Independent News

This post was originally published on this site

After a two-month break, the 2022 primary season has resumed! Polls closed in Ohio at 7:30 PM ET and at 6 PM ET in the portion of Indiana located in the Eastern Time Zone, while the rest of the state followed an hour later.

You can find our guide to the key contests here. We’re liveblogging the results here and also covering the returns closely on Twitter.

Results: IN | OH

This post was originally published on this site

The provision of free legal help to detained immigrants in San Diego has kicked off, The San Diego Union-Tribune reports. The county’s board of supervisors approved the $5 million pilot program last year. Advocates hope it can provide urgent relief to immigrants detained in harmful conditions in the area.

“Everyone in this nation—everyone — has the right to a fair day in court,” Supervisor Terra Lawson-Remer said in the report. “This is going to change lives.” One main reason is because unlike in criminal court, people facing immigration court aren’t guaranteed legal help if they can’t afford it.

While a number of U.S. cities have created legal funds to assist immigrants, “San Diego would be the first southern border county in the United States to provide legal representation for those in federal immigration custody who are facing removal proceedings,” the Associated Press reported last year. Under the Immigrant Rights Legal Defense Program, the San Diego County Public Defender Office is working with the American Bar Association Immigration Justice Project, Jewish Family Service, and the Southern California Immigration Project to provide legal services.

The pilot program stands to have its greatest impact at the CoreCivic-operated Otay Mesa Detention Facility, where advocates say immigrants have faced prolonged detentions in harmful conditions for as long as a year. The private prison is where the first immigrant to die of COVID-19 was held. Since then, it’s failed numerous unannounced inspections. Meanwhile, other detained people have faced extraordinarily high bonds, up to $50,000, that make their release impossible.

“If one of the program’s clients is released from detention, that person will remain a client for the duration of the case unless they move away from San Diego,” The San Diego Union-Tribune reported. “The program does not disqualify potential clients based on criminal history.” Roughly a dozen people are being represented at the moment, the report said.

That immigrants will be able to continue to access legal help should they stay in the area will be hugely impactful. When immigrants have a legal representative in their corner, they’re more likely to be released from detention and be able to stay in the U.S. American Civil Liberties Union of San Diego and Imperial Counties Executive Director Norma Chávez-Peterson told The San Diego Union-Tribune that the Immigrant Rights Legal Defense Program “makes our nation’s immigration system just a little bit more just and more humane,” though “we still have a long way to go.”

The Biden administration last fall announced policy to provide legal help to vulnerable asylum-seeking children in a number of U.S. cities. Unaccompanied children have had to appear in immigration court alone, a horrific feature of our immigration system that has been going on for years but gained greater attention during the previous administration’s family separation crisis. Legal service providers have worked to represent some asylum-seeking kids in U.S. custody, but it’s nowhere close to the universal representation that’s needed.

“We applaud the Biden admin for its new initiative, Counsel for Children,” tweeted Kids In Need of Defense following the president’s policy announcement. “It is the right step in providing fairness and assistance to unaccompanied children, so they aren’t forced to navigate our complex immigration system alone.”

This post was originally published on this site

People have flooded social media in outrage in the hours after Politico published a leaked draft opinion indicating on Tuesday the Supreme Court’s intention to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision protecting abortion rights. Woman after woman, activist after activist, person after person shared their stories of what led them to have an abortion. They used the hashtag “shout your abortion.”

In a sentence: Their stories are powerful.

RELATED STORY: Shocking SCOTUS leak shows abortion rights overturned under draft opinion from Justice Alito

Writer and editor Brooke Brannon tweeted: “I had an abortion when I was 28, unmarried, and not ready to have a child. I did not regret it then and do not regret it now. #shoutyourabortion”

While many are sharing their stories in an attempt to remove the shame and stigma attached to getting an abortion, others chose to share their stories anonymously via a platform dubbed Shout Your Abortion. The organization, a nonprofit, has the mission of “working to normalize abortion through art, media, and community events all over the country.”

Amelia Bonow founded the organization with social justice activist Lindy West after Republicans tried to defund Planned Parenthood in 2015. Bonow wrote in an Oprah.com essay that she shared her abortion story on Facebook then. “On September 19, 2015, I blew up my life,” Bonow wrote. “Not intentionally—I was in Seattle, looking forward to finishing a master’s program in mental health counseling. In fact, I was supposed to be writing a paper when I found out that the House of Representatives had voted to defund Planned Parenthood.”

RELATED STORY: Leaked draft opinion shows Supreme Court striking down 50 years of precedent on abortion rights 

Bonow continued:

I kind of unraveled, sitting on my couch crying, wondering, Who’s standing up for the clinic workers? And for women who have abortions? I opened Facebook and, without thinking, wrote, “Like a year ago, I had an abortion at Planned Parenthood…and I remember this experience with a nearly inexpressible level of gratitude.” I hit Post 153 words later, and everything changed. 

She said after posting on Facebook, people responded with their own abortion stories, and aided by a screenshot from West, Bonow’s post went viral. 

“Over the next couple of days, tens of thousands of women flooded social media to talk about their abortions. And I received abuse and threats; one site released my home address,” Bonow wrote. “I was inundated by media requests and had some tough conversations— my conservative 93-year-old grandmother wasn’t thrilled to hear Glenn Beck talking about me on his radio show.

“But after we discussed it for an hour on the phone, even she said she was proud of me.”

If you would like to share your story about abortion, please feel free to do so in the comments.

Donate here to support those who may be seeking an abortion.

Campaign Action

This post was originally published on this site

Protests began Monday night in the wake of Politico publishing a leaked Supreme Court draft opinion from Justice Samuel Alito that would essentially overturn Roe v. Wade and bodes terribly for reproductive rights. With Alito’s lengthy opinion threatening a host of rights, including marriage equality, people have taken to the streets to fight against such a damaging potential ruling. Demonstrations in front of the Supreme Court saw hundreds of people coming together in a show of solidarity. Shortly after, protests were planned across the country. Multiple demonstrations will take place in New York, with Amazon Labor Union organizer Christian Smalls among countless others tweeting times and locations for events. Smalls’ tweet shows how intrinsically linked reproductive rights are to labor rights, as workers have been battling for decades for equality in health care and access to necessary services like abortions.

Countless unions have voiced their support of preserving Roe, as have activists in other organizing spaces. It only makes sense that their calls for reproductive justice would include taking to the streets on Tuesday. In Michigan, where abortion restrictions preceding Roe were never eliminated, Planned Parenthood is asking folks to take to the state capitol Tuesday evening. Organizers with the Women’s March have urged people across the country to demonstrate in front of courthouses, federal buildings, town halls, and squares. And groups like the Party for Socialism and Liberation also have protests planned around the country on Tuesday and Wednesday.

More and more scenes from protests are popping up on social media, with demonstrators gathering in Georgia, Nebraska, Missouri, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Texas.

Demonstrators in Florida are rightfully targeting Gov. Ron DeSantis, who is not only aggressively anti-abortion but has made a concerted effort to enact laws that target reproductive health care access for pregnant people and the LGBTQ community.

My state is showing out, y’all! Reproductive rights are especially essential for communities in Louisiana, which is one of 13 states that have trigger laws on the books that would automatically ban abortions were Roe to be reversed. Louisiana also faces some of the most severe weather threats due to climate change, which further threatens access to reproductive health care. As I wrote earlier, reproductive justice is an essential component of seeking environmental justice.

Hundreds took to Kerry Park in Seattle to protest Alito’s draft opinion and the potential elimination of Roe v. Wade. Though the state of Washington has relatively progressive laws protecting the right to choose, many who live there have had to travel more than 25 miles for abortion access — a particularly barrier for more vulnerable communities.

We Testify provided space outside the Supreme Court for those who’ve had an abortion to share their stories. The organization has done powerful work to center reproductive health care in its fight for equality while also supporting the LGBTQ community.

New Yorkers are out in full force to protest Alito’s draft opinion and advocate for reproductive rights. Multiple demonstrations are taking place across New York City, including at Barclays Center and Foley Square.

So far, the amount of pro-choice demonstrators have far exceeded the amount of counter-protesters near the Supreme Court.

A crowd has gathered in Portland, Maine in front of the U.S. District court. Planned Parenthood shared a tweet of the scene:

Demonstrations are taking shape in the nation’s capital, with Politico’s Nicholas Wu noting the presence of dump trucks meant to “block 1st St. and the SCOTUS protests.” Additional on-the-ground footage shows the steps to the Supreme Court completely blocked off.

I’ll be following the protests as they unfold throughout the evening so please comment if you’re attending any actions in your community. And sign the petition urging Congress to codify Roe v. Wade.

This post was originally published on this site

www.patreon.com/keefknight

This post was originally published on this site

Abortion is still legal in the United States. The recently-leaked draft Supreme Court opinion does not yet change that. But should the high court opt to ignore the bodily autonomy of people who can become pregnant everywhere in America and overturn Roe v. Wade—a nearly 50-year-old federal law—that decision could spark dire consequences and likely at neck-breaking speed. 

In mid-April, the Guttmacher Institute updated its 2021 analysis on states that are “certain or likely” to ban abortion without Roe in place. It found that 22 states had laws on the books or constitutional amendments ready to usher in the bans.

Disturbingly, of those 22 states, 13 have existing “trigger” laws that are meant to go into effect if Roe falls. A breakdown of those states is provided below—but it is critical to note that these are states with existing trigger bans on the books.

States like Florida, Indiana, Montana, or Nebraska might not have trigger laws yet, but they are considered regions teetering on abortion access as-is. Other states, like Alabama, South Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, and Georgia have already attempted to strike down access to abortion in the courts. Guttmacher expects those efforts will resume if the high court abandons Roe.

Fifty-three Democratic state party organizations responded to the leak with a statement Tuesday, noting that the “shockwaves” of former President Donald Trump’s presidency—and his impact on the judiciary—are “neither gone nor forgotten.”

But that shouldn’t serve as a deterrent, they argue:

“Many of us live in states where abortion access has been overturned or torn apart by extremist Republicans who have no business interfering in personal health decisions. Abortion bans are not favored by a majority of Americans, and they never will be. They are, however, supported by an extremist group of right wing primary voters and donors—and that’s why the GOP continues to fight to restrict abortion access nationally and in our legislatures.  

“In the wake of this decision, the Supreme Court’s anticipated opinion will signal a return of power to the elected representatives of each state and territory. Therefore, it is important now, more than ever, that we protect and exercise those rights that remain intact—our First Amendment rights to associate and to vote representatives into office who will stand firm and protect their constituents from the threats and whims of conservatives.

“Across America, our State Democratic Parties will work tirelessly to recruit, train, and support Democratic candidates for state and federal office who will fight for the right to abortion. We encourage our federal legislators to codify Roe immediately. We cannot and will not wait.”

Related story: From contraception to LGBTQ rights—Alito’s draft opinion on Roe opens the floodgates

The following states each have a trigger ban in place. Many on this list also already have other prohibitions in place—think a six-week or eight-week abortion ban or a “near-total” ban:

• Arkansas
• Idaho
• Kentucky
• Louisiana
• Mississippi
• Missouri
• North Dakota
• Oklahoma
• South Dakota
• Tennessee
• Texas
• Utah
• Wyoming

Arkansas

In Arkansas, it is currently illegal to get an abortion if you are more than 30 weeks pregnant. Arkansas Governor Asa Hutchinson took that a step further in 2019 when he approved a trigger law proposing to automatically ban abortion in the state if Roe was overturned.

Some medical emergencies are allowed as an exception, for now. 

Arkansas abortion providers face up to 10 years in prison if caught breaking the law and could also be forced to pay a fine of up to $100,000.

A federal judge last July blocked an attempt by the state to enforce a “near-total” abortion ban there, meaning that regardless of nearly all circumstances, a person would be unable to obtain an abortion. 

Idaho

in Idaho, state legislators and Governor Brad Little have a trigger law in place that would make it a felony for health care providers to perform an abortion if “fetal cardiac activity” is detected. The trigger law recommends up to five years in prison for violators.

Another law in Idaho that passed this spring bans abortion at roughly six weeks—or just when fetal cardiac activity, i.e. a heartbeat, can first be detected. At this early stage, a pregnancy is often still unnoticed by the pregnant individual.

And if there are family members of the pregnant person who wish to sue the abortion provider, they could do that under the bill until just recently. 

The law was momentarily stopped by the Idaho Supreme Court on April 8.  

Kentucky

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s home state passed legislation this March that bans abortion after 15 weeks if Roe is overturned and only makes exceptions in cases where the pregnancy could be complicated and abortion is required to stop serious or fatal injury to the mother. There are zero exceptions for rape or incest.

Louisiana

For more than a decade, anti-abortion activists have prepared the way for this moment and in 2006, first passed a trigger law to flatly ban abortions once Roe is overturned. There would be no exceptions for rape or incest once the trigger law is implemented.

In 2019, legislators approved legislation that would stop abortions once cardiac activity was detected, mirroring other red states that lurched even further right on abortion of late.

According to New Orleans Public Radio, the existing trigger law in the books in Louisiana also promises to close the state’s three remaining abortion clinics. According to Guttmacher, of every state in the nation, those pregnant in Louisiana must travel the most distance to get to a state that would allow them to have a safe, legal abortion. 

Mississippi

Mississippi is at the center of Monday’s leaked draft opinion from the Supreme Court. Should Roe be overturned, existing trigger laws there would make it so that abortions can be stopped locally within just 10 days. 

In 2018, Mississippi passed a law barring abortions at 15 weeks except in the case of severe medical emergencies or fetal abnormalities. The leaked opinion penned by Justice Samuel Alito aligns itself completely with Mississippi and the rights of states to make that determination, not the individuals who are pregnant.

A final decision has not yet been issued but is expected before the end of June.

Missouri

If Roe is overturned, the state’s “Right to Life of the Unborn Child Act” would go into effect with speed. The law, once enacted, makes it a felony to perform an abortion unless there is a medical emergency. 

In 2019, the state passed a law that barred abortions after eight weeks, but that is currently under legal review. With the end of Roe, however, the eight-week ban would become enforceable.

In neighboring Kansas, it is important to point that out Republican legislators there have already introduced an anti-abortion amendment to its state constitution that would overturn a Kansas Supreme Court decision that found access to an abortion is a “fundamental” right. 

North Dakota

The anti-abortion stranglehold in North Dakota has been flourishing for years. In 2007, the state passed a trigger law that plans to make abortion illegal within 30 days of Roe being struck down.

It provides exceptions for mothers whose lives would be imperiled and those pregnant people who perform an abortion on themselves. Cases of rape and incest are also an exception to the state’s trigger law.

Violators could face up to five years in prison and up to a $10,000 fine.

Oklahoma

For those who become pregnant in Oklahoma, legal abortions are only available in order to save the life of the person giving birth.

There is a “near-total” ban on abortion in the state. 

Last month, the Oklahoma Senate passed legislation that barred abortions after six weeks while simultaneously asking the private citizenry to report those individuals they think are providing abortions to pregnant people.

Republican Governor Kevin Stitt also signed a bill into law recently that gives $10,000 as a reward to the person who helped land the successful conviction of an abortion provider. 

Last month, state lawmakers also passed legislation that revised language in the trigger law. The revision made it so that Oklahoma could kill access to abortions whether the Supreme Court overrules Roe “in whole or in part.”

South Dakota

Like its neighbor to the north, an abortion trigger law has been in place for more than a decade in South Dakota. 

The trigger law would make it a felony to administer or prescribe any “medicine, drug, or substance” or tools used to have an abortion. There is only an exception when trying to preserve the life of the “pregnant female,” the law states. 

If enacted through Roe’s reversal, abortion providers could be sentenced to up to two years in prison and face a fine of up to $4,000 or both.

Vocal anti-abortion advocate and South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem said Monday she would hold a “special session” to protect the “right to life” if Roe is in fact overturned later this summer. 

Speaking to her haste, under South Dakota’s trigger law, once Roe is declared dead, the new, stricter prohibitions would automatically go into effect. 

Tennessee

People seeking an abortion in Tennessee would have just 30 days after Roe is overturned before the state plans to implement its trigger law. Legislators there made all abortions illegal except when the health care would stop the death of the person giving birth. 

Tennessee passed the “Human Life Protection Act” in 2019. If Roe was reversed, doctors could face a felony charge for performing an abortion. The person receiving the abortion, however, would be exempt from prosecution.

Texas

Texas has some of the most medieval restrictions and penalties on its books when it comes to abortion access.

The Texas trigger law was passed in June 2021 and makes abortions illegal unless the person giving birth faces serious injury or could die. It would be enforceable 30 days after Roe is overturned and would also make it a felony for health care providers to provide abortions. 

Violators of the Texas trigger law could face life in prison and fines of up to $100,000 if convicted.

Last month, prosecutors dropped murder charges against Lizelle Herrera of Texas after she miscarried and attempted a self-induced abortion. Staff at a Texas hospital reported her after she made the private health disclosure. Prosecutors ultimately conceded Herrera did not commit a crime. 

Utah

This month two years ago, Utah passed a trigger law that would ban abortions in the state if and when Roe is overturned. Exceptions are made for individuals who are raped or are subject to incest. Pregnant people who might die due to complications from the pregnancy are also excepted. There can also be an exception if the pregnant person has two doctors who state that there are lethal birth defects.

Abortion providers in Utah could face felony charges with the trigger law’s implementation and conservative legislators in the state are already pushing to introduce another new amendment that would strike exceptions, including those exceptions made to preserve the life of the mother and in cases of rape or incest. 

Wyoming

In March, the state’s governor Mark Gordon signed a trigger law that would ban abortions within five days of Roe being struck down by the Supreme Court. There are exceptions in place for rape and incest and severe injury. 

Listen to a breakdown of the May primaries on Daily Kos Elections’ The Downballot podcast with David Nir and David Beard

This post was originally published on this site

After a two-month break, the 2022 primary season picks back up Tuesday in Ohio and Indiana, and we have plenty to watch. The main event is Ohio’s massively expensive Republican primary for the state’s open Senate seat, where venture capitalist J.D. Vance is hoping that a late endorsement from Donald Trump will put him over the top (even if Trump himself hasn’t bothered to remember Vance’s name), but it’s far from the only primary on tap.

Below you’ll find our guide to the key primaries to watch in both states. When it’s available, we’ll tell you about any reliable polling that exists for each race, but if we don’t mention any numbers, it means no recent surveys have been made public. And of course, because this is a redistricting year, both states on the docket have brand-new congressional maps. To help you follow along, you can find interactive maps from Dave’s Redistricting App for both Indiana and Ohio. 

Polls close at 6 PM ET in the portion of Indiana located in the Eastern Time Zone, while the rest of the state follows an hour later. Voting concludes in Ohio at 7:30 PM ET, and our live coverage will begin then at Daily Kos Elections. You can also follow us on Twitter for blow-by-blow updates, and you’ll want to bookmark our primary calendar, which includes the dates for primaries in all 50 states. 

● OH-Sen (R & D) (53-45 Trump): Republican Sen. Rob Portman’s retirement set off a crowded and extremely expensive GOP primary that features five serious contenders, though only one earned Donald Trump’s coveted endorsement in the final weeks of the contest. That candidate is venture capitalist J.D. Vance, the Hillbilly Elegy author and one-time vociferous Trump critic who has reinvented himself as a MAGA diehard. (Trump excused his old disloyalty at a recent rally, saying that while Vance “said some bad shit about me,” each of his rivals “did also.”) A super PAC largely funded by conservative megadonor Peter Thiel has also spent heavily to support Vance and has run ads touting Trump’s seal of approval.

The other hopefuls and their allies, though, are still hoping that voters won’t be so forgiving of Vance’s past impieties. Former state Treasurer Josh Mandel, who lost the 2012 Senate race to Democrat Sherrod Brown, and his backers at the Club for Growth have continued airing ads highlighting Vance’s old anti-Trump comments. Wealthy businessman Mike Gibbons, who took second in the 2018 Senate primary, has also spent heavily on his own commercials, though he’s continued to focus on bashing Mandel. 

Listen to a breakdown of the May primaries on Daily Kos Elections’ The Downballot podcast with David Nir and David Beard

Another candidate to watch is Portman’s choice, former State Party Chair Jane Timken, though her decision to stop airing ads on broadcast TV late in the race is an ominous sign for her chances. Finally, there’s state Sen. Matt Dolan, who co-owns Cleveland’s Major League Baseball team. Dolan, who is the one major candidate to condemn the Big Lie, has used his personal resources to run commercials touting himself as a more traditional conservative. Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly attacked him for changing his team’s name to the Guardians last year, a decision the state senator says he wasn’t involved in. 

We’ve seen a few polls since Vance won Trump’s endorsement, and they indicate he still doesn’t have the nod locked up. A Fox News survey found Vance leading Mandel by a small 23-18 margin, though Vance’s super PAC allies see him defeating the former treasurer 31-19. The Democratic firm Blueprint Polling, meanwhile, shows Dolan edging out Vance 18-17, with Gibbons and Mandel at 13% and 12%, respectively. 

Things are far less chaotic on the Democratic side, where Rep. Tim Ryan enjoys a huge financial edge over Morgan Harper, a former adviser to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau who unsuccessfully challenged Rep. Joyce Beatty for renomination in 2020, as well as two little-known candidates. 

The previews that follow are ordered by poll closing times and then race, with statewide contests first. 

● IN-01 (R) (53-45 Biden): Seven Republicans are competing to take on freshman Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan in this constituency in the northwestern corner of the state that changed minimally in redistricting, though the only two who have spent serious sums are former LaPorte Mayor Blair Milo and Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green. Milo, who went on to serve in Gov. Eric Holcomb’s administration, entered the primary as the frontrunner, but Green has aired ads arguing that the former mayor is a “Never Trump liberal” who refused to back Trump in 2016. 

● IN-09 (R) (63-35 Trump): Nine Republicans are running to succeed GOP Rep. Trey Hollingsworth, who unexpectedly announced in January that he would retire after just three terms, in this south-central Indiana seat that shifted eastward but remains a conservative bastion. Of the four most notable contenders, perhaps the most familiar name is former Rep. Mike Sodrel, who lost his bid for a second term in a far-more competitive version of the 9th in 2006 and waged failed campaigns to reclaim it over the following two cycles. Sodrel has mostly been self-funding his latest comeback bid, which has allowed him to outspend his many rivals. 

Former state Sen. Erin Houchin, who took second to Hollingsworth in 2016, is also trying again, and she’s benefited from almost $500,000 in aid from the cryptocurrency-aligned PAC American Dream Federal Action. Another name to watch is Army veteran Stu Barnes-Israel, who has also received over $900,000 in support from a group called Hoosier Values. (This post has been updated to reflect that PAC’s spending.) Rounding out the field is state Rep. J. Michael Davisson, who was appointed to the legislature last fall to succeed his late father, but he’s spent almost nothing. 

● OH-Gov (R & D) (53-45 Trump): Republican Gov. Mike DeWine faces three intra-party foes, with former Rep. Jim Renacci looking like the most serious of the bunch—but that might be giving the ex-congressman too much credit. Renacci, who lost the 2018 Senate race to Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown, has spent his time trashing DeWine’s handling of the pandemic, and he’s used his personal resources to self-fund most of his race. (“Why waste time trying to raise money when you’re running against an incumbent?” the former congressman recently mused.) However, DeWine and his allies have still enjoyed a massive financial edge. 

The contest also includes farmer Joe Blystone and former state Rep. Ron Hood, who badly lost last year’s special election primary for the 15th Congressional District, and a recent poll indicates that they’re costing Renacci some vital anti-incumbent votes. A Fox News survey released in the final week of the primary gave DeWine a 43-24 advantage over the former congressman, with Blystone at 19%. 

The Democratic primary is a duel between two former mayors who each left office at the start of the year: Cincinnati’s John Cranley and Dayton’s Nan Whaley. Cranley has enjoyed a modest spending edge, while Whaley has the support of Brown, who is Ohio’s most prominent Democrat. Cranley went negative about two weeks ahead of Election Day with an attention-grabbing ad in which he compared the performance of Cincinnati with Dayton’s during the two ex-mayors’ time in office. 

● OH-09 (R) (51-48 Trump): GOP mapmakers sought to weaken 20-term Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who has served in the House longer than any woman in history, by gerrymandering her Toledo-area seat, which under the old lines voted 59-40 for Biden. Two Republican state legislators are now running to take her on. State Sen. Theresa Gavarone enjoys the support of 5th District Rep. Bob Latta, who currently represents just over half the new 9th. State Rep. Craig Riedel, meanwhile, is backed by the infamous Jim Jordan, and he’s run ads pledging to join Jordan’s Freedom Caucus.  

Riedel has dominated the airwaves, with AdImpact reporting that he’d outspent Gavarone $290,000 to $43,000 on commercials going into the final week. J.R. Majewski, a conservative activist who has links to the QAnon conspiracy cult, has also generated some attention, but he has significantly fewer resources than either of his two rivals.

● OH-11 (D) (78-21 Biden): Rep. Shontel Brown faces a Democratic primary rematch against former state Sen. Nina Turner, a prominent Bernie Sanders supporter whom she defeated in last year’s special election in a 50-45 upset. Turner is hoping that she’ll gain ground now that the district has been redrawn to include all of her old base in Cleveland, but this time, she’s at a huge financial disadvantage as she goes up against the incumbent. Democratic Majority for Israel PAC, AIPAC, and the crypto industry-aligned Protect Our Future PAC have been airing ads in support of Brown, while Turner hasn’t benefited from any major outside spending. The congresswoman also earned an endorsement on Friday from President Biden.

● OH-13 (R) (51-48 Biden): This seat in the southern suburbs of Akron and Cleveland, which is a radically reconfigured mashup of five old districts, is open thanks to some unusual circumstances: Two incumbents might’ve sought reelection here, but one, Democrat Tim Ryan, is running for Senate while another, Republican Anthony Gonzalez, opted to retire after voting to impeach Trump.

That’s left us with a seven-way GOP primary, though Trump-endorsed attorney Madison Gesiotto Gilbert has decisively outspent her intraparty rivals. The field also includes former congressional aide Shay Hawkins, who lost a close 2020 race for the state House and whom The New York Times says is the one contender to air any TV ads. The winner will take on state Rep. Emilia Sykes, who faces no opposition in the Democratic primary.

Tuesday will be an exciting night, so we hope you’ll join us for our liveblog at Daily Kos Elections!

This post was originally published on this site

It’s fair to say that at this point in Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the reputation of the Russian military has shrunk by, if not 100%, something like 99%. Every film that made Russian forces seem like an unbroken mass of Dolph Lundgren clones marching perfectly along in their smartly tailored coats needs to be updated to represent the combination of sniveling incompetence and thoughtless brutality that seems closer to the truth.

In a purely physical sense, the U.S. Defense Department estimates that Russia has lost about 25% of the force it sent across the Ukraine border. On top of that, the U.K. Ministry of Defense estimates that about 25% of the Battalion Tactical Groups (BTG) that remain are “combat ineffective” due to lacking either personnel or equipment. In recent days, there have been reports of assaults from Russian forces that were far below the supposed scale of a BTG, and there have been translations like this one showing that a BTG with just two remaining tanks deliberately sabotaged one of them to keep from being sent into battle.

“Our tank, we broke it ourselves in the morning as to not go. BTRs went with out us and they have a lot of 200s [killed] and 300s [wounded] in critical condition.”

But losses on the battlefield and a withering loss of reputation aren’t the only ways the Russian military is shrinking. Based on some analysis from the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense, it seems like the standard BTG was literally not what it was cracked up to be.

Kos has written several times about the nature of Russia’s BTGs and what they’re meant to do.

A brigade combat team (BCT) is the U.S. Army’s basic maneuver unit. That is, the smallest deployable unit able to stand on its own (with intelligence, artillery, support, and other assets). Russia is organized around the much smaller BTG, which is what we see in Ukraine. Problem is, as that report states, it doesn’t take a lot of casualties to knock a BTG out of commission.

Exactly what constitutes a BTG has always been something of a question, but in general it’s supposed to be a somewhat self-sufficient army in the field, like a U.S. brigade combat team (BTC) . Only a BTC includes around 4,500 soldiers. A BTG contains something like 800 soldiers. Or maybe just 700. Or maybe it’s 600.

As it turns out, that last number turns out to be closer to correct, even if it’s still a smidge too high. The Ukrainian military has had a chance to see multiple BTGs in the field, and they’ve now issued a document describing a typical BTG. The document can be a little confusing because it includes numbers from a series of specialist BTGs, and the columns don’t all add up (Russia apparently does not play by U.S. spreadsheet rules). But the numbers at the bottom of the chart give away the game: 588 soldiers and officers. That’s what they’re seeing.

This helps to explain the high degree of BTGs that seem to have been easily knocked off kilter. As kos explained back at the beginning of the fight, the small size of the BTGs means that a single skirmish that takes out a few key elements can render the entire BTG unable to continue as a self-sufficient force—something that’s much less likely to happen with a larger, more robust U.S. BTC.

With that in mind, here’s a map put together by military analyst Henry Schlottman. Using the published positions of Russian BTGs that have been made available by U.S. and Ukrainian intelligence, Schlottman made an estimate of where each of those groups is focused, how much “front” each of them is addressing, and came up ultimately with a “kilometers per BTG” rating that shows where Russia is really putting in the effort. (I recommend that you click on this tweet, then on the map to see the image in its full size).

The results of looking at it this way show an order of magnitude of difference between the areas Russia seems to be beefing up for a push and those that seem more like efforts to secure any previous gains. For example, the area northeast of Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces seem to be taking back towns and villages by the day, has a “density” of 20 km/BTG. Meanwhile, next door in the Izyum area, Russia’s big stack of men and material results in a 2.7 km/BTG figure. Poor little Popasnya is similar. Seven BTGs are focused on a very small area there, resulting in 2.9 km/BTG.

The “least dense” area on this map is down by Kherson, where the number goes up to 22 km/BTG. However, that one is a bit deceptive. Schlottman calculated that based on an extensive potential line of combat, but most of that line is actually the wide Dnipro river. Both Russia and Ukraine have their forces there concentrated within a much smaller area. 

Looking at the map this way does seem to provide some kind of information. After all, those least-dense areas are the ones where villages have been changing hands. However, the other end of the scale doesn’t seem to be true so far. Neither Izyum nor Popasna has been the scene of big Russian advances in spite of incredible numbers of BTGs shoved together in a small space.

Why not? Well, that goes back to the other thing kos has written about on a number of occasions: the inability of Russia to coordinate their forces and conduct large-scale combined arms operations. As long as Russia can only send forces down the line one or two BTGs at a time, it doesn’t matter that they have 20 more in theater. In some ways, all those additional forces are more of a problem than a help because they put a strain on—say it with me—logistics, logistics, logistics. 

Looking at the kilometer per BTG doesn’t give a very good idea of where Russia is going to be effective. However, it probably is a pretty good idea of where they want to be effective. That alone makes the map worth studying.

Oh, and don’t be too concerned if the Ukrainian forces on the other side of those lines seem puny in comparison. Those Ukrainian numbers are in brigades. Here are the components of a typical Ukrainian brigade—in this case the 24th, which is based in western Ukraine. 

• Headquarters and Headquarters Company
• 1st Mechanized Battalion
• 2nd Mechanized Battalion
• 3rd Mechanized Battalion
• Tank Battalion
• 3rd Motorized Infantry Battalion, “Volya”
• Brigade Artillery Group
• Headquarters and Target Acquisition Battery
• Self-propelled Artillery Battalion (2S3 Akatsiya)
• Self-propelled Artillery Battalion (2S1 Gvozdika)
• Rocket Artillery Battalion (BM-21 Grad)
• Anti-tank Artillery Battalion (MT-12 Rapira)
• Anti-aircraft Missile Artillery Battalion
• Engineer Battalion
• Maintenance Battalion
• Logistic Battalion
• Reconnaissance Company
• Sniper Company
• Electronic Warfare Company
• Signal Company
• Radar Company
• CBRN-defense Company
• Medical Company

Each one of those battalions within the brigade is itself about 400 soldiers and 40 to 50 vehicles. In other words, this is a much larger structure than a BTG. And one that’s much harder to take out.

Just as with Russian forces, some of these brigades are going to be patched up and pieced together, with companies and battalions that have suffered heavy losses. Even so, none of them are likely to be “combat incapacitated.” 

Listen to Markos and Kerry Eleveld talk Ukraine and speak with Wisconsin Democratic Party Chair Ben Wikler on how hitting back at Republicans helps win elections on Daily Kos’ The Brief podcast

This post was originally published on this site

Americans across the country are reacting with rage after a leak of a draft opinion by Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito was published by Politico Monday. In it, the highest court defended their decision to reverse Roe v. Wade and rule in favor of Mississippi’s abortion ban—ultimately allowing for several states to pass anti-abortion laws of their own, as reproductive rights will no longer be protected at the federal level.

Within hours of the report being published protestors and demonstrators gathered outside the Supreme Court, demanding that the 1973 law be preserved. The country is rightfully angry and we can only hope this anger contributes to change and allows for the justices to rethink their decision, as the leaked opinion was just a draft and not their final decision. 

Here’s a roundup of how Americans across the country feel including legislators in various states and what they plan to do. Feel free to drop a comment with your thoughts. Right now, we feel; tomorrow, we act. 

Starting it off is fan-favorite Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who has always been at the center of the fight. Warren is rightfully expressing the rage most Americans are feeling right now.

Of course, Warren isn’t alone. Democratic governors across the country also reacted, and reiterated their dedication to preserving reproductive rights.

“In light of the reported decision of the Supreme Court to overturn Roe v. Wade, [Colorado] remains a state where freedom is respected and where any person has the ability to live, work, thrive, and raise a family on their own terms,” said Democratic Colorado Gov. Jared Polis.

“While states like Texas, Florida, and Arizona are engaging in the unwelcome intrusion of government into deeply personal and religious decisions, Colorado remains a refuge where any person has the ability to live, work, thrive, and raise a family on their own terms.”

Some people were more concerned about the document being leaked than the decision shared. Republicans across the country expressed their concern despite being glad to hear SCOTUS supported their anti-abortion policies.

“This unprecedented leak is concerning, outrageous, and a blatant attempt to manipulate the sacred procedures of the U.S. Supreme Court. Those responsible should be held accountable. My prayer is that Roe v. Wade is overturned and that life prevails,” said Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey, a Republican.

Others hopped on the trend, too.

“I have advocated for the reversal of Roe v. Wade all my political career. The leak from someone within the court is reprehensible and should lead to an investigation, but I do hope the court returns authority to the states,” said Republican Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson.

And, of course, some were excited that they may be able to advance their agenda sooner than later.

“If this report is true and Roe v. Wade is overturned, I will immediately call for a special session to save lives and guarantee that every unborn child has a right to life in South Dakota,” said Republican South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem.

One good thing coming from this leak is the unity in us all coming together for this fight to protect bodily autonomy and access to safe, legal abortion. We cannot go back. As Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz tweeted: “Not on my watch.”

November’s elections matter. We need to elect pro-abortion rights officials at the federal level to help Democrats pass legislation protecting abortion rights. 

Contribute now to support abortion funds providing financial assistance to people seeking abortion care.