66-7 edge over his closest rival, state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, which is little different than his 64-8 lead in their previous poll.
Looking further downballot in the GOP primary for secretary of state, another of Trump’s endorsees running a campaign focused on 2020 election denial has found more success than in the governor’s race, but UGA’s latest poll finds it is no sure thing. Their survey shows incumbent Brad Raffensperger holding a 28-26 lead over Rep. Jody Hice, who has Trump’s backing, which marks an improvement for the incumbent from Hice’s 30-23 advantage in UGA’s prior poll. However, Hice has done significantly better in one of the few other credible polls here from GOP firm Landmark Communications, which had Raffensperger trailing by a wide 35-18 earlier this month.
Trump’s election lies almost certainly aren’t going anywhere as a campaign topic regardless of the outcome of the primaries for secretary of state. One of the leading Democratic contenders, state Rep. Bee Nguyen, has focused her initial ad on her support for protecting voting rights against Trump’s attacks and previews what the general election message may look like.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Alabama Patriots PAC, which is backing Army veteran Mike Durant in the May 24 GOP primary, has reported spending more than $3 million on his behalf thus far.
● FL-Sen: Former Donald Trump operative Roger Stone, whom Trump pardoned in December 2020 after he was convicted on several felony charges of obstructing Congress’ investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election, said he isn’t ruling out a primary bid against GOP Sen. Marco Rubio over the latter’s vote against overturning the 2020 election outcome. Stone, however, hardly looks like a serious candidate: even he conceded that he wasn’t the ideal challenger and implored someone else to run. Stone had also mulled running for governor as an independent to stymie Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis before acknowledging he was barred from doing so by state law preventing recent party switchers from running for office.
● OH-Sen: Democratic firm Blueprint Polling has released a poll finding that the May 3 GOP primary is still up in the air with 33% undecided and no candidate topping 20%. The pollster, who did not disclose who, if anyone, was their client, shows state Sen. Matt Dolan with a slim 18-17 lead over venture capitalist J.D. Vance, while businessman Mike Gibbons earns 13%, former state Treasurer Josh Mandel takes 12%, and former state party chair Jane Timken wins just 7%.
This is the first survey from any outfit this cycle showing Dolan in first, but with all three other polls disclosed this month from reputable firms each finding three different leaders and many voters still undecided, it’s another sign of just how uncertain the outcome of next week’s vote is.
Governors
● MI-Gov: Republican Rep. Jack Bergman, whose 1st District covers the Upper Peninsula and northernmost portion of the Lower Peninsula, has switched his endorsement in the August GOP primary from former Detroit Police Chief James Craig to self-funding businessman Perry Johnson. In doing so, Bergman complained that Craig ignored “campaigning in Northern Michigan and the U.P. in favor of a self proclaimed Detroit-centric approach.”
● NE-Gov: The Republican firm Data Targeting has conducted a survey of the May 10 GOP primary for Neilan Strategy Group, which says it’s not working on behalf of any candidate or allied group, that shows state Sen. Brett Lindstrom taking a narrow lead for the first time in a very expensive and ugly race where he’d largely been overshadowed.
The firm shows Lindstrom edging out Trump-backed agribusinessman Charles Herbster 28-26, with University of Nebraska Regent Jim Pillen, who is termed-out Gov. Pete Ricketts’ endorsed candidate, just behind with 24%; former state Sen. Theresa Thibodeau lags far behind in fourth with 6%. Back in mid-February, the firm showed Herbster edging out Pillen 27-26, with Lindstrom taking third with 21%.
This new poll is the first we’ve seen conducted since the Nebraska Examiner published an April 14 story where Republican state Sen. Julie Slama and seven other women accused Herbster of groping and other forms of sexual assault; Herbster denied the allegations and soon went up with a commercial claiming “the establishment” was lying about him just like they supposedly did with Trump. Unsurprisingly, Trump himself has stuck behind his man, and he’s scheduled to hold a rally with him on Friday.
While no other polls have found Lindstrom in first place, there were previously signs that his detractors were treating him as a serious threat even though he lacked the money and big-named endorsements that Pillen and Herbster have available. (Lindstrom’s most prominent supporter is arguably Omaha Mayor Jean Stothert.) A group called Restore the Good Life began running ads against the state senator weeks ago that portrayed him as wrong on taxes, while another outfit called Say No to RINOs launched its own spots in mid-April saying, “Liberal Brett Lindstrom is no conservative, he just plays one on TV.”
But perhaps most tellingly, Conservative Nebraska, a super PAC funded in part by Ricketts, recently began running its own spots using similar arguments against Lindstrom after it previously focused on attacking Herbster only. The termed-out governor himself joined in the pile-on, characterizing Lindstrom as “a liberal (who) does not have a conservative voting record in the Legislature.” The state senator, for his part, said last week that he wouldn’t be running negative ads against Pillen and Hebster.
● PA-Gov: State Attorney General Josh Shapiro, who is unopposed in the May 17 Democratic primary, has laid out $950,000 of the $16 million his campaign recently had on hand to air his first two ads. The first commercial is a minute-long spot that devotes its first half to Shapiro’s biography, referencing his Pennsylvania roots, family values, and the importance of his Jewish faith, while the second part highlights his record of keeping taxes low when serving in local office and how he has “taken on powerful institutions” as attorney general.
The second spot expands on the latter theme, featuring a nurse praising Shapiro’s work going after predatory student loan companies like the one that she says tried to rip her off.
● WI-Gov: Wealthy businessman Tim Michels, who announced a sizable ad buy when he joined the GOP primary over the weekend, will spend $980,000 on his initial ads, though no copy of a spot is available yet.
House
● FL-04: Navy veteran Erick Aguilar this week became the first notable Republican to announce a bid for the new 4th District, a Jacksonville area constituency that would be open should incumbent John Rutherford run for the 5th as fellow Republicans expect. The new 4th would have supported Trump 53-46.
Aguilar himself had been waging a second primary bid against Rutherford, who beat him in an 80-20 landslide two years before, before redistricting changed things. But while Aguilar’s doomed first campaign brought in all of $16,000, his second try is a far better-funded affair: Aguilar raised $320,000 during the first quarter of 2022, and he ended March with a hefty $812,000 on hand thanks in part to earlier self-funding.
● FL-23: Republican state Rep. Chip LaMarca has announced that he won’t run to succeed retiring Democratic Rep. Ted Deutch in the new 23rd District, which contains most of Deutch’s existing 22nd District.
● IL-03: SEIU Local 1, which represents maintenance workers, has backed Chicago Alderman Gilbert Villegas in the June Democratic primary.
● IL-17: SEIU Illinois, which represents more than 170,000 public sector employees and workers in private service sectors statewide, has endorsed former state Rep. Litesa Wallace in the June Democratic primary, which has no clear frontrunner yet. Wallace faces a field that includes former TV meteorologist Eric Sorensen, Rockford Alderman Jonathan Logemann, and Rockford Alderwoman Linda McNeely.
● OH-11: Democratic Majority for Israel is airing its first negative spot of the year against former state Sen. Nina Turner ahead of her Democratic primary rematch next week against Rep. Shontel Brown. The narrator faults Turner for not supporting Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump in 2016 before declaring that the challenger “said voting for Biden was like eating ****.” (The screen flashes the words “EATING S**T.”) The super PAC, which recently began running positive commercials for Brown, has spent close to $600,000 so far.
● OR-06: In an effort to unravel why billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried’s super PAC, Protect Our Future, has spent more than $7 million so far boosting first-time candidate Carrick Flynn’s quest for the Democratic nomination in Oregon’s brand-new 6th Congressional District, OPB’s Dirk VanderHart dives deep into the possible ties between the two men.
Most notably, Flynn’s wife, Kathryn Mecrow-Flynn, worked at an organization called the Center for Effective Altruism in 2017—the same time that Bankman-Fried served as the group’s director of development. Flynn has maintained he “has never met or talked to Sam Bankman-Fried”—by law, super PACs are forbidden from coordinating with campaigns they’re seeking to boost—and in response to VanderHart’s reporting, he said of his wife, “If she’s met him she hasn’t said anything. I think she would have said something.”
VanderHart also points out that Bankman-Fried’s younger brother, Gabe Bankman-Fried, runs yet another super PAC called Guarding Against Pandemics that has likewise endorsed Flynn; it so happens that the president of Protect Our Future, Michael Sadowsky, also works for Guarding Against Pandemics. Gabe Bankman-Fried offered effusive praise for Flynn in remarks to VanderHart, though he insisted he “could not comment” on the interest shown in Flynn by his older sibling, who has not said anything about the candidate publicly.
● TX-28: Attorney Jessica Cisneros is focusing on abortion rights in her first spot for the May 24 Democratic primary runoff against conservative Rep. Henry Cuellar, a topic the Texas Tribune says she didn’t run many spots on during the first round. The narrator declares that Cuellar sided with Texas Republicans when they “passed the most extreme abortion ban in the country,” characterizing the incumbent as “the lone Democrat against a woman’s right to make her own decisions, even opposing life-saving care.”
Cuellar’s new ad, meanwhile, features people praising him for having “kept our businesses open during the pandemic and reduced taxes” and funding law enforcement and border security, language that’s usually more at home in GOP ads. The commercial then pivots to the left by commending him as a champion of healthcare and affordable college. One elderly woman goes on to make the case that he’s vital for the district, saying, “Henry helps us with prescriptions and Social Security benefits. If we lose him in Congress, we lose everything.”
Cuellar goes into the final weeks of the runoff with a cash-on-hand lead over Cisneros, but she’s managed to close much of what had been a massive gap. Cuellar ended March with a $1.4 million to $1 million edge, while he enjoyed a $2.3 million to $494,000 advantage three months before.
● TX-30: The cryptocurrency-aligned group Web3 Forward has reported a $250,000 ad buy ahead of the May 24 Democratic primary runoff to support state Rep. Jasmine Crockett, who came just shy of winning the nomination outright last month with a 48-17 lead over party operative Jane Hamilton. Web3 Forward may have more where that came from if the initial primary, where they and another crypto-oriented group had already spent over $2 million aiding Crockett, was any indication.
Attorneys General
● KS-AG: Former Secretary of State Kris Kobach has released a survey from WPA Intelligence arguing that he’s well-positioned to win the August Republican primary for attorney general and revive his career following his disastrous bids for governor and Senate. The firm shows Kobach taking 52% in the race to succeed Derek Schmidt, who is leaving to run for governor, with state Sen. Kellie Warren and former federal prosecutor Tony Mattivi far behind with 12% and 7%, respectively. The Democrats are fielding attorney Chris Mann, a former prosecutor who currently faces no serious intra-party opposition.
Mayors
● Los Angeles, CA Mayor: City Attorney Mike Feuer is spending about $1 million on an opening TV and digital buy for the June nonpartisan primary, which his strategist acknowledges to the Los Angeles Times is “pretty close” to all they have available. The spot features the candidate, who took just 2% in a recent UC Berkeley poll, walking a dachshund (who at one point rides a skateboard while leashed) through the city as a song proclaims him the “underdog.” Feuer tells the audience, “Even with the most experience, being outspent 30 to 1 could make the odds of becoming mayor … well, long. But L.A.’s a city of underdogs.”
Billionaire developer Rick Caruso, who had the airwaves to himself until now, has run numerous ads focused on crime without mentioning any of his rivals, but one of his most prominent allies will soon be going after his main competitor. The Los Angeles Police Protective League, which is the city’s well-funded police union, has so far given $500,000 to a new super PAC opposed to Democratic Rep. Karen Bass.
Prosecutors
● Maricopa County, AZ Attorney: Anni Foster, who is Gov. Doug Ducey’s general counsel, has dropped out of the August special Republican primary and endorsed Rachel Mitchell, who was appointed interim county attorney last week. The nomination contest still includes Gina Godbehere, who recently announced that she was stepping down as prosecutor for the City of Goodyear in order to concentrate on her campaign.
Ad Roundup
Dollar amounts reflect the reported size of ad buys and may be larger.
- CO-Sen: Joe O’Dea (R)
- GA-Sen: Gary Black (R) – anti-Herschel Walker (R), backed by $37,000
- GA-Sen: Latham Sadler (R) – anti-Walker (R)
- OH-Sen: Josh Mandel (R) – anti-J.D. Vance (R)
- AL-Gov: Kay Ivey (R-inc)
- IL-Gov: Darren Bailey (R)
- CO-08: Jan Kulmann (R), backed by $50,000
Daily Kos/Civiqs poll: Majority of younger Democrats say Biden has not kept campaign promises
This post was originally published on this site
The best antidote for hot takes is hard data, and the latest Daily Kos/Civiqs poll is here with your cure. This survey of 1,248 registered voters was conducted online from April 23-26 and reveals that 67% of Democrats in the 18-34 age cohort believe that President Joe Biden has failed to deliver on a lot of the promises he made during his campaign. Democrats aged 18-34 also thought Biden was going to do more to help people like them (62%). In contrast, only 9% of older Democrats aged 65+ feel that Biden has not delivered on his campaign promises.
The poll also reinforced that Americans’ views on transgender rights and related issues are sharply divided along party lines. A whopping 83% of Democrats understand that trans people face discrimination; a mere 5% of Republicans think they do. When it comes to anti-transgender laws being passed at the state level, the divide is similarly stark: 82% of Democrats believe that measures preventing transgender youth from receiving gender-affirming medical care are hurting these kids, versus a scant 14% of Republicans.
Other noteworthy findings in this month’s poll include:
- Mandating mask-wearing on public transportation is an extremely partisan issue: 84% of Democrats support it (60% strongly, 24% somewhat), while just 7% of Republicans do (3% strongly, 4% somewhat).
- Anti-LGBTQ book censorship is similarly partisan: 83% of Democrats believe that their local classrooms and libraries should contain books with characters who are gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender; 11% of Republicans believe this.
Additional issues surveyed include Biden’s handling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, cryptocurrency, and viewership of Fox News, Newsmax, One America News Network, and MSNBC.
This poll’s results highlight younger Democrats’ acute disappointment in the as-yet-unfulfilled promises made by Biden on the campaign trail.
This month’s survey also provides strong evidence that frequent Fox News viewers are deeply disconnected from mainstream Americans. Despite the fact that just 41% of Americans believe that trans people want ‘special treatment,’ fully 76% of frequent Fox viewers believe this lie.
Civiqs is an award-winning survey research firm that conducts scientific public opinion polls on the internet through its nationally representative online survey panel. Founded in 2013, Civiqs specializes in political and public policy polling. Results from Civiqs’ daily tracking polls can be found online at civiqs.com.
This week on The Brief: Lessons from Wisconsin and why public education is Republicans’ 'glass jaw'
This post was originally published on this site
This week on The Brief, hosts Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld discussed updates on the situation in Ukraine before pivoting to talk about the political landscape for Democrats in Wisconsin, a crucial swing state that will also be a big battleground later this year. To speak on these issues, they brought on guest Ben Wikler, chair of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin. As Wikler recently wrote of recent elections in Wisconsin, “In a 50/50 state, during a tough year for Democrats, we won more than we lost. Out of 276 races where WisDems actively engaged, investing in organizing, digital, and/or mail to voters, we won 147 of the races.”
Read on to learn more about what Democrats across the country can learn from this successful party committee!
For the first segment of the show, Moulitsas and Eleveld recapped the dynamic ground situation in Ukraine as Russia shifts its military strategy to press and close in on cities. As the conflict drags on and Ukraine receives more assistance to strengthen its military, Ukraine is only going to get stronger—Moulitsas noted—in stark contrast to Russia, whose military equipment is sorely lacking in quality: “These are like 40, 50 year old tanks. They’re not maintained, they’re in terrible shape … they’ll be able to cobble together a certain number, but their equipment is becoming older and less capable, while Ukraine’s equipment is actually NATO stock. It’s getting better and higher tech.”
The hosts then welcomed Wikler onto the show to offer his insights into Democratic messaging that works in Wisconsin and important takeaways from recent elections to keep in mind as we head towards November.
Wisconsin, a Rust Belt state that always seems to be close, will likely play a key role in how the midterm elections in November unfold. Wisconsin had the biggest slate of local elections the the country of this year on April 5, with no statewide candidates on the ballot—just school board candidates, county executives, county board, city council, “the folks who actually kind of do the work of making local government work.” Traditionally, these are nonpartisan elections. This time, however, the Republican Party [in Wisconsin] decided to go all in. As Wikler explained,
They predicted and expected and wanted to have a Red Wave across the state. Right wing top radio hosts started having slates of local candidates on their shows and publishing lists of local candidates to support on their websites … local Republican parties bought full page, front page ads listing candidates they endorsed and listing boilerplate Republican talking points about CRT and trans kids and open border laws—all their hot-button attempts to divide and distract and demonize and turn people against each other. They not only had the Republican Party transferring money into local county parties and into local candidates’ accounts—they also had the kind of dark money operations that you normally see in federal contests … and the biggest funders on the right poured their money into [attack ads].
“As we saw this happening, our side decided we were going to fight back,” Wikler added.
Much of the fight in Wisconsin has centered around public education and what children are being taught in schools. And that’s where Wisconsin Democrats decided to push back and take their fight to the Republicans. As Wikler elaborated, they ran local, digital ads that utilized the race-class narrative framework: start with a shared value, then explain what Republicans are doing and why they’re doing it, and then go to a call to come together and fight back against them:
The message was: ‘We all want schools where every child, no matter what they look like or where they live, can thrive. But Republicans are demonizing teachers, and parents, and students; banning books; and trying to divide us in order to advance their agenda of defunding public education. We need to come back, reject these divisive tactics, and elect people who actually believe in public schools so that our kids can have a chance at a better future.’
We ran those [ads] targeting Democratic voters in school board races all over the state, and the overwhelming share of [our] candidates in those races won those races, because we were providing a frame for what the Republicans were doing, and then making that into an attack that actually unites our side completely, which is well-funded, good public schools. And this is the deepest kind of division in Wisconsin politics going back to Scott Walker a decade ago—attacking teachers and massively defunding public education. It’s the Republicans’ glass jaw, and it is something where we still have a major advantage. And we cannot do the Virginia thing of effectively ceding education to Republicans. So we just punched back on this stuff.
Eleveld noted that as education is one of Democrats’ core issues, it can be a really important one to take a stand on to draw a contrast between Democratic values and Republicans’ poorly disguised attempts at defunding education:
[One of the reasons] Democrats have owned this issue for so long is because Democrats are known for wanting to fund education. And that was something, I think, that the Republicans in this culture war that they’re trying to push about, ‘Oh, you know, Democrats are trying to make you feel bad about being white; Democrats are trying to indoctrinate your kids,’ or whatever, it gets away from the fact that they don’t want to invest in education. I think that’s one thing that gets lost in that debate if you don’t see it.
Wikler agreed: “100%. And we have to point it out. We have to say, ‘Why are they demonizing public schools? Because they want to defund public education and close these schools down.’” Wikler also pointed out how unrealistic it is to give every kid a voucher to [go] to private school, especially given the fact that in rural areas, there are hardly any private schools to attend in the first place. The biggest Republican donors are also in lock-step supporting these attacks on public schools.
Democrats can strike back by taking Republican attacks and turning them into a counterattack on funding public schools, which is a deeply popular thing, Wikler recommended:
On the same day that there was this huge Republican effort to win these elections, we passed the overwhelming share of school funding referenda across the state of Wisconsin … And building on that core identification, even if people are panicked about the state of education in general, they overwhelmingly support and like the schools that their kids go to in their local community. It’s sort of like the way people feel about members of Congress. Our side is pro-school, and theirs is not. So it’s an area where we have a giant opportunity to punch back.
Wikler also thinks that the Republican strategy is a failing one, as every time they use the most divisive and incendiary and demonizing tactics to try to split people, and once they get power, they try to grab money out of public services that everyone relies on and transfer it to rich people. “That is the one thing that they do, every single time. Explaining that that’s their agenda and how we’re going to fight back against it is critical to how we’re going to win,” he concluded.
Moulitsas chimed in recalled what guest Jenifer Fernandez Ancona was saying last week about messaging and how Wikler’s words seemed aligned with what she had said:
It strikes me how the parallel to what she was really urging Democrats to do, and what you just said you yourself did, which was: First, you talk about what Democrats stand for, what our values are for, Two is, you point to the villain, right? The Republican Party and their values, how they’re trying to undermine everything that is good and wonderful. And then you have a hero, which is, ‘Together, we can come [together], we can vote these people out, we can save education.’
Given this and how the strategy Wikler described helped get the base out, what can we expect in the coming months? Moulitsas framed his question around how this messaging framework might resonate on a larger scale to meaningfully affect turnout: “This is the big fear about November. Can we get our base out? Looking at the results of this weirdly timed election, almost probably designed to minimize public participation, what does that tell you about November? Does it give you hope, do you think the success will carry over? Or is November going to be a whole different electorate, and you’ve got to just start from scratch and figure that out separately?”
Wikler cited several optimistic outcomes that he has seen that should give Democrats hope for November:
The total number of voters is very small. But here’s the really striking thing. In our spring election, the last time we had a spring election with no statewide candidate on the ballot … was 2014. And that year, there were only [505,000] Wisconsinites who voted. This time it was more than 940,000. It was an 86% uptick from the last time … The giant leap [happened in] the places where both sides joined the fight—the numbers shot up. And that’s what we’re going to see in the fall. I think the turnout will be incredibly high … [but] you have to explain the race, what the other side is doing. You have to ground it in a shared value, and you have to have a hero to empower voters to feel like they have the power to be able to make a difference … Wisconsin was the tipping point state in both of the last presidential elections. So you have to stop [anti-education] bills from going through, and [reelecting incumbent Tony Evers] as governor is the key to making that happen.
“We can do all that if we turn out all the Democratic voters we need to … there was record turnout in 2018 and 2020. It’s not about getting someone who’s a nonvoter who’s never voted to vote—although we want to do that too,” Wikler insisted. “But it’s critically to make sure folks that got engaged during the Trump era stay engaged in the fight. And we have to make clear in no uncertain terms to these voters that everything they voted for and fought for is absolutely on the line again in 2022.”
Moulitsas asked Wikler to share how viewers can help Wisconsin Democrats this fall. Wikler replied that interested parties could donate, volunteer, or work with the Wisconsin Democrats in this crucial cycle in the bellwether state. Wisconsin Democrats’ priorities remain consistent, and Wikler explained that the organization is going to spend the whole year calling individuals who voted absentee, as well as mobilizing and building teams across the state of Wisconsin who can talk to voters.
The full episode can be viewed below:
The Brief can also be found on the following platforms:
Cartoon: Madison Cawthorn
This post was originally published on this site
Consider supporting my work so I can continue creating it:
Patreon, Nick Anderson Newsletter, or another option
Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: The price of Putin's misplanning
This post was originally published on this site
Andrew Goodman/War on the Rocks:
PUTIN THE PLANNER
Still, there was no reason for Putin to act so long as Donald Trump was president. Putin saw Trump weakening NATO by bashing it verbally, questioning whether the United States should honor Article 5, and reportedly flirting with the idea of withdrawing completely. If NATO might self-destruct, then there was no need for Putin to act to prevent Ukraine from joining it.
Putin had to change his calculus after Trump’s defeat in 2020. Joe Biden took steps to reassure allies of the U.S. commitment to NATO. Although there was nothing in NATO’s official statements to suggest that Ukraine could or would obtain membership at a definite point in time, the change in the U.S. attitude towards the alliance, combined with Zelensky’s support for membership, meant that the Ukraine problem became more acute. The timing might appear to be coincidental, but just a few months after Biden took office, the Russian military build-up began on Ukraine’s borders. This development fits with Putin’s penchant for planning carefully before taking action. It also suggests that Putin may already have made the decision to invade.
Putin gets what he didn’t want: Ukraine army closer to West
The list of arms flowing to Ukraine is long and growing longer. It includes new American battlefield aerial drones and the most modern U.S. and Canadian artillery, anti-tank weapons from Norway and others, armored vehicles and anti-ship missiles from Britain and Stinger counter-air missiles from the U.S., Denmark and other countries.
If Ukraine can hold off the Russians, its accumulating arsenal of Western weapons could have a transformative effect in a country that has, like other former Soviet republics, relied mainly on arms and equipment from the Soviet era.
Chrissy Stroop/Open Democracy:
Is Hungary’s Viktor Orbán the US Christian Right’s new Vladimir Putin?
The fall of Putin’s star among US evangelicals leaves a void they may seek to fill with another strongman leader devoted to ‘family values’
In the summer of 2013, after my first of three academic years teaching at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration in Moscow, I was back in the American state of Indiana – the Republican stronghold in which I was born and raised, and whence the very evangelical former vice president, Mike Pence, also hails.
That same summer, Russian president Vladimir Putin signed his country’s ‘don’t say gay’ law, which banned the dissemination of “propaganda of non-traditional sexual relations” to minors (known in non-Orwellian language as life-saving information that LGBTQ children need to thrive).
I was at an outdoor concert in a suburb of Indianapolis with some of my evangelical relatives when this topic came up in conversation, and I distinctly remember how dismayed I was when one of them opined on how “refreshing” it was to see a political leader “finally standing up to the gay agenda”.
That was the moment it dawned on me that Putin’s star was on the rise with the American Christian Right, a phenomenon I began to observe systematically, and on which I eventually published commentary and policy research.
NY Times (in case you missed it with the extensive French election coverage):
Europe’s Far-Right Populists Suffer a Setback in Slovenia
The country’s prime minister, Janez Jansa, a Trump admirer, appears to have lost to centrist rivals.
With 95 percent of the vote counted in an election that the opposition called a “referendum on democracy,” results indicated that Mr. Jansa’s Slovenian Democratic Party, competing against 19 rival parties, had won around 24 percent of the vote. That is far behind the 34 percent of its main rival, the centrist Freedom Movement, meaning that Mr. Jansa is highly unlikely to keep his post as prime minister.
The results, showing that no single party won a clear majority, presage a period of political haggling as rival groups try to stitch together a stable coalition in parliament. That should be within reach of the Freedom Movement, led by a political newcomer, Robert Golob, a former energy company executive, with help from the Social Democrats and other smaller parties.
History and Energy: Understanding Germany’s Shameful Russia Policy
When the Russians invaded Ukraine at the end of February, it appeared to be a watershed moment for Germany. Yet two months on, the initial fighting talk by Chancellor Olaf Scholz has been replaced by pseudo-pacifism
This is a Zeitenwende moment, Scholz declared; Germany was at a “turning point.” He then pledged about $110 billion to bolster Germany’s stagnant military and raise defense spending to 2 percent of the country’s gross domestic product, which is nearly $3.7 trillion. This makes it the world’s fourth largest economy, behind the United States, China and Japan.
The day before, Scholz had reacted to the Russian invasion by suspending the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline that runs under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany. A week later, Germany agreed to transfer weapons systems to Ukraine, in what seemed a dramatic policy shift for the country.
However, two months on, it all seems to have dissipated as Germany has reverted to its pre-invasion vacillation, political stuttering and sanctimonious excuse-making.
Jonathan V Last/Bulwark:
Biden’s Handling of Ukraine Is the Most Successful American Intervention Since the Fall of the Berlin Wall
And voters refuse to give him credit for it.
At each stage of this conflict, there has been criticism of Biden from across the spectrum. At various points he’s been criticized for:
Not sending MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine.
Not imposing a No Fly Zone.
Not sending enough offensive weaponry.
But Biden’s challenge at each point has been to titrate the minimum-force necessary to achieve our objectives—because keeping that force as small as possible kept the risks of Putin escalating the conflict as small as possible.
And at each moment Biden has been correct. Again: Look at the facts on the ground. Kyiv is free. A quarter of the Russian forces are out of action. The Russian economy is contracting at a fantastic rate. There has been no escalation of the conflict.
Think of this as the diplomatic and military equivalent of Just-in-Time Theory. And Biden’s team has executed it with tremendous success. A level of success that just about no one—including me—thought would be possible in the weeks leading up to the invasion.
I’ll say it again: The single biggest American foreign policy success since the fall of the Berlin Wall.1
And yet the American people disapprove.
Adam Bass/Ordinary Times:
From Jackasses to Sad Sacks: Democrats Struggle in The Culture War
In a two-way war, the conflict is engaged by both sides, fighting for their goals and causes.
…
Clearly, the party has not heeded the words from former President Barack Obama to not let perfect be the enemy of good.
Even so, it appears that national Democrats would prefer to focus on anything else other than standing their ground and fighting the culture war.
If their fear is that it will sink their chances in 2022, the reality is that they were doomed from the start due the infamous midterm curse that the president’s party suffers.
If they are worried that the GOP will pivot to inflation again, then they are cowardly in taking the risk of not holding the opposition party’s feet to the fire.
People’s lives could be at stake, and doing nothing is simply unacceptable at this point.
Ukraine Update: When political goals trump military ones
This post was originally published on this site
As noted this morning, Russia went from attacking in too many axes during the war’s first season, to …. attacking in too many axes in this second phase.
Right now, Russia is attempting to advance toward:
- Mykolaiv
- Kryvyi Rih
- Zaprozhzhia
- Sievierodonetsk
- Slovyansk/Kramatorsk
- South, east, west, and northwest of Izyum (seriously)
- Pushing out from Donetsk
- Mariupol
Well, you can add Moldova to the list, as a series of Russian false-flags are laying the foundational groundwork to declare the breakaway region of Transnistria an independent nation, like Russia did with the two “republics” in the Donbas—Luhansk and Donetsk. Once done, Russia can justify yet another invasion, because this one is clearly going so well.
This lack of focus is truly hampering Russia’s war effort. Take a look at the Izyum salient, one of the rare corners of Ukraine where Russia seems to be getting its shit together. In today’s update, the Institute for the Study of War, the authors note that Russia seems to be getting its shit together:
Russian forces have adopted a sounder pattern of operational movement in eastern Ukraine, at least along the line from Izyum to Rubizhne. Russian troops are pushing down multiple roughly parallel roads within supporting distance of one another, allowing them to bring more combat power to bear than their previous practice had supported.
Rubizhne is to the east of Izyum, and it’s true, Russia seems to be making slow (bloody) progress southward. But take a look at where Russia gained territory today—it’s northwest of Izyum!
Here is Russia, finally moving and taking ground, and they decide to splinter off part of their force to make a move in an entirely different direction. There’s no strategic road or rail in that direction, no lines of communication to cut. Those forces are now forming a new salient exposed to artillery and ambushes from Ukrainian forces to its west. Are they trying to push Ukrainian artillery out of range of the main supply lines north of Izyum? Maybe, but that line can easily be hit further north, and like everything else this war, this push is unlikely to be fully resourced to both hold this territory, and keep pushing. And by diluting the invading force, Ukrainian defenders have an easier time eliminating them.
And that’s not all! There are two additional pushes from the Izyum salient—one to the east, toward Slovyansk, which makes total sense. If it’s successful, it would connect to Russian forces to the east and Izyum would no longer be a salient, dependent on those exposed supply lines.
But there is another push, this one to the southwest, toward Barvinkove.
The objective of the Russian advance toward Barvinkove is not immediately obvious, as it leads Russian troops further away from their comrades pushing on Slovyansk. The road continues southeast from Barvinkove to the Donetsk Oblast boundary, however, and it is possible that Russian forces from the Izyum axis are meant to take up positions along much of the boundary to support claims that Russia has “secured the borders of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts” even if the Russians have not actually secured the entire oblast itself.
Russia has irrationally pushed toward Kryvyi Rih down south, seemingly because it’s Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s home town. This seems to be a similar situation—a move based on political calculations, rather than sound military strategy. The best way to “secure the border of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts” would be to destroy all Ukrainian defenders in those oblasts. But if Vladimir Putin want to park some troops on a border hamlet to declare victory, who will dissuade him of the notion? So Russia’s formidable formation splinters even further.
Same with Russians dying trying to storm the Ukrainian-held fortress at the massive Azovstal steel factory in Mariupol. Russia’s best bet would be to contain those Ukrainians as best as possible, and divert the rest of the forces elsewhere to the front. Putin even claimed that was the plan. But Russian forces haven’t left Mariupol in meaningful numbers and haven’t stopped assaulting the plant. Putin wants full control of the city for his May 9 victory parade, no matter the cost in lives. (Most are Chechen or Donbas conscripts anyway, so Putin cares even less.)
And what the hell are those sudden provocations in Moldova? Russia thinks more war is justified, given the current state of his armed forces? If you think Ukraine’s supply lines are stretched, just imagine trying to resupply forces in yet another country, with no port access for ocean resupply, and airspace contested by Ukrainian defenses. As Kamil Galeev has repeatedly written, Putin (and any Russian leader) derives domestic credibility by promising empire. He was never going to stop at Ukraine, and he wouldn’t stop at Moldova. Georgia can’t be feeling so great. And even supposed ally Kazakhstan canceled its own May 9 celebration, apparently to keep forces available for a possible Russian invasion. How can you trust the neighbor who keeps saying your independence from the Soviet Union was illegal
Meanwhile, down south:
I keep describing this area as a tug-of-war in a mudpile, with the two countries trading territory on a near-daily basis. The terrain is flat, open, and unforgiving for exposed forces. Anyone pokes their nose too far outside of home base, and artillery pushes them back. I mean, look at it, the only cover in sight are some cherry blossoms!
Snihurivika, to the north of Kherson was Russian occupied soon after the fall of Kherson. Then Ukraine took it in their big offensive that pushed Russia out from the Mykolaiv area and ended Russia’s designs on Odesa. Then Russia grabbed it back a couple of weeks ago. And here we are today, with Ukraine just outside the town once again. Meanwhile, to the west of Kherson, Russia pushed Ukraine out of Oleksandrivka again for what must be the third time. Don’t worry! Ukraine will pound the town into dust with artillery, Russia will retreat, Ukraine will move in, and the cycle will begin once again.
Of course, you might wonder, “why is Russia devoting resources to retaking the approaches to Mykolaiv, when it’s supposed to be focusing on the Donbas region, but also pushing toward Kryvyi Rih and threatening Moldova?”
Yes. Exactly. Why?
As usual, none of it makes sense.
Plot twist! Belorussian dictator Alexander Lukashenko might actually be the smart one.
Turns out, Putin needs Lukashenko more than the other way around.
What was I saying about artillery and the wide open expanses of the Kherson region?
Those Ukrainians in the trenches above in Kherson region are lucky that Russia is so corrupt and incompetent, that they can’t do air fuses, that would explode above the ground, showering those trenches with shrapnel. The amazing story in this thread:
Barrage of gunshots leaves kids, parents scrambling for cover at a youth baseball game, video shows
This post was originally published on this site
A chilling video of an incident in North Charleston, South Carolina, showing dozens of kids and adults scrambling for cover as a barrage of gunshots rings out has left a community traumatized.
In the video, as gunfire is heard, a frightening scene unfolds Monday night at the Dixie Youth league baseball game, leaving players, coaches, and parents running for safety. The video was taken by Lori Ferguson, a parent at the game, The Post and Courier reports.
North Charleston police report that no one was injured, according to ABC News-4, but one of the team’s coaches took immediate action to petition that games no longer be played in North Charleston due to recent violence in the area.
RELATED STORY: Report: 2020 marks first time guns were the leading cause of death for kids and teens
SEE THE VIDEO BELOW:
Witnesses told officers that prior to the gunshots, several teens pulled into the parking lot next to the baseball field and began fighting.
Blake Ferguson told WCSC-5 News he believes he heard between 50 to 75 shots before the teens drove off.
“And then all of a sudden, boom, boom, and ‘Get down, everybody, get down!’ And you’re at a park. My kids are not with me directly and you just see everybody scattering,” Lori Ferguson told WCSC. “And my son’s on the pitcher mound by himself and it was just the most traumatic thing as a mother, as a citizen of this city, that you just feel helpless. I felt completely helpless.”
Listen and subscribe to Daily Kos Elections’ The Downballot podcast with David Nir and David Beard
Ferguson says she was disappointed by the police response, telling WCSC that none of the officers came to the field to check on families or players, adding that her children were “traumatized” by the incident.
“Now, I understand we could walk down the street, something could happen. We could be at church, something can happen. One-hundred percent understand that,” she told WCSC. “My kids asked me where the police were to protect them. They didn’t want to take a shower, in our own home, because now they’re traumatized by what happened tonight.”
A spokesman for the North Charleston Police Department, Harve Jacobs, told The Post and Courier that “NCPD officers are actively investigating this incident to the fullest extent of the law and will do everything in their power to locate and arrest the individuals involved in this heinous and reckless act.” He added, “We will leave no stone unturned in bringing these suspects to justice.”
According to Count on News-2, North Charleston Police Department reports that there have been 11 homicides in 2022 so far.
“The ages of the victims and the alleged killers have gotten very young and that’s very scary because the younger and younger these gentlemen get we have to start asking ourselves what type of culture are we embracing,” Shakem Ahket, the co-founder of the Community Resource Center, told Count on News-2.
This latest event comes as a recent report from the University of Michigan Institute for Firearm Injury Prevention (IFIP) found that in 2020, gun violence became the second leading cause of death among children and teens in the U.S.
The “change was driven largely by firearm homicides, which saw a 33.4% increase,” the report reads.
Dr. Jason Goldstick, a researcher with IFIP and co-author of the letter, told The Guardian, “We knew gun violence had increased, but I was surprised by the level of increase for just one year … I can’t remember ever seeing that before.”
Meadows texts reveal Marjorie Taylor Greene was concocting Jan. 6 lies even as coup was underway
This post was originally published on this site
We now know that Senate Minority Bleater Mitch McConnell was “exhilarated” after Jan. 6 because he thought the events of the day had finally discredited Donald Trump. But apparently he taught his Sith soldiers the dark arts of deflection and projection a little too well, because Cheesus’ most devoted disciples have since spirited him from his political tomb, replaced the nougat in his arteries with spicy McNugget sauces, refitted his brain with bionic parasites, and trundled his creaking corpus back onto the world stage like he somehow hadn’t incited a coup against the legitimate government of the United States.
Of course, resurrecting a two-time popular-vote loser makes zero sense unless your party isn’t a party so much as a cult of personality. Enter Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, who prefers an evil far more chaotic and redolent of curly fries than the quotidian, pro-plutocrat variety McConnell has traditionally offered.
Based on a tranche of text messages former Trump Chief of Staff Mark Meadows somehow let slip through his bony Skeletor fingers and into the hands of the House select committee investigating Jan. 6, we now know that some Republicans, including Greene, were concocting an egregious lie about the Capitol insurrection even as it was underway.
At 2:28 p.m., while the insurrection was in full swing, Greene texted Meadows to say: “Please tell the President to calm people,” adding that “This isn’t the way to solve anything.” She knew the rioters were people who would listen to Trump.
But then at 3:52 p.m., Greene texted Meadows again: “Mark we don’t think these attackers are our people. We think they are antifa. Dressed like Trump supporters.” Presto, the pro-Trump insurrection became a false flag operation!Greene wasn’t the only one. Just minutes earlier, Trump adviser Jason Miller had texted Meadows to suggest that Trump should tweet that “Bad apples, likely ANTIFA or other crazed leftists” had “infiltrated” the alleged “peaceful protest” by Trump supporters.
The “it was really antifa” hypothesis is absurd on its face, of course. Why would a left-wing group attack the Capitol to disrupt the certification of an election outcome they’d welcomed? And if you want to make Trump cultists look bad, you don’t need to launch a pretend insurrection. You could just put an M&M in a box with a hole big enough for an unclenched hand to go in but too small for a fist to come out, and then watch them walk around for three weeks with a box on their arm.
Of course, Greene wasn’t the only GOP guppy who quickly floated and/or hewed to the “antifa did it” conspiracy theory. Fox News’ biggest Trump apologists, including Laura Ingraham and Sean Hannity, began sowing their bogus “it was antifa” seeds before the feces on the walls of the Capitol had fully dried. And Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz, proving that even failed insurrections can’t be too young for him to exploit, claimed, without evidence, that “some of the people who breached the Capitol today were not Trump supporters. They were masquerading as Trump supporters and in fact, were members of the violent terrorist group antifa.”
Putting aside for the moment the absurdity of Joe Biden’s supposed antifa supporters trying to stop the transfer of power from a wannabe fascist to, well, Joe Biden, this raises another pressing question: How does one masquerade as a Trump supporter? Sure, anyone can wear a red hat and wave a goofy-ass flag, but can a mere civilian really perfect the languorous, thousand-mile Cheez-It stare they’ve all independently mastered?
But this is the right-wing spin machine in a nutshell. Their talking points don’t need to make sense. They simply need to be repeated ad nauseam, and before long, they’re taken as gospel. Though, in this case, it is remarkable that Greene and her pals were crafting dishonest talking points even as their workplace had essentially become a Mardi Gras parade with bear spray and baseball bats instead of beads.
But that’s what happens when people follow an idol who has absolutely no shame or allegiance to the truth. They tend to act in lockstep with Dear Leader’s dictates instead of following the simple evidence of their eyes and ears. And now MTG’s first fleeting stab at a bullshit rationalization for her own tribe’s inexcusable behavior has metastasized into a monster tumor that threatens the future viability of Western democracy itself.
Not a bad day’s work for a freshman representative who, at that point, had served just three days in Congress.
Of course, it’s also possible that the antifa lie was concocted before the insurrection—by some of the coup plotters themselves. According to court documents, Proud Boys Chairman Enrique Tarrio suggested his members involved in the coming unpleasantness might consider wearing black, which could be interpreted as a ploy to make it look like a false-flag antifa operation: “We will not be wearing our traditional Black and Yellow,” Tarrio wrote. “We will be incognito and we will be spread across downtown DC in smaller teams. And who knows … we might dress in all BLACK for the occasion.”
Either way, the majority of Republicans have now chosen the word of a clammy game show host over the future health of our 246-year-old republic. They should be drummed out of polite society for doing it, but sadly, this dreadful, anti-democratic beat goes on.
What will McConnell do now? I have a feeling he’s feeling less and less “exhilarated” as this country sinks deeper into the undemocratic morass he helped create.
It made comedian Sarah Silverman say, “THIS IS FUCKING BRILLIANT,” and prompted author Stephen King to shout “Pulitzer Prize!!!” (on Twitter, that is). What is it? The viral letter that launched four hilarious Trump-trolling books. Get them all, including the finale, Goodbye, Asshat: 101 Farewell Letters to Donald Trump, at this link. Or, if you prefer a test drive, you can download the epilogue to Goodbye, Asshat for the low, low price of FREE.
The army of Trumpists gathering at megachurch rallies build around myth of stolen election
This post was originally published on this site
We’ve usually thought of Trumpism as being an essentially mainstream-conservative movement with expanding extremist elements. But its post-Jan. 6 metastasis, bringing these elements together, suggests it has become its own kind of extremism: wildly conspiracist, militantly if not fanatically religious, and fundamentally violent.
A recent New York Times piece about how evangelical churches are building an army of Trump fans who believe the 2020 election was stolen through fraud gives us a clear and disturbing portrait of the emerging shape of Trumpism. It is framed by three key elements that are merging into a whole: Christian nationalists, the authoritarian QAnon conspiracist cult, and the Proud Boys.
Playing a central role in the coalescence of these three elements under Trumpism are evangelical megachurches and the rolling tent revival-style political rallies that QAnon-loving Trumpists have organized as national tours, particularly the ReAwaken America Tour, “a traveling roadshow that has featured far-right Republican politicians, anti-vaccine activists, election conspiracists and Trumpworld personalities,” not to mention megachurch pastors like Greg Locke, who has a social media following in the millions.
ReAwaken America, as the story notes, has attracted massive audiences numbering in the thousands to these megachurch venues, held in nine states this year. All but one of the tour’s stops have been hosted by megachurches, and the tour is sponsored by a charismatic Christian media company.
The performances wrap the narrative of election fraud in a megachurch atmosphere, complete with worship music and prayer, and have drawn criticism from some Christian clergy. When the tour came to a church in San Marcos, California, this month, a local Methodist minister denounced it as an “irreligious abomination” in an opinion essay.
A central figure at the rallies has been Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn, Trump’s onetime national security chief who became a prominent QAnon promoter after being fired for lying to the FBI (and later pardoned by Trump). Flynn played a leading role in the QAnon-led campaign to overturn the 2020 election.
Locke, similarly, was present at the Capitol on Jan. 6—speaking alongside Alex Jones of Infowars at a “Rally for Revival” the night before, at which he offered a prayer for the Proud Boys and its imprisoned leader, Enrique Tarrio, who had been jailed two days before on charges related to his arson of a Black Lives Matter banner three weeks before. Since then, Tarrio has been indicted on conspiracy charges for his role in the insurrection.
Both Flynn and Locke appeared at the ReAwaken America event earlier this month in Keizer, Oregon, a Salem suburb. The rally was part of a nationwide tour by far-right “alpha male” Clay Clark, featured leading QAnon figure Michael Flynn and other Trumpist media stars: Eric Trump, “My Pillow” executive Mike Lindell, notorious homophobe Sean Feucht, and a large cast of others.
It was a nonstop circus of right-wing conspiracism and Christian nationalism. At one point, Flynn introduced a video appearance from Archbishop Carlo Maria Viganò, the onetime Apostolic Nuncio to the U.S., who launched into a pro-Putin, anti-Ukraine rant. Viganò told the audience (as he has done elsewhere) that the Russian military is actually preventing Deep State aggression and combatting the “globalist cabal.” He also claimed that the Ukrainian neo-Nazi Azov Battalion were present at the Jan. 6, 2021 Capitol insurrection.
The event drew about 4,000 attendees, with people arriving from around the Pacific Northwest. Counterprotesters also turned out. Left Coast Right Watch reports that “this was absolutely a QAnon event”:
It featured former QAnon promoters like Ann Vandersteel, Gene Ho, John Chambers, and cranks like Lori Gregory, who appeared on a QAnon show to promote antivaxx conspiracy theories. There were, in total, 38 featured speakers, at least ten of which were there specifically to promote antivaxx and COVID paranoia. It was also a highly religious event—six people on the list had “Pastor” in front of their names with other evangelical figures speaking as well.
Julianne Jackson, founder of Black Joy Oregon, told the Salem Statesman-Journal that the rally made her feel unsafe in her own community—particularly after social media postings advertised a post-rally celebration of “Anglo American identity.”
“It’s very important to read between the lines and know that means whiteness,” Jackson said. “And that means danger for people like me and people that look like me.”
Besides being present in the crowd, far-right candidate Marc Thielman was publicly endorsed onstage by speaker Kevin Jenkins, and happily acknowledged the plug. Also among the crowd: Dan Tooze, the Proud Boys organizer who is running for a state House seat from Oregon City’s District 40. He took a selfie there with the Oregon Proud Boys vice president, Carl Todd.
Thielman and Tooze have a well-documented relationship of mutual avid support. Thielman, the former superintendent of schools in rural Alsea who stepped down after defying COVID-19 mask mandates, is scheduled to speak at an April 15 fundraiser for Tooze. He’ll be joined by two local Republican candidates, Clackamas County Commissioner Mark Shull and commission candidate Steve Frost.
The Proud Boys-evangelical connection has been building in the past year, notably when pastors organize political events at which the street-brawling neofascists can provide “security.” There were two such events last year in Oregon.
The Times notes that white evangelical churchgoers are extremely prone to buy into the narrative of a stolen election. It cites one poll, released in November by the Public Religion Research Institute, which reported 60% of white evangelicals persist in believing that Trump was only beaten with fraud, compared to 40% of white Catholics, 19% of Hispanic Catholics, and 18% of Black Protestants who believed the same.
Another Trumpist evangelical organization, F.E.C. United (“Founded on the Three Pillars of Society: Faith, Education, and Commerce”), organizes events at megachurches and similar venues around the country. Among them is The Rock, a nondenominational evangelical church in Castle Rock, Colorado, which in February hosted an F.E.C. United event featuring two major figures in the stolen election narrative: Shawn Smith, a founder of U.S. Election Integrity Plan; and Tina Peters, the clerk and recorder of Mesa County.
Smith made headlines at the event when he accused Colorado’s Democratic secretary of state, Jena Griswold, of election fraud. He went on: “If you’re involved in election fraud, you deserve to hang.”
Peters, who first grabbed attention in January 2021 by claiming she had evidence that Dominion’s voting systems were producing fraudulent results, became a celebrity at Trumpist events last summer, appearing onstage with figures like Flynn and My Pillow CEO Mike Lindell, another “Stop the Steal” conspiracy theorist. Peters was indicted last month on charges that she devised a scheme to copy voting machine hard drives and share the data with prominent 2020 election conspiracists.
The rallies often operate under different names, but they seem to share a rotating cast of stolen election celebrities, including Douglas Frank, a former Ohio math teacher whose second career as a (widely debunked) elections “expert” has taken off; Seth Keshel, a former Army captain and military intelligence analyst who worked alongside Flynn spreading disinformation in the weeks immediately after the election; Lindell, Flynn, and various other QAnon-connected figures.
At the churches, pastors often step up and endorse the conspiracy theories. “This will be your opportunity to find out real information about what really happened at the polls,” D.J. Rabe, a pastor of The House Ministry Center, a nondenominational church in Snohomish, Washington, told his congregation at an August worship service featuring a talk by Keshel. “Here’s what we’re going to find out: What everyone thinks happened didn’t really happen. The information is coming out.”
The rallies are readily adapted to strictly political settings as well, such as the “Save the Vote” event (a “Restoring Faith in Elections Rally”) planned in Payson, Arizona, on May 15. Featuring Keshel and Frank as the headliners, it’s primarily a campaign booster for Trumpist Republicans like Mark Finchem, a state legislator who was present at the Jan. 6 insurrection in Washington running for secretary of state; and Ron Watkins, the man closely associated with QAnon when he oversaw operations at the message board 8kun. Watkins is running for the GOP nomination for a congressional seat.
Finchem, for his part, filed a bill last September in the Arizona Legislature seeking to overturn the certification of the state’s 2020 presidential election count—even though the dubious “audit” he based the legislation on established again that Joe Biden had defeated Trump in the state.
Flynn turned up most recently in Ohio, where he campaigned for MAGA candidate Josh Mandel, who is seeking the nomination for a U.S. Senate seat with a Trumpist agenda—even though Trump himself endorsed his rival J.D. Vance. That did not daunt Flynn (“I think he’s been poorly advised,” he told reporters) or Mandel.
“Let me say it very clear: I believe this election was STOLEN, from Donald Trump,” Mandel told the audience, adding that even without the endorsement, he’s got the grass-roots. He’s “getting outspent heavily,” but is still “winning because we have this army of Christian warriors.”