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House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy strongly denied a Thursday report that, in the wake of the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol, he had said he would urge Donald Trump to resign. Then the audio came out of him saying he intended to do just that.

Whoopsies!

On the recording of a Jan. 10, 2021 House Republican leadership call, which Rachel Maddow played Thursday evening, Rep. Liz Cheney—then a member of House Republican leadership—can be heard referring to “when we were talking about the 25th Amendment resolution,” then asking McCarthy if Trump might resign. 

“I’ve had a few discussions. My gut tells me no,” McCarthy responded. “I am seriously thinking about having that conversation with him tonight. I haven’t talked to him in a couple days.”

RELATED STORY: Kevin McCarthy’s failure to act on Gosar and Greene’s white nationalist flirtation says it all

“From what I know of him, I mean you guys all know him too, do you think he’d ever back away? But what I think I’m going to do is, I’m going to call him,” McCarthy continued. “This is, this is what I think. We know [the impeachment resolution will] pass the House. I think there’s a good chance it’ll pass the Senate, even when he’s gone. Um, and I think there’s a lot of different ramifications for that.”

Listen to Jennifer Fernandez Ancona from Way to Win explain how Democrats must message to win on Daily Kos’ The Brief podcast with Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld

McCarthy went on to try to game out some of those ramifications, saying, “I haven’t had a discussion with the Dems, that if he did resign, would that happen,” and describing the possibility of a pardon from Pence as “one personal fear that I have.”

Returning to the conversation he planned to have with Trump, McCarthy said, “The only discussion I would have with him is I think it will pass, and it would be my recommendation that you should resign. I mean, that would be my take, but I don’t think he would take it. But I don’t know.”

This, again, is from the recording of the thing McCarthy called “totally false and wrong” reporting hours before the recording was released.

There’s the interesting question of how New York Times reporters Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin got that recording—and the many more recordings they say they have. It’s a question with one obvious answer, though a spokesperson for Cheney insists, “Representative Cheney did not record or leak the tape and does not know how the reporters got it.” I mean, if you say so, Liz.

McCarthy also reportedly said he wished Twitter would ban some Republican House members, like Rep. Lauren Boebert, another report McCarthy denies and is now presumably wondering if he was recorded saying. 

Within weeks, McCarthy was off at Mar-a-Lago sucking up to Trump, as he has continued to do since. Nothing can match the cravenness on display from Republicans then and now, but listening to this recording, you do have to wonder if swifter, more decisive action from Democrats might have driven the wedge deeper between Trump and congressional Republicans. Either way, McCarthy is an absolutely proven liar and any reporter quoting him from here on should include that caveat. Every single time.

This post was originally published on this site

The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

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Leading Off

● OH Redistricting: A three-judge federal court has hijacked Ohio’s legislative redistricting process and rewarded Republican obstructionism by announcing on Wednesday that if the state’s GOP-dominated redistricting commission fails to produce constitutional maps by May 28, it will implement maps that the state Supreme Court previously ruled were unconstitutional instead.

The Ohio Supreme Court has rejected four different sets of maps in a row for the state House and state Senate drawn by the commission, all for the same reason: They violated a voter-approved amendment to the state constitution barring partisan gerrymandering. That same amendment, however, forbid state courts from ordering the adoption of judicially crafted maps, leaving the Supreme Court with the power merely to order the commission—which consists of five Republicans and just two Democrats—to keep trying again.

But now Republicans have no incentive to try a fifth time, as the Supreme Court recently ordered, because if they fail to do so, the federal court will simply impose their third set of maps. In a 2-1 decision, two judges appointed by Donald Trump said they’d adopt those maps—despite the fact the Supreme Court found they violated the state constitution “beyond a reasonable doubt”—simply because Republican Secretary of State Frank LaRose, who is one of the five Republicans on the commission, told local election officials to prepare to use them before the justices had a chance to rule on their validity.

Federal courts cannot be barred by the Ohio constitution from imposing their own maps to remedy violations of the U.S. Constitution, and in fact they must do so in the event of an impasse to ensure that elections can be held using legal maps. (The GOP-drawn maps the state used for the last decade are now badly malapportioned in addition to being gerrymandered.) But in a dissent, Judge Algenon Marbley, who was named to the bench by Bill Clinton, castigated the majority for failing to “respect[] state policies to the maximum extent” by settling on plans that are “irredeemably flawed.”

Instead, said Marbley, the state should use a plan crafted by a pair of outside map-drawers hired by the commission, which expert witnesses who testified before the federal court said “satisfies all constitutional requirements” with minor changes. The commission claimed it abandoned that plan because it was incomplete—a reason the majority cited for spurning it—but Marbley noted that an expert for opponents of the GOP’s maps completed the necessary adjustments in a matter of hours.

Yet with the majority’s decision, “Republican Commissioners will benefit directly from a crisis they created,” wrote Marbley, “and which the Ohio Supreme Court has attributed squarely to them.” And because the GOP’s maps would only take effect for 2022, the same situation could unfold in future years. As Marbley explained, “The 2024 Commission, faced with the options of ceding political power or simply waiting out adverse court decisions, likely will be tempted to take the same course.”

Unmentioned by the dissent is that Republicans are trying to wait out the state Supreme Court in another way as well: Republican Chief Justice Maureen O’Connor, who sided with the court’s three Democrats over her three GOP colleagues to strike down the maps, cannot run again in November due to age limits. If Republicans who oppose the redistricting ruling win her open seat and hold onto the other two GOP-held seats up this year, they would gain a 4-3 majority willing to uphold future GOP gerrymanders.

Democrats and redistricting reformers are essentially out of options for 2022 at this point. While an appeal of the federal court’s ruling is possible, any such appeal would go directly to the U.S. Supreme Court, where challengers would expect a very unfriendly reception. The Ohio Supreme Court, meanwhile, has contemplated holding commissioners in contempt. To date it’s declined to do so, but even if it does, there’s no reason to think Republicans would produce constitutional maps since they’ll get exactly what they want as long as they hold out until May 28.

Redistricting

● FL Redistricting: Florida’s Republican-run state House approved Gov. Ron DeSantis’ new congressional map in a party-line vote on Thursday, following a similar vote in the state Senate a day earlier. The map, which would establish 20 districts Donald Trump would have carried and just eight that would have gone for Joe Biden, now goes to DeSantis for his signature, though litigation challenging the plan is a certainty.

Senate

● MO-Sen: Marine veteran Lucas Kunce has released a Public Policy Polling survey of the August Democratic primary that finds him leading philanthropist Trudy Busch Valentine by 25-18 with a substantial 56% of voters undecided. This is the first publicly available poll we’ve seen from anyone so far.

● NH-Sen, NH-Gov: The University of New Hampshire has tested some potential matchups between Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan and a few of her Republican challengers, and their new poll finds Hassan in a very tight race this fall:

47-46 vs. 2020 candidate and retired Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc

44-46 vs. state Senate President Chuck Morse

45-44 vs. former Londonderry town manager Kevin Smith

46-40 vs. Bitcoin millionaire Bruce Fenton

UNH also tested the Republican primary in September and found Bolduc with a large 33-4 lead over the nearest contender, but with 58% of voters undecided and Bolduc having significantly higher name recognition than his rivals thanks in part to his 2020 bid, that advantage could dwindle as his opponents become better known and more voters pick a candidate to support.

The GOP primary grew larger still on Thursday when author and investor Vikram Mansharamani kicked off his campaign. Vikram, who is also a lecturer at Harvard and the son of Indian immigrants, does not appear to have run for office before.

The UNH poll above also surveyed the election for governor, but the results are much less competitive than in the Senate contest. They have Republican Gov. Chris Sununu cruising to a 55-29 lead over state Sen. Tom Sherman, who is the only notable Democrat challenging the three-term incumbent so far.

● OH-Sen: Protect Our Values PAC, which is supporting venture capitalist J.D. Vance in the May 3 Republican primary, has publicized a Fabrizio, Lee & Associates poll that finds Vance pulling into a 25-18 lead over former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, with investment banker Mike Gibbons taking 13%, former state party chair Jane Timken earning 11%, and state Sen. Matt Dolan winning 9%. Those numbers are an improvement for Vance since their March survey, which had Vance, Mandel, and Gibbons in a three-way tie with 18% each followed by Timken at 11% and Dolan at 9%.

This is Fabrizio, Lee & Associates’ first poll since Donald Trump endorsed Vance on April 15, and it’s undoubtedly intended to support the idea that Trump’s support is helping put Vance ahead. However, it’s worth noting that nearly every other poll here in recent months has found Vance stuck further back in third or fourth place, though no other pollster has released a survey yet since Trump made his endorsement.

Meanwhile, Buckeyes for a Strong Ohio PAC, which is supporting Gibbons, has released a new ad calling Mandel a career politician and a “total fraud.” The spot disingenuously blasts Mandel for having supported Mitt Romney and former Gov. John Kasich without noting that Mandel did so when Romney at least was the 2012 GOP presidential nominee, not more recently when both he and Kasich have been among the few Republican Trump critics. The ad finishes by praising Gibbons as a businessman.

● OK-Sen-B: Friday was also the filing deadline for Oklahoma’s June 28 primaries, and the state has its candidate list here. A runoff would take place Aug. 23 for any contest where no one earned a majority of the vote.

Longtime Sen. Jim Inhofe announced in late February that he would resign, effective ​​when the current Congress ends, and 13 fellow Republicans are competing for the final two years of his term in this dark-red state. Inhofe is pulling for his former chief of staff, Luke Holland, and a new super PAC called OkieWay has spent $475,000 on ads starring the outgoing senator praising his would-be successor. The GOP side, though, includes several contenders who start out with more name recognition than Holland, who is a first-time candidate.

One familiar name is Rep. Markwayne Mullin, who represents a seat in the eastern part of Oklahoma. There’s also former state House Speaker T.W. Shannon, who ran in the 2014 special election for the Sooner State’s other Senate seat but lost the primary to then-Rep. James Lankford by a surprisingly wide 57-34 margin: Both Mullin and Shannon would be the first Native Americans to serve in the upper chamber since Colorado Republican Ben Nighthorse Campbell retired in 2005, while Shannon would also be Oklahoma’s first Black senator. Another prominent contender is former state Attorney General Scott Pruitt, who later served as Trump’s first head of the EPA and resigned in the face of numerous scandals.

Also in the running is state Sen. Nathan Dahm, who took a close fourth in the 2018 primary for the Tulsa-based 1st Congressional District; Dahm, who was waging a longshot bid against Lankford before Inhofe announced his departure, has benefited from about $155,000 in TV ads so far from Protect Freedom PAC, which is allied with Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. Rounding out the field is former Trump White House staffer Alex Gray, while the other seven contenders don’t appear to be serious.

Pruitt only entered the race just before filing closed last week so there are no fundraising reports available for him, but we have first quarter numbers from the rest of the GOP field:

• Holland: $620,000 raised, additional $200,000 self-funded, $773,000 cash-on-hand
• Mullin: $385,000 raised, additional $1 million self-funded, $1.96 million cash-on-hand
• Shannon: $245,000 raised, additional $150,000 self-funded, $392,000 cash-on-hand
• Dahm: $147,000 raised, $170,000 cash-on-hand
• Gray: $132,000 raised, additional $200,000 self-funded, $299,000 cash-on-hand

The only Democrat in the race is former Rep. Kendra Horn, who raised $343,000 and had $369,000 available.

Governors

● AZ-Gov: First quarter fundraising reports are available for candidates seeking to replace term-limited GOP Gov. Doug Ducey, with the primaries for both parties taking place in August:

• Former TV news anchor Kari Lake (R): $970,000 raised, $701,000 cash-on-hand
• Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson (R): $718,000 raised, additional $2 million self-loaned, $357,000 cash-on-hand
• Former Rep. Matt Salmon (R): $469,000 raised, $703,000 cash-on-hand
• Businessman Steve Gaynor (R): $35,000 raised, $4.1 million cash-on-hand (thanks to prior self-funding)
• Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (D): $748,000 raised, $1.6 million cash-on-hand
• Former homeland security official Marco López (D): $305,000 raised, additional $150,000 self-loaned, $450,000 cash-on-hand
• Former state Rep. Aaron Lieberman (D): $275,000 raised, $759,000 cash-on-hand

● FL-Gov: Sachs Media has conducted a Democratic primary poll on behalf of Florida Politics that shows Rep. Charlie Crist holding a 35-20 lead over state Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried, while state Sen. Annette Taddeo is far behind with 4%. This is Sachs’ first publicly available poll; the few other pollsters who have released surveys here in recent months have also found Crist ahead but with a large share of voters still undecided with four months to go until the August primary.

● GA-Gov: Former Sen. David Perdue is running a new GOP primary ad, which is backed by a modest $320,000 buy that his campaign says will grow to $500,000, that embraces the Big Lie and various other far-right themes. Perdue hits Gov. Brian Kemp for letting radicals “steal the election,” by which he really means Kemp not helping Trump to actually steal it, and because of this he blames Kemp for inflation and other problems under Biden. Perdue touts Trump’s endorsement and vows to eliminate the state income tax.

● IL-Gov: Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin’s latest GOP primary ad tries to portray state Rep. Darren Bailey as a phony conservative by highlighting how Bailey said last month that, “I might have voted for Biden,” while the rest of the spot hits Bailey for having supported property tax increases while he was on a local school board.

However, the ad omits how Bailey was speaking about voting in the 2008 Democratic primary, which he claimed he had done as a way to stop Hillary Clinton, not the more recent 2020 general election. The Chicago Tribune noted that Irvin himself had refused to say whether he voted for Trump shortly after joining the race and that he had voted in the 2016 and 2020 Democratic primaries, which Irvin justified by saying he was voting for conservative Democrats in local races.

● MD-Gov: The filing deadline for Maryland’s July 19 primary passed Friday, and the state has a list of contenders available here. (Both dates were twice postponed because of legal challenges to congressional and legislative maps.) The congressional and state legislative lists aren’t quite final, though, as the State Board of Elections says, “These candidates are listed in the district where they live now. After election officials make changes to County, State, and Congressional districts based on final redistricting plans, some candidates may be assigned to a different district.” The BoE adds that this will be finished “in late May or early June.”  

Republican Gov. Larry Hogan is termed out, and 10 Democrats and four Republicans are competing to succeed him in a state that Joe Biden carried 65-32. The only sitting elected official on either side is state Comptroller Peter Franchot, a moderate Democrat who has enjoyed a good relationship with Hogan. Team Blue’s field also includes two former members of the Obama cabinet: former Secretary of Education John King and former Secretary of Labor Tom Perez, who later went on to head up the Democratic National Committee.

The Democratic side also consists of two contenders who took second place in primaries for governor during the last decade: former Attorney General Doug Gansler, who lost in 2014, and former Prince George’s County Executive Rushern Baker, who unsuccessfully campaigned four years later and is now the only candidate taking part in Maryland’s public financing system. Also in the contest are former nonprofit leaders Jon Baron and Wes Moore as well as Ashwani Jain, a one-time Obama administration official who lost a 2018 primary for the Montgomery County Council; two little-known candidates round out the list.

The only recent poll we’ve seen was a March internal for Baker that showed him trailing Franchot 23-15, with Perez and Moore at 11% and 10%, respectively. New campaign finance reports aren’t due until mid-June (the last available numbers are from mid-January), so it will be a while before we get a fresh look at everyone’s financial strength.

On the GOP side, Hogan is backing Kelly Schulz, whom he previously appointed as state Commerce Secretary. Donald Trump’s endorsed candidate, meanwhile, is Del. Dan Cox, who played a role in the Jan. 6 insurrection at the Capitol by organizing a busload of people to attend the rally that preceded it. Also in the race are wealthy perennial candidate Robin Ficker, who decided to continue his bid despite getting disbarred, and Some Dude Joe Werner.

● NE-Gov: State Sen. Brett Lindstrom’s newest ad ahead of the May 10 Republican primary shows the candidate talking up his record of cutting taxes, and he says he’s “just getting started.”

● OK-Gov: Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt has three intra-party foes, with Oklahoma Department of Veterans Affairs Director Joel Kintsel looking like the most serious of the challengers. The Trump-endorsed incumbent’s biggest threat, though, likely comes from a pair of dark money groups that together have spent at least $3.3 million on negative ads. Stitt has fired back with his own messaging arguing he’s the victim of a smear campaign by “insiders and casino bosses,” and he’s also received $577,000 in help from the RGA. The Democratic side is a duel between Superintendent of Public Instruction Joy Hofmeister, who left the GOP last year, and former state Sen. Connie Johnson, who lost the 2018 primary for this office.

House

● AZ-06: EMILY’s List has endorsed state Sen. Kirsten Engel ahead of the August Democratic primary.

Engel raised $225,000 in the first quarter and finished March with $639,000 on hand compared to her other notable primary opponent, state Rep. Daniel Hernández, who raised $154,000 and had $447,000 in the bank. On the Republican side is Juan Ciscomani, a former senior advisor to Gov. Doug Ducey, who raised $443,000 and had $1.1 million in cash-on-hand.

● FL-04, FL-05: Republican state Senate President Pro Tempore Aaron Bean says he is “still exploring” a congressional run, which Florida Politics indicates would likely be in the new 4th District.

Republican legislators passed a new congressional map this week (see our FL Redistricting item above) that carves up Jacksonville to create two Republican-leaning districts by dismantling the existing 5th District, which is a predominantly Black and safely Democratic seat stretching to Tallahassee, but the redrawn 5th District corresponds more closely to GOP Rep. John Rutherford’s existing 4th District and contains most of his current turf. Florida Politics treats it as a given that Rutherford would run there instead, meaning the new 4th is effectively the closest successor to the old 5th even though it’s a very different constituency.

State Rep. Jason Fischer and Jacksonville City Councilman Rory Diamond have both previously said they were also considering running, and Florida Politics says they would also run in the 4th if they join the August GOP primary. One Republican who won’t be running for either seat, though, is term-limited Jacksonville Mayor Lenny Curry, who said he will finish out the rest of his term through 2023.

● IL-01: SEIU Local 1, which says it represents 30,000 members across Illinois, has endorsed Chicago Alderman Pat Dowell ahead of the crowded Democratic primary in June.

Dowell led the pack in fundraising, raising $382,000 in the first three months of 2022, and he held $297,000 on hand at the start of April. Close behind was businessman Jonathan Swain, who reported $356,000 in donations, an additional $19,000 in self-funding, and $322,000 in cash-on-hand. Former Chicago Cook Workforce Partnership CEO Karin Norington-Reaves raised $291,000 and had $237,000 leftover to spend, while construction company owner Jonathan Jackson raised $145,000 and had $130,000 in the bank.

Four other candidates reported raising less than $100,000: Real estate executive Nykea Pippion McGriff raised $85,000, self-funded an additional $3,000, and had $79,000 remaining; former Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority official Charise Williams took in $83,000 and had $44,000 left in the bank; state Sen. Jacqueline Collins raised $69,000, self-funded an additional $10,000, and had $62,000 left to spend; and Pastor Stephany Rose Spaulding, whom we hadn’t previously mentioned, raised a mere $50,000, self-funded $23,000, and had $27,000 on hand.

● IL-15: Rep. Mary Miller has launched an ad going after fellow GOP Rep. Rodney Davis for voting to create the Jan. 6 investigation committee. The spot calls Davis a “RINO” while noting that Miller has Trump’s endorsement.

Davis held a sizable edge over Miller in first quarter fundraising, though, raising $923,000 and finishing March with $1.9 million in cash-on-hand. By contrast, Miller brought in just $335,000 and had $511,000 left over at the start of April.

● IN-01: Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green has debuted a GOP primary ad that portrays former LaPorte Mayor Blair Milo as a “Never Trump liberal” who refused to back Trump in 2016 and criticized his immigration policies. Green touts her own support from Indiana Right to Life and her top rating from the NRA.

Milo led Green $208,000 to $155,000 in first quarter fundraising, but she had just $111,000 on hand compared to Green’s $151,000 at the end of the quarter. The primary is on May 3.

● IN-09: American Dream Federal Action, a cryptocurrency-aligned PAC on the Republican side, has reported spending at least $387,000 on GOP primary ads for former state Sen. Erin Houchin.

Houchin raised the most money of any Republican candidate from donors in the first quarter, having brought in $377,000 and holding $250,000 on hand. Army veteran Stu Barnes-Israel raised $264,000, self-funded an additional $101,000, and had $232,000 left to spend. Former Rep. Mike Sodrel took in just $38,000 from donors but self-funded an additional $429,000, almost all of which he spent to end up with only $58,000 on hand. Lastly, businessman Jim Baker, whom we hadn’t previously mentioned, raised $64,000 and had $40,000 remaining on hand.

● MD-01: Rep. Andy Harris, who is one of the Republican party’s ​​leading election deniers, is defending a seat along the Eastern Shore that would have backed Donald Trump 56-42, which is considerably more conservative than the seat Democrats drew up last year for a map that was ultimately struck down in state court.

Harris still faces a well-funded Democratic challenger in the form of former Del. Heather Mizeur, who took third place in the 2014 primary for governor and would be the first lesbian to represent the state in Congress. Harris outraised Mizeur $468,000 to $372,000 during the first quarter of 2022, and he finished March with a $1.88 million to $1.12 million cash-on-hand edge. Foreign policy strategist Dave Harden is also competing in the Democratic primary, but he’s raised little so far.

● MD-04: Democratic Rep. Anthony Brown is leaving this safely blue seat, which is based around Prince George’s County in the D.C. suburbs, to run for attorney general, and three notable candidates from the county are competing to succeed him.

One well-established contender is Brown’s predecessor, former Rep. Donna Edwards, a progressive who left the House in 2016 to unsuccessfully run for the Senate; Edwards later waged a 2018 comeback campaign for county executive, but she lost that primary by a wide 62-24 margin to Angela Alsobrooks. Another familiar name is former county State’s Attorney Glenn Ivey, whom Brown beat 42-34 in the 2016 primary to replace Edwards. Another person to watch is former Del. Angela Angel, who lost her 2018 primary for a state Senate seat 55-37.

Edwards, who entered the race this year and has EMILY’s List’s support, raised $612,000 during her opening quarter and self-funded another $13,000, and she finished March with $460,000 on hand. Ivey, meanwhile, took in $294,000 from donors and provided another $150,000, which left him with a larger $584,000 war chest. Angel, finally, raised $54,000, self-funded $45,000 more, and was left with $95,000 on hand.

● MD-06: Democratic Rep. David Trone faces a potentially tough general election now that redistricting has cut Joe Biden’s margin of victory from 61-38 to 54-44 (Hillary Clinton would have carried this version of the 6th just 47-46), though the extremely wealthy incumbent has proven in the past that he’s more than willing to make generous use of his own wealth. Indeed, Trone self-funded $2 million during the first quarter, which was far more than the $41,000 he took in from donors, and ended March with just over $2 million on hand.

The most prominent Republican in the contest for this redrawn constituency, which includes western Maryland and the D.C. exurbs, is Del. Neil Parrott, whom Trone turned back 59-39 last cycle. Parrott raised just $25,000 during the first three months of 2022 and had $262,000 in the bank, though contributors may take more of an interest in this race now that the 6th has become more competitive. State House Minority Leader Jason Buckel briefly considered running here as well before filing closed, but he decided to seek re-election instead.

● NC-01: The state AFL-CIO has endorsed state Sen. Don Davis in the May 17 Democratic primary for this open seat.

● NC-04: Protect Our Future PAC, the group funded by crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, is spending at least $771,000 to boost state Sen. Valerie Foushee in next month’s Democratic primary for this safely blue seat.

● NH-02: Brewery owner Jeff Cozzens announced Thursday that he was exiting the August Republican primary to take on Democratic incumbent Annie Kuster.  

● OK-02: Republicans have a huge 14-person lineup to succeed Senate candidate Markwayne Mullin in an eastern Oklahoma seat that Trump would have carried 76-22, and there’s no obvious frontrunner at this point. One contender, though, ended March with a big financial lead over their many foes:

• Economy Pharmacy CEO Chris Schiller: $257,000 raised, additional $250,000 self-funded, $501,000 cash-on-hand
• State Sen. Marty Quinn: $106,000 raised, additional $27,000 self-funded, $129,000 cash-on-hand
• State Rep. Dustin Roberts: $83,000 raised, additional $25,000 self-funded, $105,000 cash-on-hand
• Muskogee Chief of Police Johnny Teehee: $42,000 raised, additional $210,000 self-funded, $250,000 cash-on-hand
• State party chair John Bennett: $27,000 raised, $23,000 cash-on-hand
• State Rep. Avery Frix: $15,000 raised, additional $200,000 self-funded, $215,000 cash-on-hand

The race includes several other politicians who joined the race after the new fundraising quarter began:

• businessman Guy Barker
• former state Sen. Josh Brecheen
• former state Rep. David Derby
• former defense contractor Pamela Gordon
• Cherokee Nation Tribal Councilor Wes Nofire

The remaining three Republicans don’t appear to be serious contenders, though it’s always possible one of them could advance to a runoff in this outsized field.

● OR-06: Protect Our Future PAC has dropped an additional $1.9 million to aid economic development adviser Carrick Flynn in the May 17 Democratic primary for this newly created seat, which brings its total investment here to a staggering $7 million.

● PA-08: 2020 Republican nominee Jim Bognet has launched the first ad for his rematch against Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright, and he quickly makes it clear what kind of campaign he’ll be running when he opens, “In 2020, President Trump endorsed me for Congress. But that election was stolen from us.”

● RI-02: Former state Rep. David Segal declared Wednesday that he was joining the September Democratic primary for this open seat, an announcement that came almost two months after he began raising money for a potential campaign to succeed retiring Rep. Jim Langevin.

Segal, as we’ve written before, was active in Providence progressive politics in 2002 when he was elected to the City Council as a member of the Green Party, and he briefly served as the chamber’s minority leader. After joining the Democrats and winning a seat in the state House, Segal ran for the 1st District in 2010, which was the last time Rhode Island had an open-seat race for Congress. He campaigned to the left of his many primary foes and ended up in third place with 20%; the winner, with 37%, was Providence Mayor David Cicilline, who still holds the district today. Segal didn’t seek elected office in the ensuing decade, though he did found the national liberal organization Demand Progress.

● SC-01: Big Lie enthusiast Katie Arrington has earned an endorsement from 2nd District Rep. Joe Wilson, who infamously shouted, “You lie!” at Barack Obama during a 2009 presidential address to Congress, for her campaign to beat incumbent Nancy Mace in the June Republican primary.  

● VA-02: Candidate filing closed on April 7 for Virginia’s June 21 primaries, and we’ll be taking a look at the state of play in each competitive congressional race now that first quarter fundraising numbers are in; you can find a list of contenders here.

Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria is defending a Virginia Beach-based seat where, following redistricting, Joe Biden’s margin of victory was halved from 51-47 to 50-48. National Republicans, including the deep-pocketed Congressional Leadership Fund, have consolidated behind state Sen. Jen Kiggans, who won her seat in a close 2019 general election campaign. Luria outraised Kiggans $1.2 million to $435,000 during the first three months of 2022 and ended March with a huge $3.16 million to $593,000 cash-on-hand.

Before she can go up against Luria, Kiggans needs to get past high school football coach Jarome Bell, a Big Lie fanatic who has the backing of 5th District Rep. Bob Good. Bell, who earned last place in the 2020 three-way primary with 23%, had a mere $9,000, though, so he may not be much of an obstacle for Kiggans, who has been happy to entertain election conspiracies herself.

● VA-07: While some Northern Virginia Democrats initially expressed interest in waging a primary bid against Rep. ​​Abigail Spanberger after the new congressional map replaced much of her suburban Richmond base with turf in populous Prince William County, Spanberger will face no intra-party opposition. Those dramatic changes boosted Biden’s margin from just 50-49 to 52-46, but six Republicans are hoping to take her on.

Both state Sen. Bryce Reeves and Green Beret veteran Derrick Anderson were running against Spanberger before the remap, and they’ve continued their campaigns here: Reeves outraised Anderson $269,000 to $232,000 during the most recent fundraising quarter, and he finished March with a small $390,000 to $371,000 cash-on-hand lead.

Prince William County Supervisor Yesli Vega, meanwhile, entered the race shortly after redistricting was completed, and she raised $357,000 in her first three months and had $294,000 to spend. Another new arrival, Stafford County Board of Supervisors Chair Crystal Vanuch, took in $82,000 but self-funded $402,000, which left her with $468,000 to spend. Spotsylvania County Supervisor David Ross, likewise, raised $42,000 and provided $101,000 more, which left him with a $121,000 war chest. The final Republican, 2021 state House nominee Gina Ciarcia, had less than $15,000 to spend. Spanberger herself raised $1.13 million to defend herself, and she finished March with $3.89 million in the bank.

● ECU: The progressive group End Citizens United has endorsed six Democratic House contenders:

• CA-42: Long Beach Mayor Robert Garcia
• IL-03: State Rep. Delia Ramirez
• IL-13: Former Biden administration official Nikki Budzinski
• MD-01: Former Del. ​​Heather Mizeur
• OH-01: Cincinnati City Councilman Greg Landsman
• TX-28: Attorney Jessica Cisneros

Attorneys General

● ID-AG: While the Club for Growth doesn’t appear to have endorsed its old ally, former Rep. Raúl Labrador, in the May 17 Republican primary for attorney general, the group is spending nearly $300,000 to weaken five-term incumbent Lawrence Wasden. The commercial attacks Wasden for refusing to join 13 other GOP attorneys general in suing to overturn the Biden administration’s COVID relief bill, with the narrator arguing he “allowed Washington to shove their woke agenda down our throats.” The ad also goes after him for refusing to join the 2020 lawsuit aimed at overturning Biden’s win, saying he “looked the other way when election integrity hung in the balance.”

● MD-AG: The Democratic primary to succeed retiring Democratic incumbent Brian Frosh is a duel between two well-connected candidates: Rep. Anthony Brown, who was the party’s 2014 nominee for governor, and former Baltimore Judge Katie Curran O’Malley, who is the wife of former Gov. Martin O’Malley. The winner will be the heavy favorite in November for an office that the GOP last won in 1918.

● MI-AG, MI-SoS: Michigan Republicans will hold a convention Saturday to choose their candidates to take on Attorney General Dana Nessel and Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, races that Donald Trump has intervened in as he seeks to install adherents of the Big Lie into key offices like these nationwide. However, the weekend’s results may not bring about a definitive resolution because the party’s endorsement can be overturned in August with an affirmative vote of three-fourths of delegates, and at least one candidate hasn’t ruled out pursuing this option if he loses.

MLive.com explains this strange state of affairs came about because, as GOP consultant John Sellek puts it, these springtime gatherings are “completely made up by the parties.” Indeed, state law requires that the parties, rather than primary voters, pick their nominees for these offices (as well as for lieutenant governor) at conventions that take place in the “fall” (which has been interpreted, for some reason, to include August).

Democrats, though, decided several years ago that they wanted to choose their candidates far earlier in order to give them a head start for the general election. That’s why they came up with the idea of the April endorsement convention, with the later event serving only to make the results official. (Michigan voters will select nominees in all other races in the state’s Aug. 2 primary.)

Republicans decided to try this approach out themselves for the first time this cycle, but Trump’s interventions have, unsurprisingly, complicated things. While many GOP leaders want their nominee for attorney general to be former state House Speaker Tom Leonard, who lost to Nessel by a close 49-46 margin in 2018, Trump has instead backed Matthew DePerno, an attorney who’s made a name for himself advancing the conspiracy theories about the 2020 elections and recently called for the arrest of Nessel, Benson, and Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.

The GOP field also includes state Rep. Ryan Berman, who has tried to position himself as an alternative to Leonard and DePerno but has been willing to call out DePerno’s lies. In the race for secretary of state, Trump is similarly pulling for Kristina Karamo, who has called the Jan. 6 insurrectionists “​​totally antifa posing as Trump supporters,” to beat state Rep. Beau LaFave and Chesterfield Township Clerk Cindy Berry.

Sellek predicted that DePerno, who earlier this month called for his supporters to “storm” the county-level meetings where party activists pick delegates for the endorsement convention, would respond to a defeat on Saturday by trying to get the results overturned in August. Berman, though, was the only one who publicly addressed the idea, telling MLive, “It depends on what happens this weekend. We’ll see how it plays out.” Still, it would take quite a lot to convince 75% of the August delegates to adopt what Sellek called a “smash-glass-in-case-of-emergency” option.

And the glass may remain intact no matter what these insurgents might want. GOP co-chair Meshawn Maddock, who backs Trump’s picks, predicted, “The party as a whole is going to coalesce around this team, starting Saturday afternoon,” adding, “I will work my tail off for whatever candidates come out of this convention.”

Former state party executive director Jason Roe, though, struck a very different tone when describing the stakes of the endorsement convention. “We’re going to find out if we’re going to be held hostage to second-tier candidates who can’t win general elections in pursuit of genuflecting to the dear leader,” he said, “or if we’re going to focus on winning elections and making sure that conservatives control state government and make the policies that we all have to live under.”

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This week on The Downballot, cohosts David Nir and David Beard talked about the bizarre situation unfolding with redistricting in Florida; looked into how Trump has inserted himself into even more GOP Senate primaries in Ohio and Pennsylvania; called out a democratic Senate candidate for running an offensive xenophobic ad; and previewed upcoming elections in France and Australia. Lastly, the duo took a look at the House playing field and highlighted 10 Republican-held districts where Democrats have a chance to go on offense and actually pick up seats this year.

You can listen below, or subscribe to The Downballot wherever you listen to podcasts. You can also find a transcript for this week right here. New episodes come out every Thursday!

Maps in Florida will be drawn by Governor Ron DeSantis after after a protracted showdown between the governor and Florida’s Republican lawmakers, who decided to abdicate their responsibility to draw legislative maps. Instead, they let DeSantis draw the map that he wants and simply passed it on a party line vote.

“The map itself is a total travesty,” Nir lamented, noting that it is an extreme GOP gerrymander that would create 20 seats carried by Donald Trump and just eight for Joe Biden, compared to the 15-12 advantage for Trump under the current map. “And of course, Florida is a perennial swing state,” he added. “It certainly leans somewhat to the right, but Trump only won it by about three or four points in 2020. So this map gives the GOP a huge advantage.”

Moreover, Nir pointed out that the way the map goes about doing this is what makes it even more troubling: Over a decade ago, Florida voters approved amendments to the state constitution to reform redistricting and crack down on gerrymandering. These are generally known as the Fair Districts Amendments, and they (ostensibly) block lawmakers from drawing maps that unduly favor one party over the other. They also contain a provision that bars legislators from drawing maps that diminish minority voting power.

The most salient future of DeSantis’s map, according to Nir, is the demolition of the 5th Congressional District, a seat in north Florida that runs from Jacksonville to Tallahassee and is Democratic-leaning and contains a plurality of Black voters. Black voters are the largest proportion of residents of the district, which is currently represented by a Black Democrat, Al Lawson.

As Nir put it, DeSantis’s map would completely change the district and turn it from a seat that Biden won by a 63-36 margin into a seat Trump would’ve won by a 57-41 margin:

That’s a swing of 43 points. That’s just absolutely massive. Of course, it becomes a white district. Very, very likely to elect a white Republican. And even if the map passes the House as it’s expected to, and of course DeSantis signs it, those Fair Districts Amendments still lurk, and Democrats are absolutely certain to file a lawsuit.

While the Florida Supreme Court has gotten much more conservative over the years, it has also cracked down on GOP gerrymandering using these amendments in the previous decade, though the justices may be more inclined to be favorable toward DeSantis and the GOP particularly because DeSantis himself has appointed some of them, Nir noted. However, legal experts say that the language in the state constitution protecting minority voting rights is actually quite strong and quite clear. Thus, he added:

There is a realistic chance that the [state] Supreme Court throws out at least this part of the map. Of course, this huge GOP impasse that lasted for months and months benefits Republicans in another way, which is we have seen courts refuse to strike down or adjust unconstitutional or flawed maps because it’s supposedly too close to the election to do so. So even if the state Supreme Court does have a problem with this map, there is a real chance that it’s still winds up getting used in November. So definitely keep an eye on the litigation over this map.

Next up, the pair discussed Senate primaries in Alabama and Georgia that Trump has decided to involve himself in through endorsements of GOP candidates. Late last week, Trump endorsed venture capitalist JD Vance, just a few weeks before the May 3 Republican primary in Ohio.

As Beard noted with frustration that many Republicans there, particularly the other candidates, have been fighting hard for Trump’s endorsement—former state treasurer Josh Mandel most notably:

He even made sort of a Hail Mary ahead of the endorsement when it became clear that it was happening, releasing a poll claiming that he would win for sure with Trump’s endorsement. He would easily win this primary, but Vance very well could lose even if he got Trump’s endorsement. So trying to play on Trump’s the idea that he doesn’t want to be a loser by instead saying, ‘Well, Vance is going to lose even if you endorse him, so you better endorse me because I’m going to be the winner.’

All of this was unfolding in Ohio a week after Trump endorsed Dr. Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Republican Senate race, to the consternation of many Republicans in the state who didn’t want to see Oz be endorsed because he holds a number of views opposing conservative positions. Beard elaborated:

He’s not seen as the true conservative. And so there’s sort of this tension between Trump and his personal favorites and the Republican Party’s desire for sort of true conservative candidates. And as Politico wrote, ‘The former president’s endorsements have often added more chaos to these already contentious fights.’ So it’s really interesting to see this sort of division between Trump, who has these really idiosyncratic reasons for endorsing candidates [and other Republicans].

The drama is only continuing to ramp up as Trump goes around picking these candidates, upsetting the other Republicans involved in these races—with little guarantee that his endorsed candidates will win. Beard thinks it will be interesting to see how Trump reacts if they fail to come out on top.

The discussion then moved to Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio, candidate for the state’s open Senate seat, who recently launched a new ad declaring, “We’ve got to take on China and be Americans first.” A prior ad featured an even more amped-up version of this offensive anti-China rhetoric, and Asian Americans were furious. Ryan’s colleague, New York Rep. Grace Meng, demanded that he take down the ad. Asian American advocacy groups demanded likewise. Even Sen. Sherrod Brown—who previously endorsed Ryan, Nir noted—declined to defend the ad and said that Ryan should have introduced himself to voters with a biographical spot instead.

Nir pointed out with dismay that many seem to have missed the root of the problem entirely:

The reaction in many quarters has been dismaying. It’s been the kind of thing you see all too often when members of a minority group call out racism or bigotry. A lot of folks simply refuse to take it seriously. I saw one remark online saying, ‘Well, the ad only mentions China, not Chinese people. So what’s the problem?’ That’s not how incitement works. Hate crimes against Asian Americans didn’t spike because Donald Trump exhorted goon squads to terrorize individual people, they spiked because people like Trump sought to demonize China as a way to deflect blame for their atrocious handling of the coronavirus pandemic.

And that is what led to a spike in hatred that the worst Americans turned into violent action. Rhetoric really matters. Now, the professional class was more polite, essentially deflecting these concerns and saying, ‘This is an effective message in the Rust Belt. This is what it takes for a Democrat to win.’ But I want to point to a Washington Post piece by Dave Weigel exploring the ad and pointed out that former governor Ted Strickland, he’s a Democrat, and when he ran for this same Senate seat in 2016, he relied on similar messages.

Here’s the problem. Even if you are going to this as a matter of bare-knuckle politics and tell Asian Americans that their concerns don’t matter, Strickland got crushed. He lost by 21 points, and not only did he get his ass handed to him—he ran 13 points behind the top of the ticket.

Beard stated that the entire premise of Ryan’s ad relied on a falsehood and ultimately simply villainized one country and its people:

The particularly revealing aspect is that China isn’t even the place where most manufacturing jobs are going overseas at this point. Jobs are going overseas to a ton of different countries in a ton of different sectors for different reasons. So the idea that the problem with jobs overseas is China in particular versus American policy or trade policy is just not true. So to point out one country over the broader situation is clearly wanting to find a villain and blame the villain as opposed to actually solving policy.

“Right. Why not go after greedy American corporations who are undermining American workers at home? He’s been in congress for 20 years. So why hasn’t he managed to fight back, quote-unquote, against China in that whole time? What’s going to be different about electing him to the Senate versus electing into the house?” Nir said. “If you really want to help Americans who’ve been harmed by the decline in manufacturing and the outsourcing of jobs, telling them that you’re magically going to roll back the clock to a better time is just not the way to do it.”

Nir and Beard wrapped up updates with another international election roundup. In France, voting for the presidential runoff takes place this Sunday, April 24, just two weeks after the first round. President Emmanuel Macron’s lead over his challenger, Maureen Le Pen, has expanded a bit in polling since the pair talked about it last week and is now around 10% as things seem to have settled a bit.

Beard hopes that means Macron will coast to a comfortable win on Sunday, despite some major jabs being thrown by both candidates:

That’s obviously, I think, the broadly preferred thing. Le Pen is a far-right candidate who’s very concerning, has a been a big fan of Russia in the past. That was the issue that came up a lot in the debate that happened just on Wednesday where Macron went after Le Pen for her party’s loan from a Russian bank and really attacked her on her past contacts with Russia and support for Russia before the invasion of Ukraine.

At the same time, Le Pen went after Macron for his proposed pension reforms that would raise the retirement age to 65 in France, which has been very unpopular, and which Macron has sort of halfway walked back to talk about compromises and things like that as he realized this was really a problem for his race.

Next, in Australia, which holds elections every three years for their House, the date for the upcoming general election was set for May 21. Incumbent prime minister Scott Morrison is going to attempt to win a fourth consecutive election for the Liberal National Coalition while Anthony Albanese will try to win back power for the Labor Party after a decade in opposition. Beard clarified that the Liberal National Coalition is the center-right coalition: “Don’t get confused with liberal. It’s not what liberal means here in America. And of course the Labor Party is the major center-left party in Australia.”

The election is for all 150 seats in the lower chamber and then 40 of the 76 seats in the Australian Senate. “The Labor Party remains in the lead in polling, but it has narrowed in the past few weeks. So it’s certainly something to watch as the campaign heats up as we go through the end of April and into May to see if the Labor Party can maintain its lead, or if it really becomes a toss up,” Beard said.

Lastly, the cohosts delved into Democratic opportunities to go on offense in the House this year. Nir thinks that this November could produce a number of surprises, especially due to redistricting and gerrymandering, and not to write this cycle off completely for Democrats just yet: “Democrats control the White House. They have every reason to expect a difficult time at the ballot box in November. But for a whole host of reasons, the best defense may in fact be a good offense. There are a lot of Republican seats this year that actually present interestingly ripe targets for Democrats to potentially flip.”

Daily Kos has assembled a slate of 10 races to raise funds for the eventual Democratic winner of the primary. While these aren’t necessarily the top 10 pickup targets for Democrats, Nir feels optimistic about these seats: “They aren’t the only possible pick-up targets for Democrats, but there are races that we feel, for a variety of reasons, represent a really good use of small dollar donor efforts that these are races where you’ll get a good bang for the buck. And if you want to keep the gavel out of Kevin McCarthy’s hands, this is the place to start.”

These 10 targeted U.S. House races are:

• AZ-01: David Schweikert (eastern Phoenix and suburbs)

• CA-22: David Valadao (southern Central Valley)

• CA-27: Mike Garcia (northern Los Angeles suburbs)

• CA-45: Michelle Steel (western Orange County)

• CO-08: OPEN (northern Denver suburbs)

• NC-13: OPEN (southern Raleigh suburbs)

• NE-02: Don Bacon (Omaha area)

• NY-01: OPEN (eastern Long Island)

• MI-03: Peter Meijer (Grand Rapids area)

• NM-02: Yvette Herrell (southern New Mexico)

The Downballot comes out every Thursday everywhere you listen to podcasts. As a reminder, you can reach our hosts by email at [email protected]. Please send in any questions you may have for next week’s mailbag. You can also reach out via Twitter: @DKElections.

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Jared Kushner just raked in $2 billion from Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund, even after the fund’s panel of top advisers called Kushner’s new hedge fund, Affinity Partners, “unsatisfactory in all aspects.” How did the boy wonder do it? By supporting Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and turning a blind eye to the murder and dismemberment of Jamal Khashoggi, of course.

Kushner’s fealty to Mohammed bin Salman finally paid off. The slender sellout has been defending MBS for years and is now cashing in. As the crown prince (the Saudi one, not the Jersey one) carried out a purge of the royal family, Jared helpfully revealed classified U.S. intelligence to MBS about which royals supported his purge and which ones did not. Torture and death followed.

And so now, the boy who said not to worry about COVID-19 and thinks he brought peace to the Middle East — all while getting Qatar to bail out his disastrous 666 Fifth Avenue building — has managed to get $2 billion because of his proximity to a murderous Saudi prince and a deranged former U.S. president.

That’s a helluva way to make a living.

Speaking of making a living, you can join me at a much more affordable rate over on Patreon, where you can join me behind the scenes and get other goodies! (Your support really helps:-)

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Michael Weiss / Twitter:

🧵New from @holger_r and me: “Karl,” our Estonian defense specialist, offers his insights into Russia’s eastern offensive. 

“The offensive started at the weekend. That’s when the intensity of the battles grew. We know because Russia’s losses were higher than on the days before.” 

“This phase will be different than when the war started on Feb 24. Russia will not attack across the whole frontline, simultaneously. The intensity of fighting is roughly twice as much as what came before.” 

“The Russians are focused on two axes: 1) Izyum, 2) Severodonetsk and surrounding towns. They’ve had some success in Kreminna, but that’s a tactical decision by Ukraine. 130 Russians were hospitalized from there in the last day. This indicates dozens were killed. That’s a lot.” 

We continue with our exploration of Twitter for stories you don’t see elsewhere. As Hunter noted last night, the think tanks are more skeptical of Russian capability.

Dmitri / Twitter:

I want to tell you a story about one Bashkir man whose name was Rif (pron. R-e-e-f).

Bashkirs are native people of Bashkortostan region in Russia, which lies on the border between Europe and Asia. Get a glimpse of what the norm is for a large proportion of the Russian citizens. 

When I last saw him in 2010, Rif was around 55. All his life he lived in a village Uzungulovo, about 30km from Beloretsk town in Ural mountains of Russia. This region is known for vast forests, fertile plains, wide rivers, tall mountains, and lakes full of fish.

Adam Davidson / Twitter:

TIL that people still don’t understand why so many journalists are mad at Dean Baquet and the NYT.
Yes! There has been much amazing reporting done.

Yes! You can point to many articles about Trump and an anti-democratic GOP.
But,

The NYT–uniquely–has the ability to concentrate the world’s attention and drive coverage on TV, radio, and every other paper.
It has, largely, used that power to OVER emphasize minor Democratic issues and to UNDER emphasize major GOP issues.

Bloomberg:

Under Pressure, Cracks Appear in Le Pen’s New Moderate Image

Most of the debate appeared to be capping her so-called detoxification effort: where Macron at times appeared arrogant during the near three-hour televised sparring match, Le Pen was calm and composed.

And then the subject of Islam, identity and security came up. She cited “barbary” and “savagery” — code words used by the far-right to refer to people of color — and linked migrants to violence and crime. She said she’d ban the Muslim veil in all public spaces. If that happened, it would become the only country in the world to do so.

Le Pen needed to land a major punch to close the near 12 percentage point gap with Macron. She might have hoped these dog whistles would win over people who voted for Zemmour, who didn’t make it to the second round. But a poll published by Opinionway on Thursday was unchanged from the previous survey. With just two days of campaigning left, it’s hard to see how she can jump ahead.

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The “major” Russian offensive in eastern Ukraine continues, producing minor Russian territorial gains as a “senior U.S. defense official” warns that Russia is still continuing to add to its forces in the region. 42 towns were captured by Russia on Thursday, according to Ukrainian officials.

Despite that, Ukraine’s government sounds the most optimistic of the two. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed “cautious optimism” that allied countries now “understand our needs better,” rushing to provide Ukraine with heavy weapons that Zelenskyy had been asking NATO countries to send for weeks now. Russian troops continue to be tied up north of Izyum in attempts to keep supply lines open even as Ukraine applies heavy pressure; even Russia taking new ground may be as much a sign of Ukraine tweaking its defensive tactics.

The loss of Izyum continues to be a heavy blow, allowing Russia to stage much closer to other key cities than it otherwise could.

In more curious news, two major fires inside Russia raise eyebrows for their potential long-term significance. A key Russian research center for missile development appears to be a total loss after a fire broke out, reportedly killing at least two and injuring dozens. The Dmitrievsky Chemical Plant, a major producer of chemical solvents, was destroyed by a different fire. Both are a long, long way from the Russian border, but the destruction of two major facilities in one day is, at the least, unusual. It’s almost certainly a coincidence … unless something similar happens tomorrow.

The most substantial question, however, remains the same. Is there a more robust Russian attack coming, or is this the full extent of Russian capabilities? Military experts wildly disagree on that one, with the Pentagon’s warnings growing increasingly dire while outside think tanks remain skeptical after weeks of watching what Russia’s commanders have (and haven’t) been able to pull off.

Some of our latest coverage:

• Russia inches forward, but larger Donbas campaign remains suspect
• The heavy weapons spigot has finally opened for Ukraine
• Pentagon thinks big Russian offensive is still to come, because so far this is lame

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Former Fox News host Bill O’Reilly is going viral and, unsurprisingly, it’s not for a good reason. A video of O’Reilly exploded online Tuesday. In the video, the 72-year-old right-wing, disgraced host can be seen belittling a JetBlue employee at John F. Kennedy International Airport, all because his flight was delayed.

“What you’re gonna do … it’s three hours late,” O’Reilly is heard saying in the video. When the employee responds, O’Reilly can be heard interrupting the employee and pointing at him as he continues: “No, no, no. You’re going to find out.”

It only gets worse. O’Reilly then resorts to name-calling, including calling the employee “a (expletive) scumbag.” When the employee attempted to respond, O’Reilly served up a hypocrisy sandwich, saying, “Don’t talk to me like that.”

Of course, despite clearly threatening the employee, O’Reilly denied threatening him and then immediately took a shot at his livelihood. “You’re going to lose your job,” O’Reilly told the employee, before walking away.

The video of the incident, which occurred on Sunday, April 3, was exclusively obtained by the Daily Mail. According to the outlet, O’Reilly planned to be on his way to the Turks and Caicos Islands in the Caribbean when his flight was delayed by over three hours.

A fellow passenger recorded the incident, noting that he was shocked by O’Reilly’s remarks and attitude. “I couldn’t believe how arrogant he was,” the passenger told Daily Mail.

O’Reilly took to Twitter to defend himself and accuse the airline employee of being the arrogant one during the incident.

Listen Jennifer Fernandez Ancona from Way to Win explain what how Democrats must message to win on Daily Kos’ The Brief podcast with Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld

“The character assassins on social media completely lying about my interaction with a JetBlue guy who misled passengers during a five-hour delay,” he posted on Twitter. “I expected this.”

Airline flight changes have been common since the start of the pandemic. Multiple airlines including JetBlue announced that they would be altering flight schedules due to staffing shortages that are contributing to delayed flights and cancellations.

“Despite hiring more than 3,000 new crewmembers already this year, like many businesses, we remain staffing constrained and these disruptions exacerbate an already challenging staffing situation,” JetBlue said in a statement earlier this year.

Realistically, O’Reilly should have planned for delays which are, of course, frustrating. But harassing an employee is never the right approach.

This isn’t the first time that O’Reilly has faced negative headlines. He was fired from Fox News following a sexual harassment scandal in 2017. He now hosts a podcast. An avid supporter of Donald Trump (who also faces numerous sexual assault accusations), O’Reilly called the accusations against himself “completely unfounded claims.”

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Omarosa Manigault Newman is best known for being Omarosa. Omarosa is best known for being a pretty wretched reality television star who rose to a form of celebrity during her many appearances on The Apprentice, hosted by disgraced president Donald Trump. When Trump won the electoral college vote in 2016, Omarosa ended up becoming one of the myriad White House aides to subsequently find themselves pushed out of a job in the following weeks and months.

Omarosa owed her position in Trump’s White House to her self-serving narcissism—something Donald Trump responds to in people, as the transactional nature of their existence mirrors his. However, like Donald Trump, Omarosa is willing to do and say anything, and throw anyone under a bus to make a buck, and realized very quickly that her best avenue of revenue, post-White House, was to write a tell-all book. Unhinged: An Insider’s Account of the Trump White House is that book, which details her time with the disgraced President. How much of the book is true remains to be seen—and heard, as Omarosa provided audiotapes as proof of some of her claims.

Since that time, Trump has predictably lashed out at Omarosa, while also predictably suing Omarosa for violating her nondisclosure agreement (NDA). He lost that lawsuit in 2021. Now, it is time for Trump to pay the piper.

RELATED STORY: Trump’s losing streak continues with Omarosa Manigault Newman NDA suit over tell-all book

RELATED STORY: Oh, Lordy she has the tapes! Omarosa reportedly has recordings of Trump in the White House

On Thursday, the Washington Post reports that an arbitrator ordered “Donald Trump’s presidential campaign to pay Omarosa Manigault Newman $1.3 million in legal fees over the Trump campaign’s unsuccessful lawsuit against her.” For all of Trump’s resources (read: other people’s money), his lawyers never seem to win these unwinnable cases.

Listen to Jennifer Fernandez Ancona from Way to Win explain how Democrats must message to win on Daily Kos’ The Brief podcast with Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld

Omarosa’s attorney, John Phillips, told the Post that this was “the largest known attorney fee award against a Political Campaign or President we can find.” Trump’s NDA was considered by an arbitrator far too vague to shut down Omarosa’s right to say that Trump’s cabinet was filled with old-timey white supremacists, like former Secretary of Education Betsy DeVos. The incompetent orange one’s NDA couldn’t stop Omarosa from claiming that Trump said racist stuff inside of the White House, or that Trump’s team of pedestrian family hangers-on offered her a stipend to stay quiet.

RELATED STORY: Omarosa claims Betsy DeVos said black students who booed her ‘don’t have the capacity to understand’

Phillips also told the press that he hoped this victory “will send a message that weaponized litigation will not be tolerated and empower other lawyers to stand up and fight for the whistleblower and vocal critic against the oppressive machine.” Phillips went on to point out that, while $1.3 million is a lot of money, it “pales in comparison to the $3 to $4 million the Trump Campaign paid its own lawyers in order to suppress speech,” reminding the Post that that money came from “a lot of donations.” Oh, yes. That’s the stuff.