Ukraine update: All unquiet on the eastern front

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Two days into what Ukrainian officials have officially labeled “the Battle of Donbas,” there are reports everywhere … though what they mean is difficult to interpret.

Good

Near Izyum, where Russian forces have been gathering over the last two weeks, and which was expected to be the northern end of a north-south pincer movement, Ukrainian forces have reportedly advanced from the west, retaking some of the small villages on the outskirts of the city. A similar story is coming from Mariink, a suburb of Donetsk, where Ukrainian forces have driven Russian troops from an area of the town they formally occupied.

Reports also continue to come out of Popanas and Rubizhne that a number of attempted Russian advances have been repulsed. Reports indicate that a number of vehicles have been damaged and drones shot down in these failed attempts.

The U.S. reportedly will deliver seven additional planeloads of weapons to Ukraine within the next day, with getting artillery systems to the front lines a high priority.

Bad

Ukrainian forces have retreated from the town of Kreminna, stating that it offered a poor defensive position. Russian forces have reportedly occupied the town and Russian armored vehicles have moved rapidly to the west to at least partially occupy the town of Zarichne. These locations could potentially position Russia to push further west, so that—should those forces in Izyum actually move south—Slavyansk could portentially come under attack from multiple directions. Or Russia could move south from Kreminna with the intention of cutting off Rubizhne. In any case, word that Russia has taken any location is never good, even though this seems to have happened more as the result of Ukraine repositioning its forces rather than direct conflict.

In Mariupol, Russian forces continue to compress the area in which the approximately 1,000 remaining Ukrainian fighters are located. During the day on Tuesday, Russian forces captured what could be the last armored vehicles in control of the Ukrainian forces, as the troops retreated further into the maze of the Azovstal metal works. However, so far there doesn’t seem to be any sign that Russia is repositioning the forces they’ve held in Mariupol as they continue efforts to bomb Ukrainian resistance from its last stronghold.

Russia continues heavy shelling at locations all along the boundary of the area under their control. 

Medium

Near Kherson, Ukrainian forces are apparently advancing, but reports indicate that Russian troops have heavily mined the roads inside and outside the city. This is greatly slowing the Ukrainian advance, and attempts to remove mines will under enemy fire are always extremely difficult.

In a Pentagon briefing, U.S. officials indicated that they believe Russia’s efforts in the Donbas are concentrated at Izyum and at Donetsk. An additional two Battalion Tactical Groups reportedly entered Ukraine within the last day, and Russia is reportedly staging air support for the region out of both western Russian and eastern Belarus.

After days of near stasis, there does seem to be genuine movement, and we’re likely seeing the maximum exertion from Russia as they try to turn their isolated actions into something that approximates a coordinated effort. Why they are choosing to do this at this time, when the weather still restricts movements, likely results from political pressure to get something accomplished by May 9 than it does any change in conditions on the ground.