On a day that we’re lucky if there is only one mass shooting and on which congressional Democrats introduced a modest package of gun violence-related legislation, Georgia Republican Gov. Brian Kemp signed Senate Bill 319 Tuesday. This makes Georgia the 25th state to adopt a law allowing anyone who can legally own a firearm to carry it concealed without a permit or training. The signing was done, naturally, at a gun store in Douglas County and takes effect July 1. In the past two months, Republican governors in Alabama, Ohio, and Indiana have also signed such so-called constitutional carry laws. In the past 16 months, 10 states have enacted such laws.
It’s another victory for the National Rifle Association gun lobby and the even more extreme Gun Owners of America (GOA). The basic concept: if everybody is armed all the time just about everywhere, we’re all safer. I took note of the ridiculousness of this in Wannabe Wild Bill Hickoks fantasize heroic gunplay.
Nearly 40 years ago, the NRA began its crusade to get every state to issue concealed-carry permits to anyone who could legally own a firearm. When they began, nearly no state did so. Now, all but eight states do so. To get a permit, many states have required applicants to have a specific need for carrying—such as dangerous employment—and to undergo background checks and training, including live-fire proficiency tests.
But beginning in 2009, the GOA and subsequently the NRA began a new crusade to eliminate permits altogether. At the time, just Vermont and Alaska were in that category. Now, as the green states in the map below show (with Georgia not yet included), 25 states have such laws on the books, the product of heavy lobbying. It doesn’t always work. Most recently, such a move failed by two votes in Nebraska. Here’s a state roster with some details.
The green states are those with “constitutional carry” laws letting people who can legally own a firearm to carry it concealed with no permit and no training required. As in Georgia, the laws in Indiana, Ohio, and Alabama go into effect in a few months.
Kemp had vowed to sign such a law during his 2018 campaign, which also featured him in a much-ridiculed TV ad that showed him pointing a shotgun at an actor depicting someone who wanted to date Kemp’s daughter.
In the three years after his election, Kemp did little to push permit-less carry at the Legislature, until former U.S. Sen. David Perdue declared he would challenge the governor for the state’s highest office. Perdue accused Kemp of being a “career politician who hasn’t delivered” for gun rights advocates or backed other cultural issues popular with the party’s conservative core.
While pursuing permit-less carry is considered a play for GOP voters, a poll by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution earlier this year found that about 70% of Georgia voters polled do not believe Georgians should be allowed to carry a concealed weapon without first obtaining a license. Of those, 54% of respondents who identified as Republican and 60% of those who said they were conservative opposed allowing handguns to be carried without a permit.
In an ad last week, state Democrats blasted Kemp for planning to sign the law.
No permit. No background check. 70% of Georgians oppose it and law enforcement has major concerns. But @BrianKempGA plans to sign a dangerous “criminal carry” bill into law that weakens public safety by making it easier for criminals to carry hidden, loaded guns in public. pic.twitter.com/NYoDn3M1qX
— Georgia Democrats (@GeorgiaDemocrat) April 5, 2022
It should be noted that while Georgia and other “constitutional carry” states don’t require background checks, anyone who purchases a firearm from an authorized dealer must still undergo a federal background check. But that doesn’t cover the 20% or so of Americans whom analysts say acquire firearms in private sales or as gifts.
The most powerful opposition to permitless carry laws comes from law enforcement. For instance, when the Ohio legislature was considering its own law, Hamilton County Sheriff Charmaine McGuffey challenged it:
“To allow people to carry concealed with no background check, no documentation of who they are and no training is dangerous,” McGuffey told ABC News. “I am not against the Second Amendment—the right to bear arms. What I’m asking people to do is consider that there must be some failsafe placed into the system.” […]
“I have 900 officers,” she said. “Our deputies are well-vetted for their backgrounds, their personalities, their integrity, their ability to follow rules and follow the law, and I would not hand one of them a gun with no training.”
Shannon Watts
Numerous organizations advocating tougher gun restrictions also opposed the Georgia bill and those in other states. Among them:
“There’s a reason law enforcement officers overwhelmingly oppose permitless carry: it makes their jobs harder and puts their lives – and the lives of the people they’re sworn to protect – on the line,” said Shannon Watts, founder of Moms Demand Action.
“When states dismantle permitting systems and gut gun safety laws, gun violence goes up. Gun lobby-backed politicians are shamefully putting primary politics over public safety, and the consequences will be even more devastation for their constituents and the law enforcement officers they pretend they support.”
Depending on how broadly the U.S. Supreme Court rules in the case of New York State Rifle & Pistol Association (NYSRPA) v. Bruen, states requiring concealed-carry permits and training may have to relax or eliminate such provisions. That ruling is expected in June.
Meanwhile, President Joe Biden on Monday announced his second nominee to lead the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, Steve Dittelbach. The agency hasn’t had a permanent director since 2015, and Biden had to pull his original nominee—Dave Chipman—after foes raised a stink that made his confirmation unlikely. Chipman previously was an adviser to the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence and was viewed as anti-gun by advocates of looser firearm laws.
Biden announced the ATF will now require licensed gun dealers to keep their sales records until they close the business or give up their federal firearm license and then turn these records over the agency where they will be permanently kept. Previously, gun dealers could destroy their sales records after 20 years. The president also said Monday that it is cracking down on “ghost guns.” A White House Fact Sheet notes:
Today, the President […] will also announce that the U.S. Department of Justice has issued a final rule to rein in the proliferation of “ghost guns” — unserialized, privately-made firearms that law enforcement are increasingly recovering at crime scenes in cities across the country. Last year alone, there were approximately 20,000 suspected ghost guns reported to ATF as having been recovered by law enforcement in criminal investigations—a ten-fold increase from 2016. Because ghost guns lack the serial numbers marked on other firearms, law enforcement has an exceedingly difficult time tracing a ghost gun found at a crime scene back to an individual purchaser.
This final rule bans the business of manufacturing the most accessible ghost guns, such as unserialized “buy build shoot” kits that individuals can buy online or at a store without a background check and can readily assemble into a working firearm in as little as 30 minutes with equipment they have at home.
Democratic Rep. Joe Neguse of Colorado
In addition to the administration’s efforts, six Democratic members of the House of Representatives have introduced a package of modest bills designed they say to reduce gun violence. At his website, Rep. Joe Neguse of Colorado summarized the legislation:
Help for Healing Communities Act—this bill creates a new grant program in the Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) to provide funding for mental health services to those who have survived an active shooter event or incident of targeted violence. The aim of this program is to promote resilience and equity in communities that have recently faced an active shooter or event of targeted violence through implementation of evidence-based, violence prevention, and community engagement programs, as well as linkages to trauma-informed behavioral health services.
STOP Violence Act—this bill would provide federal funding for preventative security measures at active shooter sites and public assembly facilities. The Department of Justice’s anti-terrorism and emergency funding program currently allows for public agencies, US Attorney’s offices, public institutions of higher education and nongovernmental and victim services organizations to receive funding after a crime of terrorism or mass violence has occurred. The STOP Violence Act would expand this program to include the location of active shooter events, such as the Table Mesa King Soopers and public assembly facilities.
Safe Workplaces Act, this bill would direct the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health to conduct a study on threats of violence, including gun violence, in the workplace. Once the study has been completed, the Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) is tasked with developing best practices for employers to keep employees safe from these threats of violence which will be publicly disseminated.
Prioritizing Resources for Victims of Firearm Violence Act to designate as a fifth priority category programs that provide assistance and mental health services to victims of firearm violence and families of victims of homicide through the Victims of Crime Act (VOCA). Ensuring states allocate at least 10% of VOCA funding to these programs, to guarantee funding for victims and communities in need.
The other five Democrats introducing these bills are Veronica Escobar (Texas), Ted Deutch (Florida), Lucy McBath and Nikema Williams (Georgia.), and André Carson (Indiana).
In March 2021, less than two weeks before a shooter killed 10 people at a shopping center in Boulder, part of Neguse’s 2nd District, the Congressman introduced a universal background check bill. Biden again pushed for its passage on Monday. Across the political spectrum, universal background checks have been the gun-law reform with the widest approval. Yet Neguse’s bill remains stalled in Congress. And previous efforts to pass universal background checks—like the one introduced in 2013 in the wake of the Sandy Hook massacre of 1st grade school children and educators in Newton, Connecticut—have failed under a barrage of NRA lobbying. Despite the organization’s financial and internal troubles over the past couple of years, its agenda is still being carried out.
The “Rescue America” platform, released last month by Senate GOP campaign chief Rick Scott, garners just 27% support from registered voters with 59% opposed, while 14% say they aren’t sure.
Here’s the key features of Sen. Scott’s plan the survey asked about: As you may know, Republicans released a campaign plan called the “Rescue America” plan that would raise taxes on about 100 million working-class Americans and require Congress to re-authorize all laws every five years, which means programs like Social Security and Medicare could be eliminated if there is gridlock in Congress. Knowing this, do you support or oppose this plan?
Knowing that, Scott’s plan isn’t just unpopular with Democrats, 57% of independents also oppose it and it’s 16 points underwater with Republicans—basically a stone-cold loser.
Daily Kos senior writer Joan McCarter did a deep dive on the GOP platform, but the fact that Scott plans to raise about $1 trillion in revenue over a decade on the backs of working Americans while leaving GOP tax cuts for the wealthy in place seems especially noteworthy.
“If we’re fortunate enough to have the majority next year, I’ll be the majority leader, I’ll decide in consultation with my members what to put on the floor,” said McConnell. “And let me tell you what would not be part of our agenda. We will not have as part of our agenda a bill that raises taxes on half the American people, and sunsets social security and Medicare within five years.”
But the truth is, McConnell’s grip on the GOP caucus isn’t exactly ironclad so long as Donald Trump is still controlling the party. And Scott may, in fact, be eyeing McConnell’s job.
But the bottom line is, Scott is the only Republican Senator who has put pen to paper to lay out a vision for the caucus if the GOP prevails in November. That makes Scott’s plan the GOP platform by default. If McConnell has a different vision, it’s on him to actually communicate it.
Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin resigned Tuesday afternoon hours after he was indicted on federal bribery charges, but because it’s notoriously difficult to get off the ballot in New York, he will likely still be listed as a nominal candidate in the June Democratic primary. All of this presents a major complication for Gov. Kathy Hochul, who appointed Benjamin to succeed her as lieutenant governor last year and now faces the prospect of winding up a running mate she’s at odds with.
That’s because candidates for governor and lieutenant governor compete in separate nomination contests before running as a ticket in the general election, though Hochul and Benjamin had been running together and urging voters to select them both. The remaining candidates for lieutenant governor, by contrast, have each linked themselves with one of the governor’s primary foes: former New York City Councilwoman Diana Reyna is allied with Rep. Tom Suozzi, while activist Ana María Archila is running alongside New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams.
The candidate filing deadline passed last week, so it’s too late for Hochul to recruit a new number two. It’s possible that Hochul could decide to support one of the two remaining candidates for lieutenant governor, though Archila responded to Benjamin’s arrest by saying, “The governor announced that she would bring a new day, and I’m not sure that’s the case.” Hochul to date has been the frontrunner in her own race from day one, as every poll has found her far ahead of Williams and Suozzi, though both of her rivals are hoping that Benjamin’s downfall will change the calculus.
Benjamin, for his part, has far more than electoral chemistry to worry about. Federal prosecutors allege that, in his previous position as a state senator, he steered taxpayer money to real estate investor Gerald Migdol in exchange for political contributions. The authorities say that Migdol’s donations included illegal contributions to fake the origin of dozens of donations to Benjamin’s 2021 bid for New York City comptroller so that Benjamin could more easily qualify for public financing.
Benjamin badly lost that primary, but his career was temporarily revived months later when Hochul, who had ascended to the governorship after Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace, picked him as the new lieutenant governor. Hochul, a white Democrat from upstate New York, sought proverbial “balance” on her ticket by tapping a Black politico from New York City, though questions had been swirling about Benjamin’s campaign finances well before he was selected.
Have you read Mark Sumner’s Ukraine update on luck on the battlefield? It was excellent! I sure do love a well-written history education!
With rain fixing the battlefield in place, last night’s big news was the United States’ announcement that its next big shipment was being formulated. Both the $800 million aid package and the $100 million in Javelin anti-tank missiles will be fully delivered by the end of the week, thus the Pentagon is now formulating its next package, this one delivering $750 million worth of equipment. The U.S. has already donated equipment worth $2.4 million. This package does not require congressional approval. Here are the two headliners of this new package:
HMMWV (Humvee)
U.S. Army Humvees patrolling northern Syria in 2017.
As I previously wrote, Humvees are a fantastic addition to the Ukrainian army, and the United States has thousands of them sitting in storage as they get replaced by a new-generation vehicle. Ukraine already fielded the vehicle, so they have expertise running and maintaining them. It’s not a new system, and given that Humvees were included in the previous $800 million package, this is adding to an existing and growing stockpile.
The Humvee will be far more mobile than some of the rickety commandeered civilian vehicles currently used by many Ukrainian units, and could be of particular use to Ukrainian special operation forces operating behind enemy lines at night. But to be clear, they’re not immune to mud, as this particular crew found out while patrolling the Rio Grande valley down at the Mexican border.
National Guard Humvee had some mud issues while patrolling the U.S.-Mexico border.
Humvees can be modded out to no end—including mounting anti-tank missiles for fast shoot-and-scoot ambushes. Ideally, every Ukrainian infantry squad would have several of these. It’s impossible to deliver too many of them.
But even more exciting …
ARTILLERY
German M109 self-propelled howitzer. The U.S. has plenty it could send Ukraine.
I’ve argued that the United States should facilitate the transfer of the nearly 1,000 Soviet-era 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled artillery guns in NATO stock, as Ukraine already operates them in its arsenal. Remember, having to learn a new system delays deployment and makes it exponentially harder to maintain and support. While the United States doesn’t have any of these in its arsenal, it can “backfill” allies with more modern western NATO-standard options.
At yesterday’s press gaggle, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki said: “We’re working to provide the Ukrainians with artillery systems that they have recently requested in conversations between our governments. And we’re working to provide them with artillery from U.S. stocks but also to facilitate the transfer from other allies and partners as well, as we did with the S-300 and the backfill of the Patriot battery system.”
This is quite the surprise. Yes, the U.S. is working on getting Ukraine the same systems they’re already familiar with, but—and this is critical—they’re also sending American artillery. Any fears about sending “heavy” equipment or “offensive” equipment have evaporated. The only question now is, “Can Ukraine make use of this ASAP?” The United States has thousands of M109 self-propelled howitzers in storage, and the system is ubiquitous in NATO armies, many of which are in the process of replacing them. Germany alone has reportedly phased out 570 of them, Italy 221, the Netherlands 126, and Belgium around 100. If Ukraine has to learn any new system, with dramatic potential impact on the battlefield, this is it. Nothing else comes close.
The M109 (and all NATO heavy artillery) aren’t compatible with the munitions currently in Ukrainian hands. A whole new logistical chain will have to be built to support these in the field. On the other hand, it allows Western NATO countries to help supply ammunition, including smart rounds like the GPS-guided Excalibur artillery shells. Ukraine has a home-grown laser-guided artillery round it has used to great effect (examples here).
These guided shells are an even bigger game changer than the Switchblade suicide drones we’re so excited about. Ukraine is only getting 100 of the tank-busting Switchblade 600, likely because it’s a new weapon and the U.S. simply doesn’t have many in its arsenal. But laser-guided artillery munitions? Thousands are sitting in American and allied storage depots. The Excalibur has a range of 22 to 35 miles depending on variant, and is designed specifically to be used in civilian areas (like cities) where minimizing collateral damage is of paramount importance. Imagine how useful that will be in liberating cities like Kherson and Melitopol, and hopefully more down the line. New variants have additional laser guidance.
And if you’re fantasizing about taking out murderous Russian artillery, the 2S1 Gvozdika howitzers that make up the bulk of Russia’s heavy artillery have a range of 9 to 14 miles. Russian GRAD MLRS have a range of 12 to 19 miles, depending on the ammo. All of those would be well within range of guided 155mm rounds. Dumb rounds have a range of 8 to 13 miles depending on variants.
The catch? Cost. A dumb 155mm NATO-standard artillery shell costs around $1,000. The Excalibur costs $112,000 per round. So a mix of smart and dumb shells is the most likely outcome. Germany has its own guided 155mm shells, the SMArt 155 laser-guided artillery round (17 mile range), which could also find its way into Ukrainian hands if Germany ever gets its head out of its ass and commits fully to the war effort.
Now check this out:
A train of military equipment straining towards the border with Ukraine was seen at the railway station Gniezno (Poland) The following equipment can be seen on the platforms: ▪️American tracked command and staff machine M577 ▪️American self-propelled artillery 155mm pic.twitter.com/iHZ6zpfIFO
Nah, these M109s and supporting vehicles aren’t going to Ukraine. This is American gear, deploying to Poland or one of the Baltic nations as part of NATO’s reinforcement of its eastern flank. But soon, hopefully, one of these will truly be Ukraine-bound.
Wait, did someone say something about helicopters?
Russian Mi-17 helicopter.
Original reports claimed that the Pentagon was looking at adding attack helicopters to this package. Not long after, the helicopters were struck from the list. Considering that they were talking about Mi-17 transport helicopters modded with attack systems, that makes sense. First of all, any such modification would take time (and could be included in a future package, ready to roll), and second of all … the United States has Russian-built helicopters? Turns out yes, from back in 2011:
In a turnabout from the Cold War, when the CIA gave Stinger missiles to Afghan rebels to shoot down Soviet helicopters, the Pentagon has spent $648 million to buy or refurbish 31 Russian Mi-17 transport helicopters for the Afghan National Army Air Corps. The Defense Department is seeking to buy 10 more of the Mi-17s next year, and had planned to buy dozens more over the next decade.
The 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea would’ve ended such purchases, but there are reports that the U.S. Army operates the helicopters for its special forces, obscuring their activities in locations where Soviet-era gear predominates. And it turns out that the U.S. already handed over five Mi-17s to Ukraine that previously belonged to the Afghan military. I couldn’t find information on what might be left in U.S. hands, but it’s clearly something if they were under consideration.
Still, without air cover, helicopters are terribly vulnerable to Russian aircraft and missile systems, and especially so on the Donbas front, close to Russia’s one zone with bona fide air superiority.
And the ‘Coastal Defense Drones’?
The Washington Post reported that “coastal defense drones” could be part of the package. No clue what that’s about. Never heard of such a thing, and some quick googling came up with nothing. I honestly don’t think they exist, and I’m guessing the reporter misunderstood (like calling a howitzer a “tank”). So … maybe regular drones? Or more Switchblades? More of those would be nice.
Next on the wish list?
Now that the taboo against “heavy” weapons is shattered, let’s get the M2 Bradley Infantry Fighting Vehicleinto Ukrainian hands. It is being phased out of the U.S. Army, and there are thousands available for gifting.
American M-2 Bradley operating in Syria.
The Bradley is nowhere near as difficult and complicated to maintain and supply as a modern combat tank, it can be mounted with tank-killing missile systems, it can protect infantry during the kind of open ground combat we’re seeing in south and east Ukraine, and it can more safely transport infantry to combat zones than softer-skinned vehicles (including through defensive Russian artillery barrages). To get a sense to how much simpler the Bradley is, the training program to maintain it is 12 weeks, while it’s six months for the M-1 Abrams tank. And the Bradley uses regular diesel, not jet fuel like the Abrams.
(In case you’re wondering, a U.S. Army artillery mechanic has a 15-week training program. Maintaining the Bradley is simpler than the M109 system. It does mean fielding the M109 has a real training curve.)
Information is everything. Watch what these MLRS systems are able to do when they have an accurate target. The systems firing the missiles themselves are not even in sight of the target, but thanks to the to-the-meter information provided by the drones, they are able to direct the fire from miles away with absolutely astounding accuracy.
Plus … Ukrainian music.
#Ukraine: Indirect fire from the 14th Separate Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Army striking Russian targets, observed from both TB-2 and commercial drones. Although what is hit is very unclear, it appears that 3+ vehicles are damaged or destroyed. pic.twitter.com/xQGGJzwZMM
— 🇺🇦 Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) April 13, 2022
And speaking of information, these images from commercial satellite imagery firm Maxar show some incredible detail. They give a sense of just how much information U.S. intelligence is able to provide the Ukrainian defense ministry when it comes to the movement of Russian forces.
Despite the label that the forces shown here are moving toward Ukraine in western Russia, the fourth image actually appears to be inside of Ukraine, southeast of Kharkiv.
#Satellite imagery reveals Russian forces continue moving into eastern #Ukraine. Military deployments were observed along the 14k-34 highway and the corridor that leads from Soloti and Valuyki in western Russia towards the border with Ukraine. Imagery is from April 11, 2022. pic.twitter.com/6wq5CKyiWf
Ten people were shot in the Tuesday morning shooting, with five critically injured. Another 13 sustained injuries from smoke inhalation—the suspect tossed two smoke grenades—or while fleeing the gunfire.
While James has not been named as a suspect … there’s that $50,000 reward. He had rented a U-Haul van, the keys to which were found at the site of the shooting, along with a credit card with his name on it. James is also linked to a series of YouTube videos—from which the police took a screenshot to use as his picture in identifying him as a person of interest—in which a man, apparently James, is shown “delivering extended tirades, many of them overtly concerned with race and violence, often tying those subjects in with current events, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the policies of [New York City Mayor Eric] Adams,” The New York Times reported.
In a Monday video, James says, “I’ve been through a lot of s**t, where I can say I wanted to kill people. I wanted to watch people die right in front of my f**king face immediately. But I thought about the fact that, hey man, I don’t want to go to no f**king prison,” CNN reports.
In another recent video, he says, “We need to see more mass shootings. Yeah. … We need to see more, there has to be more mass shootings to make a n***er understand. … It’s not about the shooter; it’s about the environment in which he is, he has to exist.” James is Black. The YouTube videos reportedly use racist and misogynistic language.
Due to comments about Adams in the videos, the mayor’s security is being increased.
Police are asking the public to share any cellphone videos from the scene of the attack or elsewhere that may help them locate the suspect.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
●OR-06: In an unprecedented move that was greeted with instant fury by local and national Democrats alike, the House Majority PAC began spending at least $1 million this week on TV ads promoting the campaign of Carrick Flynn, one of seven Democrats seeking to represent Oregon’s brand-new 6th Congressional District.
The other six candidates released an unusual joint statement condemning the move on Monday, calling out the fact that four of the contenders are women, including three women of color. (Flynn is a white man.) “This effort by the political arm of the Democratic establishment to buy this race for one candidate is a slap in the face to every Democratic voter and volunteer in Oregon,” read the press release, “and is especially concerning in a year when all resources must go to protecting the Democratic majority.”
Oregon Sen. Jeff Merkley, who hasn’t backed anyone in the race, piled on as well, calling HMP’s actions “flat-out wrong”. Meanwhile, the Congressional Hispanic Caucus’s BOLD PAC, which has endorsed state Rep. Andrea Salinas, also excoriated HMP, arguing that “Democrats should be doubling-down on their investments to empower Latino and Latina candidates” and pointing out that no Hispanic person has ever represented Oregon in Congress. (One unnamed operative wondered aloud to The Hill‘s Rafael Bernal whether HMP’s decision might “affect[] the relationship where Bold PAC is no longer a large donor to HMP like they’ve been in the past.” The CHC has given more than $6 million to HMP since 2012.)
In response, a spokesperson for HMP offered a spectacularly unconvincing explanation for the group’s new spending. “House Majority PAC is dedicated to doing whatever it takes to secure a Democratic House majority in 2022, and we believe supporting Carrick Flynn is a step towards accomplishing that goal,” said communications director CJ Warnke in a statement. “Flynn is a strong, forward-looking son of Oregon who is dedicated to delivering for families in the 6th District.”
There’s nothing so special about Flynn that he’s a must-have nominee—and if there were, he wouldn’t need all this help. As Merkley says, Democrats “have multiple strong candidates” who could all win the 6th District, a newly created seat in the Portland suburbs that Joe Biden would have carried by a 55-42 margin.
But what really makes HMP’s claim impossible to believe is that the PAC, in its decade-long existence, has never before involved itself in a primary like this. Virtually all of the organization’s spending since inception has been devoted to winning general elections. Just twice has HMP reported spending anything to support Democratic candidates in primaries, and in both cases, they were seeking open seats in California where Democrats were worried about getting locked out of the November election due to the state’s top-two primary rules: Julia Brownley in the old 26th District in 2012 and then Salud Carbajal in the old 24th in 2016—ironically, a joint effort with the CHC. The PAC has never simply taken sides in a traditional partisan primary.
So why now? Flynn has already been the beneficiary of a $5 million TV and radio ad campaign by another super PAC called Protect Our Future, which is funded by a free-spending 30-year-old billionaire named Sam Bankman-Fried, who made his fortune in cryptocurrency and has lately been seeking to influence policy-making on that front in D.C. (Forbes says he’s worth $24 billion. Incidentally, the CEO of the crypto exchange Bankman-Fried founded, Ryan Salame, just this week announced the formation of a similar super PAC aimed at Republicans.)
Bankman-Fried’s interest in Flynn is unclear—the candidate claims he has “never met or talked to” his benefactor, and any coordination between the two would be illegal—but Protect Our Future’s involvement in the race has prompted a great deal of speculation. As the campaign manager for engineer Matt West, one of the other Democratic hopefuls, put it to OPB’s Dirk VanderHart, “Do I know exactly what was exchanged by [Bankman-Fried’s] people and [House Majority PAC’s] people? No, but I can speculate, as can everyone, that promises have been made.”
In other words, goes this line of thinking, HMP is breaking with 10 years of tradition to help Flynn in the expectation that Bankman-Fried will come through with a presumably larger donation to the PAC, which in 2020 eclipsed the DCCC as the largest outside spender on House races on the Democratic side. But if this theory is true, what makes things even more bizarre is that Bankman-Fried could easily dump as much money as he’d like to boost Flynn through his own super PAC. Why go through HMP, then, unless this is a play for winning influence within a major arm of the Democratic Party?
It’ll likely be a while before we find out the full story, though. HMP files financial reports with the FEC every month, but the report detailing any transactions in the month of April won’t be available until May 20—three days after the Oregon primary.
As for the ad itself, it’s narrated by small businessman Quandray “Q” Robertson, who says, “As an owner of a boxing gym, I know a fighter when I see one.” Though Robertson is shown prepping and later sparring with a boxer, he means it metaphorically, as the athlete on-screen is not actually Flynn. Instead, says Robertson, Flynn will “stand up to the Trump Republicans” while tackling climate change and prescription drug costs.
Meanwhile, Salinas has also released her first TV ad of the race, which she narrates herself. She says her father “started working the fields” but found a “path to citizenship, and a better life” thanks to his military service in Vietnam. With his experience as inspiration, she says she “passed the country’s strongest reproductive rights law,” fought for lower drug prices, and “took on polluters to combat climate change.”
Redistricting
●NH Redistricting: The New Hampshire Supreme Court has appointed Stanford Law professor Nathan Persily as a special master to draw a new congressional map for the state in the event that a deadlock between the Republican-run legislature and GOP Gov. Chris Sununu remains unresolved. The court, however, cautioned that it was only taking “preliminary steps … in the event that the legislative process fails to produce a fully enacted congressional redistricting plan.”
●NY Redistricting: A New York appellate judge has kept in place a stay of a recent lower court ruling that struck down the state’s new congressional and legislative maps, allowing this year’s elections to proceed under the new lines, for now. However, Appellate Division Judge Stephen Lindley did say that the trial court judge, Patrick McAllister, could proceed with hiring a special master to draw a new congressional map, which could be used in the event that the state’s highest court, the Court of Appeals, upholds McAllister’s decision.
●AZ-Sen: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly’s new spot features footage of the former astronaut in zero-g as he tells the audience, “Compared to Congress, the way NASA operates might seem kind of upside down. Putting the mission first. Working as a team. And getting the job done —no matter what.” The senator proclaims that he’s “doing things differently” than the rest of the D.C. crowd and will “put aside the party politics so we can accomplish results, together.”
●NC-Sen: SurveyUSA takes a look at the May 17 Republican primary on behalf of WRAL and finds Rep. Ted Budd beating former Gov. Pat McCrory 33-23, with just 7% going to former Rep. Mark Walker. Several other recent polls have also given Budd the lead.
●NV-Sen, NV-Gov: The Reno Gazette-Journal has released a poll from Suffolk University testing several different hypothetical general election scenarios for Senate and governor, and it finds things close overall. Former Attorney General Adam Laxalt posts a 43-40 advantage over Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto, while Army veteran Sam Brown, who is the underdog in the June Republican primary, edges her out 40-39.
Turning to the governor’s race, Suffolk pits Democratic incumbent Steve Sisolak against five different Republicans:
41-29 vs. venture capitalist Guy Nohra
39-35 vs. attorney Joey Gilbert
39-39 vs. former Sen. Dean Heller
37-39 vs. Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo
37-40 vs. North Las Vegas Mayor John Lee
●PA-Sen: Lt. Gov. John Fetterman has publicized an internal from GBAO that finds him leading Rep. Conor Lamb 44-19 in the May 17 Democratic primary, while state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta takes 17.
On the GOP side, TV personality Mehmet Oz is trumpeting his endorsement from Trump in his new ad, and he also gets in a swipe at former hedge fund manager David McCormick. “Trump knows who the real conservative is who’s gonna shake up Washington,” says the narrator. “It’s not David McCormick, the liberal pro-Biden, pro-China, Wall Street insider.”
Governors
●GA-Gov: Gov. Brian Kemp’s allies at Hardworking Georgians are out with a Cygnal poll arguing that he’s in a strong position both to claim the Republican nod and defeat Democrat Stacey Abrams in the fall. The survey shows Kemp taking 49% of the vote on May 24, which is tantalizingly close to the majority he needs to avoid a July runoff, while former Sen. David Perdue is well behind with 33%; Cygnal also finds the incumbent ahead 52-37 in a two-person contest. The general election portion gives Kemp a 50-44 lead in a rematch with Abrams even as she edges out Perdue 48-47.
Abrams, for her part, is continuing to run positive spots to reintroduce herself to voters. One ad is based around a testimonial from Lara Hodgson, an independent who describes how she partnered with Abrams to build a successful small business. The spot briefly alludes to the candidate’s recent cameo on “Star Trek: Discovery” when Abrams explains that she and her co-star are a bit different: “Laura’s more Star Wars,” says Abrams, to which Hodgson responds, “Stacey’s … Star Trek.” Another commercial features a Macon restaurateur crediting Abrams for helping her and her community during the pandemic.
●MN-Gov: State Sen. Paul Gazelka has picked up an endorsement from the Minnesota Police and Peace Officers Association, which is the largest police union in the state, in his quest for the Republican nomination for governor. The Minnesota Reformer described the development as a “blow to former Hennepin County Sheriff Rich Stanek,” who is one of the many other Republicans who is competing for the state party endorsement at the May 13-14 convention.
●OK-Gov: While Gov. Kevin Stitt had looked secure ahead of his June Republican primary, NBC reports that two dark money groups have together spent a hefty $3.3 million to derail him. The incumbent is now firing back with an ad declaring, “The insiders and casino bosses are spending millions to attack Kevin Stitt because he won’t do their bidding, resorting to lies, smears, even actors.” The story says that Stitt has spent a total of $468,000 on ads so far, while his allies at the RGA are deploying another $577,000 to support him.
Stitt only picked up a notable intra-party challenger last month when Oklahoma Department of Veterans Affairs Director Joel Kintsel launched his bid to unseat his boss, but the offensive against the governor began well before then. All the way back in December, an organization called Conservative Voice of America began running ads attacking Stitt for approving the 2020 release of an inmate named Lawrence Anderson, who was charged the next year with murdering three people, while another group called Sooner State Leadership has deployed similar messaging. (Public Radio Tulsa said Anderson’s release was “apparently recommended by the state pardon and parole board by mistake.”)
CVA, per NBC, has spent $1.7 million so far, while SSLF has dropped a similar $1.6 million. A third outfit, The Oklahoma Project, said in December that it would spend $500,000 total to thwart Stitt. The group’s messaging has been different from that of the other two, though, as its ads have argued that the governor has failed to achieve results.
Last month, Fox 23 sought to learn more about Stitt’s critics. It traced TOP’s donations back to George Krumme, an oilman and longtime member of the Democratic National Committee. SSLF, meanwhile, was formed by former GOP state Rep. Trebor Worthen, but the organization is not required to divulge its donors. Worthen, in the words of KOCO, said his group “is made up of business and community leaders dedicated to encouraging strong leadership in Oklahoma,” adding that it planned to spend a total of $10 million. There’s even less information available about CVA except that it’s run by longtime lobbyist and Republican staffer Mike Cys.
●PA-Gov: Tuesday was a truly chaotic day in Pennsylvania’s Republican primary for governor that began with Donald Trump urging voters, “Do not vote for Bill McSwain, a coward, who let our Country down.” Multiple media sources reported minutes later that state Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman was about to drop out of the race, but while Corman himself essentially confirmed those stories in the afternoon by asking that his name be removed from the May 17 ballot, there was one last twist left: Corman announced in the early evening that he’d decided to stay in the contest because of “President Trump’s statement on the race and my conversation directly with the president.”
We’ll start with McSwain, who appeared to be in a good position until Trump declared he’d never endorse the man he’d once appointed as U.S. attorney for the eastern portion of the state. Trump reiterated the Big Lie to pummel the candidate, claiming that McSwain “did absolutely nothing on the massive Election Fraud that took place in Philadelphia and throughout the commonwealth.”
That was dismaying news for McSwain, who had in fact tried to use the Big Lie to gain, rather than lose, Trump’s support. His efforts included a letter to Trump last year claiming that his office had “received various allegations of voter fraud and election irregularities” and alleging that “Attorney General Barr, however, instructed me not to make any public statements or put out any press releases regarding possible election irregularities.”
Trump was all too happy at the time to use McSwain’s missive to backup his own lies and bludgeon Barr, who responded by saying his old subordinate “wanted to not do the business of the department, which is to investigate cases, but instead go out and flap his gums about what he didn’t like about the election overall.” On Tuesday, though, McSwain got to be the victim of his own words when Trump claimed he “knew what was happening and let it go. It was there for the taking and he failed so badly.”
All of this drama inspired Corman to continue a once-promising campaign that he was about to end after several major setbacks. Corman was arguably the primary frontrunner when he entered the race to succeed termed-out Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf back in November, and he raised more money than any of his intra-party rivals in 2021. However, the Philadelphia Inquirer reported that his team initially believed they would bring in considerably more during that time: The state Senate leader seemed to agree as he soon went through an intense staff shakeup, but he never managed to fix things.
Corman ended late March with just over $270,000 left in his campaign coffers, and McSwain ominously didn’t even bother to mention him in a recent ad targeting three other opponents. Corman himself seemed to recognize he was doomed on Tuesday when he formally sought to have a state court remove his name from the ballot, but hours later he filed a new petition asking the body to ignore that first request. He explained that he’d spoken to Trump, who “encouraged me to keep fighting, and that’s what I’m going to do – keep fighting for the people of Pennsylvania.” This saga may not be quite over, though, as ABC27 writes, “It is not guaranteed Corman will be able to remain in the race after his first petition was filed.”
●VT-Gov: Republican Gov. Phil Scott reiterated this week that he wouldn’t announce whether he’ll seek a fourth two-year term until Vermont’s legislative session adjourns May 20, and he insisted to NBC 5 that he was truly undecided. “I think a lot depends on what happens in the next month with the Legislature in this legislative session—what we accomplish and what we don’t,” said the governor, who currently faces no serious opposition from either party. The filing deadline is May 26, so a Scott retirement would give other candidates very little time to make up their minds if he does indeed wait as long as he says he will to make up his mind.
House
●MN-01: Former Department of Agriculture official Brad Finstad has earned endorsements from Reps. Michelle Fischbach and Pete Stauber, who represent the 7th and 8th Districts in the northern part of the state, ahead of the May 24 special Republican primary.
●MT-01: In her opening ad for the June Democratic primary, public health expert Cora Neumann stands in front of her modest childhood home in Bozeman and tells the audience, “But now, houses like this are surrounded by mansions like this. And everyone is paying more.” She continues, “In Congress, I’ll go after rich outsiders driving up costs, take on price gougers, and fight for housing we can actually afford.”
●NC-13: Former state Sen. Sam Searcy says in his inaugural spot for next month’s Democratic primary that his family’s job and housing struggles motivated him “to help folks.” Searcy continues by saying that in the legislature he “fought like hell to expand Medicaid, and stood with Gov. Cooper to stop Republicans from restricting voting rights and a woman’s right to choose.”
●PA-12: EMILY’s List, which is supporting state Rep. Summer Lee in next month’s Democratic primary, is out with a poll from GQR that shows her outpacing attorney Steve Irwin 38-13. This is the first survey we’ve seen of the contest for this open seat.
●WV-02: Rep. Alex Mooney has released a new internal from Public Opinion Strategies that gives him a 42-31 lead over fellow incumbent David McKinley ahead of the May 10 GOP primary. The last survey we saw was a March poll for the West Virginia Chamber of Commerce that put McKinleyahead 38-33; the organization had not yet endorsed anyone when that poll was released, but it and the West Virginia Manufacturing Association both backed McKinley this week.
●CLF: The Congressional Leadership Fund, the well-funded super PAC aligned with the Republican House leadership, has endorsed seven more House candidates challenging Democratic incumbents:
AZ-04: Tanya Wheeless
NV-03: April Becker
NY-18: Colin Schmitt
NY-19: Marc Molinaro
PA-08: Jim Bognet
TX-28: Cassy Garcia
TX-34: Mayra Flores
Two of these candidates face notable intra-party opposition: Wheeless has to get past Chandler City Councilman Rene Lopez before she can take on Arizona Rep. Greg Stanton, while Garcia faces a May 24 runoff against 2020 nominee Sandra Whitten in Texas’ 28th District. (Democrats have a far more high-profile contest that day between conservative Rep. Henry Cuellar and attorney Jessica Cisneros.) Flores, meanwhile, is already the GOP nominee, while the other four contenders should have little trouble in their own primaries.
Attorneys General
●SD-AG: South Dakota’s Republican-run state House voted to impeach state Attorney General Jason Ravnsborg by a 36-31 margin on Tuesday, a move that temporarily suspends Ravnsborg from his job while he awaits trial in the state Senate.
Last year, Ravnsborg, a Republican, pleaded guilty to misdemeanor charges for striking and killing a man with his car in September of 2020 but avoided jail time. A special investigative committee recommended against impeaching Ravnsborg last month, saying he had not committed a “crime or other wrongful act involving moral turpitude by virtue or authority of his office” because he wasn’t on duty as attorney general at the time of the accident.
However, a majority of lawmakers disagreed with that interpretation, noting among other things that Ravnsborg had identified himself as attorney general in a call to 911 the night of the crash. All eight Democrats were joined by 28 Republicans in favor of impeachment, while 31 Republicans voted against. Ravnsborg would be permanently removed from office if two-thirds of the Senate, which can commence a trial no sooner than May 2, votes to convict him.
Other Races
●NY-LG: Lt. Gov. Brian Benjamin resigned Tuesday afternoon hours after he was indicted on federal bribery charges, but because it’s notoriously difficult to get off the ballot in New York, he will likely still be listed as a nominal candidate in the June Democratic primary. All of this presents a major complication for Gov. Kathy Hochul, who appointed Benjamin to succeed her as lieutenant governor last year and now faces the prospect of winding up with a running mate she’s at odds with.
That’s because candidates for governor and lieutenant governor compete in separate nomination contests before running as a ticket in the general election, though Hochul and Benjamin had been running together and urging voters to select them both. The remaining candidates for lieutenant governor have likewise each linked themselves with one of the governor’s primary foes: former New York City Councilwoman Diana Reyna is allied with Rep. Tom Suozzi, while activist Ana María Archila is running alongside New York City Public Advocate Jumaane Williams.
The candidate filing deadline passed last week, so it’s too late for Hochul to recruit a new number two. It’s possible that Hochul could decide to support one of the two remaining candidates for lieutenant governor, though Archila responded to Benjamin’s arrest by saying, “The governor announced that she would bring a new day, and I’m not sure that’s the case.” Hochul to date has been the frontrunner in her own race from day one, as every poll has found her far ahead of Williams and Suozzi, though both of her rivals are hoping that Benjamin’s downfall will change the calculus.
Benjamin, for his part, has far more than electoral chemistry to worry about. Federal prosecutors allege that, in his previous position as a state senator, he steered taxpayer money to real estate investor Gerald Migdol in exchange for political contributions. The authorities say that Migdol faked the origins of dozens of donations to Benjamin’s 2021 bid for New York City comptroller so that Benjamin could more easily qualify for public financing.
Benjamin badly lost that primary, but his career was temporarily revived months later when Hochul, who had ascended to the governorship after Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace, picked him as the new lieutenant governor. Hochul, a white Democrat from upstate New York, sought proverbial “balance” on her ticket by tapping a Black politico from New York City, though questions had been swirling about Benjamin’s campaign finances well before he was selected.
P.S. Hochul will once again be able to fill the now-vacant lieutenant governorship, just as she did when she herself ascended to the top job after Andrew Cuomo resigned in disgrace. Notably, she can do so unilaterally, with no confirmation vote from the legislature required.
On this week’s episode of The Brief, hosts Markos Moulitsas and Kerry Eleveld chatted about what to expect in the midterm elections later this year and what’s missing from mainstream coverage of this cycle. They also spoke with guest Angelo Carusone, president and CEO of Media Matters for America, who joined the show to discuss Republicans’ messaging strategy heading into the midterms, the danger presented by Fox News, and how people can take real, meaningful action to disarm the misinformation-spreading media conglomerate. Media Matters is a nonprofit organization and media watchdog group that keeps a close eye on false information spreading in the media—particularly right-wing media outlets—and Carusone offered a deeper dive into what we can expect this fall from Republicans in light of what is being discussed on Fox News.
As both parties count down the weeks and strategize ahead of November, Moulitsas is predicting:
What Donald Trump has done is, he’s made it 2020 all over again. It’s a campaign that is going to be, in large part, a rehashing of the 2020 election, and that sort of mixes things up. Does it mean that we’re going to win like we did in 2020? Not necessarily. But that means that there’s another wild card. And then you talk about the Supreme Court getting rid of Roe v. Wade in the summer sometime. There are so many wild cards … Remember, in 2016, all the polls had Donald Trump losing. He was unpopular, you’re like, ‘There is no way he can win.’ He wins because everything went right for him. He threw a straight flush. That’s the hope for 2022. I’m not saying it’s going to happen. I’m saying that if all the cards come out correctly, we actually have a real chance to pick up seats. This is not a guaranteed loss.
“I would just add that a lot of these mainstream overviews—a lot of them start with these historical references about how bad midterm elections are for the party that’s in power, et cetera. But they almost never get into the specifics of the personalities of someone like Herschel Walker or of Donald Trump making all these endorsements of people like Sean Purnell, who had to drop out of that Pennsylvania Senate race because he was an alleged wife beater and lost custody of his children. You know, like, these are real things happening on the ground. These are real personalities,” Eleveld noted. “They’re not just voting on Biden. They’re going to be voting on real personalities, and some of the personalities the Republicans are already putting up—especially in the Senate races, but we’re about to see more of what they’re putting up in these swing districts—these people are a little off their rocker in the way that they were in 2010 and 2012, when the Republicans were sort of ‘scheduled’ to take back the Senate and missed that opportunity twice in a row.”
Eleveld also believes that it is time for Biden to start “making enemies.” In fact, she argued that it is time for the White House to make Republicans actively vote against Democrats’ legislation through which they are attempting to make actual progress. Moving to push some popular policies—such as the insulin cap and the child tax credit in single-issue bills—onto the Senate floor, where Republicans will filibuster them, will make it clear that Republicans are obstructing progress and take the focus off of discord within the Democratic Party, particularly as it relates to Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema. She added: “This framing that ‘Democrats are failing’ as opposed to ‘Republicans oppose these measures’ that are, again, broadly, broadly popular [is so frustrating].”
As Moulitsas and Eleveld welcomed Carusone onto the show, the conversation about political narratives continued, but with a specific focus on how the media plays into driving these narratives, especially false ones.
Carusone talked about the false idea that Fox News and Fox Opinion are separate from one another: “One of the ways they convince people that they’re an actual news organization instead of, say, a partisan operation, is ‘Look at our news site. That’s real news.’ … You can point to all of their major narratives that they push and it will be nearly identical on what they call their news programming and their opinion programming … They’ve been increasingly getting rid of their news programs and replacing them with opinion hosts.”
Fox News also drove a lot of the disinformation in coverage of the attack on the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and Moulitsas said he was surprised by how quickly the narrative seemed to shape-shift to whatever was most convenient and absolved the GOP and Trump of any responsibility: “I saw the conversation [on Fox News] go from these are heroes of democracy, to they were hoodlums, to they were antifa and it was all a false flag, to now they’re heroes again. It seemed like they just threw every possible narrative, none of them internally consistent.”
Eleveld added that these were “crazy, crazy rationalizations” for what was going on. “Do you think that Fox helped open up the gate to that narrative so that Republicans in Congress picked up on it, or were Republicans in Congress already saying that, and then Fox sort of picked up on that narrative?” she asked Caruso.
Caruso answered that, while Fox News wasn’t the only network driving some of these false narratives:
They still have an enormous agenda-setting power. And they created, just by who they booked during that time period, the overemphasis on electeds that were pushing those conspiracies and those claims. It changes the narrative, because it creates a different permission structure. And once they started to inject the ideas that it was a false flag operation, that it was a setup, that it was being purely done to attack Donald Trump, it wasn’t that bad, it was overdramatized—it started to chip away at the consensus that had emerged. And that’s really the destructive power here, is that you take this one thing where in a brief moment, largely we all agree that it’s not okay. And they turned it into another political issue, almost like they did with COVID … you do that enough … and you change the consensus on [what should be nonpolitical issues].
Caruso added that Fox’s influence on people happens both directly and indirectly:
If you’re a regular Fox viewer and that is helping shape your worldview, your perception is going to be distinct from the reality. There was a study done a while ago, I think it was by Pew [Research Center], if you were a regular Fox viewer, you were fundamentally less informed than if you received no information at all—and that it actually was a net negative.
Moulitsas pointed out how all of the effects of false narratives shake out: “It’s a net negative for society in general … [but] it’s a positive for the conservative movement. As Stephen Colbert has said, reality has a well-known liberal bias. They have to actually undermine that—they can’t operate in the meaningful space of truth; they have to create this alternate bubble with alternate facts in order to be able to continue to make the kinds of arguments that they’re making.”
Based off of what narratives have been circulating on Fox News, Moulitsas asked Carusone: “Do you have a sense yet what that the Republican message is going to be in the 2022 cycle?”
Carusone thinks Republicans run a very similar playbook each midterm cycle, though it changes slightly depending on what issue they can make the new political boogeyman issue:
In 2014, it was ebola. In 2014, the biggest conversation narrative on Fox News was that Barack Obama was not doing enough to stop ebola … it was the major theme, and it was, in effect: ‘Obama is so bad about viruses, can you believe this?’ They really made it a thing. In other cycles, it was the [migrant] caravan. And what’s scares me is, there’s always a relationship. We do the analysis of Fox coverage hyping something, and then you can see the rest of the news media follows a week or so later because they can create a threat that becomes an issue … This cycle is going to be culture war stuff … It creates a schism and an internal food fight amongst the left, because it forces us to seemingly make a choice between winning elections and the values that we say we have. That is always a winning position for them. What they’re going to do is fearmonger about children, and that’s it.
Moulitsas made note of the current narrative that Republicans are spreading, which falsely ties the LGBTQ+ community to pedophilia and grooming.
“It lets them take control and take any little thing, whether it’s fabricated or not, and elevate it into a major controversial story. And that’s going to be their big push … around culture war themes,” Carusone agreed. “You can expect a real intense hyping. It’s going to be like war-on-Christmas level.”
“This is a purely ‘juice the base’ strategy—it’s not mainstream,” Eleveld added.
Closing out, Markos asked Carusone what people could do to take direct action against Fox News: “What can people do to stop funding Fox News directly?”
Caruso highlighted Fox News’ vulnerability in its reliance on subscriptions from cable subscribers, calling on viewers to take simple action to disarm the disinformation-spreading media conglomerate:
They don’t need ad revenue. They are the second-most expensive channel on everybody’s cable box … If these cable companies just drop Fox Business or hold the line … that’s the simple answer: people can call … cut the cord, and make sure they know you’re doing it because of Fox News. This is why One America News [Network] got dropped.
Indiana-born Kurt Vonnegut, who balanced his time between this universe and the alternate ones of his creation, died 15 years ago this week. So it goes. Wrote Dinitia Smith in her New York Timesobituary:
Like Mark Twain, Mr. Vonnegut used humor to tackle the basic questions of human existence: Why are we in this world? Is there a presiding figure to make sense of all this, a god who in the end, despite making people suffer, wishes them well? […]
Not all Mr. Vonnegut’s themes were metaphysical. With a blend of vernacular writing, science fiction, jokes and philosophy, he also wrote about the banalities of consumer culture, for example, or the destruction of the environment.
A good time to remind ourselves below the fold why he was…well…Kurt Vonnegut:
Continued…
“The big trouble with dumb bastards is that they are too dumb to believe there is such a thing as being smart.”
“Being a Humanist means trying to behave decently without expectation of rewards or punishment after you are dead.”
Kurt made the world safe for bed heads everywhere.
“The good earth—we could have saved it, but we were too damn cheap and lazy.”
“It’s perfectly ordinary to be a socialist. It’s perfectly normal to be in favor of fire departments.”
“Librarians, not famous for their physical strength or their powerful political connections or their great wealth, who, all over this country, have staunchly resisted anti-democratic bullies who have tried to remove certain books from their shelves and have refused to reveal to thought police the names of persons who have checked out the titles.”
“Those who believe in telekinetics, raise my hand.”
“As for preparing this country against an attack from anti-missile anti-missile anti-missiles. By developing an anti-missile anti-missile anti-missile anti-missile, I may be in the minority, but I think the American people should spend the money on hospitals and housing and schools and Ferris wheels instead.”
And my favorite, which remains my personal motto for the 57th consecutive year:
I tell you, we are here on Earth to fart around, and don’t let anybody tell you different.
And now, our feature presentation…
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Cheers and Jeers for Wednesday, April 13, 2022
Note: Please don’t say “gay.” Yell it through a bullhorn like a proper lady or gentleman. Thank you.
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By the Numbers:
7 days.
Days ’til Arbor Day: 11
Days ’til 420 Day: 7
Percent of Americans polled by ABC News/Ipsos who mostly blame Putin and/or oil companies for price hikes at the pump: 70%
Percent chance that Russia just defaulted on its foreign debt, according to Standard & Poors: 100%
Number of K-Mart stores that’ll be left (down from over 2,000) when the one in Avenel, NJ closes this week: 3
Rank of Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Denveron the latest list of busiest airports in the world: #1, #2, #3
Year Baskin-Robbins, which saw an 11% spike in ice cream sales last year, was founded: 1945
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Mid-weekRapture Index: 187 (including 5 “Liberalisms” and 2 days ’til the Big Event). Soul Protection Factor 16 lotion is recommended if you’ll be walking amongst the heathen today.
JEERS to inflation. After promising that it would only be a blip on the economic radar, it’s now poised to do to Democrats in November what Ukraine is now doing to Russia’s tank convoys. Holy shit:
U.S. inflation data hit a multidecade high last month amid surging gas prices and skyrocketing rents, climbing to 8.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday.
Believe it or not, I looked it up and this effing thing is the root cause of all the inflation right now.
A survey by the financial data group FactSet had predicted that the inflation reading for March would come in at 8.4 percent year-over-year—the highest rate since December 1981 and an increase from February’s 7.9 percent.
Ah yes, December 1981. Two months before the Oscar for best actor and actress went to Henry Fonda and Katherine Hepburn for On Golden Pond. But there is a bright side to all this. And as soon I find out what it is, I’ll let you know.
CHEERS to trouble in Gooper Land. I’m under no illusions that these hiccups will go anywhere, but it’s still nice to see citizens who love their country press the case that those trying to tear it down should be kept from being leaders in it. To that end…
Marjorie Taylor Greene is in trouble because “A federal judge seems likely to rule that a lawsuit seeking to bar conspiracy theory-pushing Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, R-Ga., from running for re-election [because of her aid to the Jan. 6 insurrection] can go forward.” Also: she apparently has a strong primary challenger and is a’ scared.
They’re taking it well.
Madison Cawthorn is in trouble because “11th-District voters say Cawthorn should be disqualified from running for office again because he violated Section 3 of the U.S. Constitution’s 14th Amendment … [which] prohibits a government official from running if they previously swore an oath to the Constitution and subsequently engaged in an insurrection.”
Lauren Boebert is in trouble because she’s Lauren Boebert.
And Dr. Oz is in trouble because when the previous Republican president—aka Captain Insurrection—endorsed him, the MAGA cult exploded in outrage because they think he’s Oprah in a rubber Dr. Oz suit and not, as some believe, JFK Jr. in a rubber Dr. Oz suit.
I’m sure they’ll devote whatever time and resources they need to bully their way out of their respective jams. I mean, it’s not like they work or anything.
CHEERS to #3. Happy 279th birthday to founding father and President #3 Thomas Jefferson. Cormac O’Brien’s book Secret Lives of theU.S.Presidents sums up the “Sage of Monticello” rather well (although we’re quick to do a facepalm over his ownership and treatment of slaves which was, shall we say, deplorable):
Thomas Jefferson was the walking, talking embodiment of the Enlightenment, a polymath whose list of achievements is as long as it is incredibly varied.
As if penning the Declaration of Independence, sitting as governor of Virginia during the Revolution, and serving as Secretary of State in George Washington’s first term weren’t enough, he went on to do much more—architecture, linguistics, agriculture, philosophy, music, prose, you name it. While others dabbled, Jefferson mastered.
Nice digs, Tom.
He left behind a vast collection of essays and correspondence, which reveal a mind of stunning complexity and apparent contradictions. Jefferson was an avowed abolitionist whose fortune relied on a large population of slaves, a forward-thinking humanist whose opinions on minorities such as Native Americans could be truly alarming; a man whose awkwardness around women stood in stark contrast to his legendary romances.
Pay your respects here. Jefferson, by the way, was also “fond of greeting ambassadors in his pajamas—a practice that most of them found appalling.” If you ring our doorbell tonight, I’ll treat ya to a free reenactment with a bonus spritz of Cheez Whiz..
CHEERS to happy endings. 52 years ago this week, en route to the moon, Apollo 13commander Tom Hanks Jim Lovell Are you sure it was Jim Lovell and not Tom Hanks, I think it was Tom Hanks Jim Lovell announced, “Houston, we’ve got a problem” after Richard Nixon used his Sith powers to cause an oxygen tank to explode. (Did too! Look it up!)
Through sheer brilliance on the part of NASA’s team and the crew, they returned safely four days later. A “successful failure” is what they called that mission. Or as it’s also known: “a typical day at Fox News.”
P.S. Only 709 monthly payments to go and Jim Lovell will have paid for the damage. (They begged him to buy Geico exploding-oxygen-tank insurance, but did he listen? Noooo…)
CHEERS to the calm before the storms. Last week we highlighted for-profit weather forecasting company AccuWeather’s Atlantic hurricane season predictions: 16-20 named storms—5 sponsored by Nabisco, 6 sponsored by Nike, and 9 sponsored by various drugs you should ask your doctor if they’re right for you because YES, YES, YES THEY ARE HERE TAKE A FISTFUL AND COME BACK FOR MORE!!! Now, with just 49 days to go, the meteorological elves at Colorado State University are out with their 2022 forecast(pdf). They’re predicting a more active year than last year: 19 named storms (up from 17 in 2021) and 9 hurricanes…4 of them major. But more important, check to see if your name is on the 2022 storm list:
Don’t forget: if a hurricane with your name on it causes any damage, it’s up to you to pay for it. Don’t blame me, I don’t make the rules, I just—[pats baseball bat]—enforce ‘em.
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Ten years ago in C&J: April 13, 2012
CHEERS to getting his day in court. George Zimmerman was told by police to stay in his van. What kind of asshole feels such animosity and suspicion of someone that they would disregard that order, stalk a kid, and get in a scuffle that results in a homicide? That’s what I keep asking myself: What was he thinking??? I guess we’ll find out when Zimmerman goes before a jury of his peers on charges of second-degree murder.
[Nancy Grace cartwheels past Bill in Portland Maine, shouting “Wheeee!!!!”]
Gee, I hope this doesn’t turn into a circus.
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And just one more…
CHEERS and JEERS to hippity-hoppin’ back to normalcy. It’s the most Paaserrifictime of the year—Easter! And for the first time since the Trump Plague enveloped the land, the White House Easter Egg Roll is back on. This year the child who finds the golden egg wins the most coveted prize in all the land: a tank of gas at 2020 prices. (Remember kids: no biting, kicking, or stuffing other children in trash bins—and that goes for you, too, not just your parents.)
But you know what sucks this year? The souvenir wooden Easter Egg Roll eggs that I’ve collected since I was knee-high to a grasshopper are effing SOLD OUT. Gone within hours of going on sale. Poof. Sawdust in the wind. (But, of course, already available via the vultures on eBay for five times the original price.) But fear not. I have come up with a solution that takes advantage of EXCLUSIVE CHEERS AND JEERS CUTTING EDGE TECHNOLOGY. Here’s a pic of this year’s eggs:
Worthless on its own, yes. But when I label it a “Non Fungible Token” and you print it out for your very own? You got yourself a set of collector’s eggs worth a cool $250,000 on the crypto market. And that’sno yolk! Thank you and good night!
Have a happy humpday. Floor’s open…What are you cheering and jeering about today?
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Today’s Shameless C&J Testimonial
“At the U.S. Department of Justice, we will be tireless in our efforts to put an end to the plague of Cheers and Jeers and save the sanity of those we love.”
I Commanded U.S. Army Europe. Here’s What I Saw in the Russian and Ukrainian Armies.
The two armies at war today couldn’t be more different.
What can you learn about a military from its band? Usually, not much. But putting on great performance requires some of the same skills as conducting a military operation. It requires recruiting the right people with the right talents (and many militaries, including the American military, use bands as a recruiting tool). It requires equipping those people with the right technology—often highly specialized—so they can do their job. It requires training those people to work together to perform complicated tasks with impeccable timing. It requires developing young leaders, managing logistics, and maintaining high morale. The sergeant I spoke to observed that what came through in the Ukrainians’ performance is that they wanted to be there, they wanted to be great, and their leaders were inspirational.
After not backing any French presidential candidates during the first-round campaign — including the one from his own Les Républicains party, Valérie Pécresse — former French President Nicolas Sarkozy is calling on voters to back Emmanuel Macron.https://t.co/ZcQd0u7UG4
Mélenchon’s far-left voters become France’s reluctant kingmakers
There’s only one problem. It’s not clear that Mélenchon or his supporters really want to appoint a king.
While Mélenchon himself is a staunch Le Pen opponent, there has long been an overlap between his voters and the far-right leader’s followers, something the veteran politician is acutely aware of. Both him and Le Pen have campaigned on cost of living, targeting voters who have felt sidelined by globalization and who increasingly resent Macron’s economically liberal agenda.
In admitting defeat late Sunday, Mélenchon — unlike several other losing candidates from mainstream parties — pointedly avoided telling his followers to back Macron on April 24. The farthest he would go was simply imploring them to “not give a single vote” to Le Pen.
We see that problem in the US, which is how Republicans stay competitive. Sometimes you just have to suck it up and vote against the fascist, not just sit home.
This is the single most important tweet thread you can read today, this week, this month. The food security bill for the Ukraine war is coming due with real starvation & food riots in the offing for a lot of the global south. Please Retweet this @johnkonrad thread widely👇 1/ https://t.co/d36DUlzTJd
Philips P O’Brien/Twitter on logistics for resupplying the Russians:
More logistics attacks inside Russia by Ukrainian forces? Here is a railway bridge between Belgorod [Russia] at the Ukraine border near Kharkiv that definitely looks intentionally damaged (explosions pushing upwards). Exactly the targets Ukraine should be prioritising.
Belgorod railway damage (explosion) appears to be the work of Ukrainian SF groups — creating doubts for Russia at a time that it wants to commit everything it has for a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/4q2bfJHkQj
Emmanuel Macron to face Marine Le Pen in French presidential election runoff
“However much they may dislike Le Pen, there is a world of difference between her and Macron, and how she would disrupt European and global politics.”
Le Pen is the daughter of another famous far-right presidential candidate, Jean-Marie Le Pen. The elder Le Pen made it to the runoff against Jacques Chirac in 2002, but Marine Le Pen has managed to perform better than her father in the first round of each of the past two presidential elections.
Le Pen has tried to portray herself as a very different candidate to the one who lost to Macron in 2017, when she attempted to position herself to the forgotten French working classes as her country’s answer to then-US President Donald Trump. While her economic nationalist stance, views on immigration, euroskepticism and positions on Islam in France are unchanged, Le Pen has sought to broaden her appeal.
just noticing this little Easter egg that was hidden at the end of the U.S. judge ruling last week ordering the seizure of Vekselberg’s yacht. pic.twitter.com/Tp92eAaAhJ
So…my cautious thoughts Shanghai/COVID-Zero-in-China. Yes, I am self-censoring on this one, so this is one of those threads where those of you who need explicit statements and can’t read implied meaning and nuance are going to have a tough time.
So Shanghai is locked down and cases are still going up.
1. Everyone is still in surgical masks- local government could distribute KN95s, won’t.
Even though COVID was first declared airborne in China, and our scientists *know* it’s airborne, average Chinese still think droplets.
50 fines issued against @BorisJohnson’s Number 10 for breaking covid laws. After he repeatedly told Parliament and the country none were broken. It says all you need to know about the @Conservatives that they have fought to keep a proven, serial liar as Prime Minister.
Americans’ perceptions of the jobs picture aren’t very accurate, but perceptions that we’re actually losing jobs appear to mostly come from people who already don’t like Biden. And that 1) is as it ever was, and 2) mostly comes from people who don’t rely on mainstream media outlets for their news.
A new CBS News/YouGov poll released this weekend asked a similar question as the aforementioned poll (The Washington Post avoids citing surveys conducted by partisan groups). A majority — 51 percent — correctly said jobs had increased over the previous year, compared with 23 percent who wrongly said they had decreased. Twenty-six percent said the jobs picture hadn’t changed.
Similarly, the Pew Research Center in January asked people whether they thought the “availability of jobs” was better or worse than a year ago. Even more, 57 percent, said it was better, while just 19 percent said it was worse…
None of which is to say the media’s coverage of this has been exemplary; contextualizing the current economy, in particular, is difficult. Critics point to stories that reference the jobs picture but then layer it with other indicators that don’t reflect as well on Biden’s economy, or simply mention the public’s general dissatisfaction.
But those layers matter: We simultaneously have one of the lowest rates of unemployment in recent history, and one of the highest rates of inflation. Which economic indicator is going to be most readily apparent to broad swaths of the country? Unless you or those you know are gaining or losing jobs, you might not have a good read on the country’s overall jobs picture. But you see gas prices and other costs rising. So you might think “economy = not good” and assume people are worse off in other ways, too. If you’re predisposed against the Biden administration — or perhaps if you get your news mostly from outlets that are disinclined to mention thosejobs figures in a positive light — that’s not a big leap.
