The Humiliation of Alan Lichtman, Credentialed Idiot

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Alan Lichtman has always been a jackass. 

Lichman is famous for his “13 Keys to the White House,” which he claims are a foolproof method for predicting the outcome of presidential elections.  

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For those of you unfamiliar with the “13 Keys,” it isn’t insane to think that they, in themselves, are not a good thumbnail way to make a reasonable prediction about the likelihood that one candidate or another will win a presidential election. The keys are:

The 13 keys are:

  1. Midterm gains: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
  2. No primary contest: There is no serious primary challenger to the incumbents nomination.
  3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
  4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign challenger..
  5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
  6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
  7. Major policy change: The incumbent enacted major policy changes during his first term in office.
  8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
  9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandals.
  10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
  11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves major success in foreign or military affairs.
  12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
  13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

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Of course, it’s true that a better economy will make it more likely that the party in power will win, especially if the candidate is an incumbent and can claim credit. Similarly, a “charismatic” candidate will more likely win than not. 

If you think about it, most of our “gut” feelings are based on evaluations that mirror the keys. “Trump will win because the economy sucks” was a common feeling. 

So in principle, if not 100% predictive, the keys are a decent heuristic to use to figure out whether a candidate faces headwinds or is aided by tailwinds in the election. 

The problem with the “keys” is that many are subjective. Lichtman was sure that first Biden, then Harris would win because things are Hunky Dorey in America, and Trump is a meanie. 

Lichtman was so certain that Harris would win the election that he proudly trumpeted the claim, even getting into a famous spitting match with Nate Silver earlier in the year. Silver’s point, which was so obviously true that it shouldn’t have been necessary to say, was that if you applied the “keys” dispassionately, Trump was more likely to win than not. 

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This is where things get interesting to me. Lichtman has had a strong following for years based on his relentless self-promotion and an ability to tweak, after the fact, his evaluation of the keys to make him look like Nostradamus. 

In his fight with Silver, Lichtman’s evidence that he was right and Silver wrong was a classic: “I am a credentialed academic.”

This is a perfect encapsulation of the elite attitude. Lichtman, a “Distinguished” professor at American University, cannot comprehend the idea that he is ever wrong and a prole could ever be right. 

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The Humiliation of Alan Lichtman, Credentialed Idiot 1Which gets us to his humiliation yesterday on Piers Morgan’s show, which is glorious and led to his departure from the critical world of Twitter/X.

Lichtman oozes pretentiousness. Cen Uygur, a smart populist leftist, eviscerates him and Lichtman goes nuts. But how he goes nuts shows exactly why the establishment is crumbling. 

Blasphemy! As if Lichtman is a god because he is a professor and has written books. Cenk is just a political commentator!

In fact, Lichtman blames Americans for being too dumb to follow his keys, rather than himself for completely misunderstanding what Americans thought. 

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Lichtman is departing Twitter/X for Bluesky, the liberal bubble Twitter/X mirror app, so he can avoid the hoi polloi. This is exactly what the establishment is doing to itself. The more encased in a bubble, the more the transnational elite openly expresses its contempt for the real world, the less they will be able to influence it. 

Censorship, coercion, and totalitarian repression has become necessary to maintain the elite’s power because their ability to understand and persuade ordinary people is fading. 

Nobody cares that you are a professor. In fact, it is a strike against you. 

We aren’t heretics; the elite are false gods. 

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