Ukraine update: Gearing up for a showdown in Kherson

This post was originally published on this site

In the first few days after Russia’s invasion, the bridge on the north side of Kherson became famous as a sign of Ukrainian resistance. Recognizing the importance of that bridge to one of Russia’s strategic objectives—capturing Mykolaiv and Odesa—Russian forces had moved quickly to take the bridge in the first two days of fighting. But then Ukrainian forces took it back. Then Russia seemed to have control. Then Ukraine took it again. 

It started to look as if Kherson might use the natural defense of the wide Dnieper River to hold out indefinitely. If things got tough, they could always blow up the critical bridge, greatly complicating Russia’s advance and forcing them to move north to fight again for the bridge at Nova Kakhovka.

Then, suddenly, Ukrainian forces were gone. Russia rolled into Kherson, bridge intact, while the troops that had fought over, and twice retaken, that bridge moved completely out of the city and hurried up the M14 highway to Mykolaiv. Russia had the city. And the bridge. One day later, they also had the Nova Kakhova bridge 40 miles upstream.

With these two wide crossings in hand, Russia was ready to move westward and complete the task of cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea. In Odesa, mass evacuations began as citizens feared the Russians would roll into the city in a matter of days.

Exactly what happened in Kherson still isn’t clear. How did the Russian military suddenly gain such a decisive upper hand, and why did forces that had been fighting them so successfully suddenly abandon not just the bridge, but the entire city? The answer seems to be: Treason. Officials there were apparently on the Russian bribery dole for years, and unlike officials in other areas of Ukraine, they stayed bribed even after the tanks rolled. As a result, those officials systematically undermined the local territorial defense and refused to provide assistance to troops fighting to hold the city. Those officials ultimately fled the city—possibly running into the open arms of the Russian forces to hand them more information. The details won’t be known until the conflict is over, but betrayal certainly seems to be at the core of how Russia established a beachhead on the west side of the Dnieper.

In the days after Russia took Kherson, the fears of citizens in Odesa seemed justified. Russian troops consolidated their position, captured an 80 mile long swath of territory on the western bank, and began to move toward Mykolaiv from two directions—directly up the M14 from Kherson, and from the east along a smaller highway from Snihurivka. 

And that’s where things got less happy for Team Russia. Having fallen back on Mykolaiv, Ukrainian troops joined up with other forces and territorial defenses that were already in place in that city. They repulsed repeated attempts by Russia to capture Mykolaiv. When Russia attempted to set up artillery positions around the city, Ukrainian forces managed to sally out and attack those positions, preventing Mykolaiv from becoming besieged. It didn’t hurt that Mykolaiv sits on a peninsula jutting far out into the wide-as-hell Southern Bug River. That essentially means it can only be attacked from one side. If you were going to design a fortress town to withstand an assault, it would be hard to do better than Mykolaiv. 

Here, take a look.

Getting a force into Mykolaiv and across it’s crucial bridge means moving through that narrow choke point on the city’s eastern side, then pushing through the entire city center, to reach the possibly still intact bridge. Russia didn’t come close to making it. Instead, it exhausted its forces in one attempt after another to approach the city from the south or east. Russia brought in large numbers of helicopters and planes, positioning them at the Kherson airport just 20 miles to the south. If there was anywhere that Russia had something like decent air support, this was the place.

It still did not allow them to advance through Mykolaiv’s defenses. It’s also likely that those hold-out forces at Mariupol prevented Russia from moving all the forces they wanted to place on the western edge of the advance.

Instead, only a week after being pushed back, Ukrainian forces had begun to range out of Mykolaiv and take back towns and villages along the roads south and southeast of the city. Gradually, they rolled back Russia’s hard-won advances. On March 15, they had advanced far enough to land an artillery barrage on Kherson airport. That not only destroyed a large number of Russian helicopters in place, it forced Russia to move the remainder to a more distant location.

From that moment, Russia’s attempt to capture Odesa by land was likely done. And since multiple attempts to conduct an amphibious landing had already proved futile, the push back from Mykolaiv likely ended any chance of Russia achieving one of its primary strategic objectives. At least in this round.

Since then, Ukrainian forces have been moving from place to place in the area. On Tuesday of last week, Ukraine managed to retake a number of locations at the northeast side of the area Russia had occupied above the Nova Kakhovka bridge. Surprisingly, Russian forces responded by moving back into Snihurivka, which gave the appearance of a fresh advance on Mykolaiv, but may have actually been Russian troops falling back from positions to the north.

For a few days, things seemed to go quiet. That was until Friday, when there were signs of fighting on the south side of Kherson proper. Civilians in the center of the city reported that they could clearly hear explosions and gunfire. There have also been widespread reports of Russians looting and loading up vehicles with consumer goods, which many see as a sign they are about to get the hell outta Dodge.

Before dawn on Saturday in Ukraine, rumors began to circulate that a big action is about to take place. The suggestion here is that the battle in the south isn’t over after all. Ukrainian forces may be more focused on taking Kherson—which remains the only large urban area captured by Russia since the war began, and where over 250,000 Ukrainian citizens are thought to remain — but Russia may have another goal.

Russia may respond by blowing the bridge at Kherson (there have been images showing that Russia has mined the bridge in preparation for taking it down). This would limit any effort to pursue Russian forces across the Dnieper, because this, like the Bug, is a very wide river at the southern end.

That would leave the bridge at Nova Kakhovka. If Ukraine could move quickly toward that bridge from north and south, they could potentially cut off a large Russian force, stranding them on the west side of the river. On the other hand, there are suggestions that Russia intends to press more troops across the river at that point, resuming the attempt on Mykolaiv from the east. Which … good luck on that. See map above.

As of early on Saturday, the battle for Kherson appears to be underway with Ukrainian forces moving toward the southern part of the city both along the M14 from Mykolaiv, and by pushing along the river bank up the narrower T1501. 

This still places a significant distance (about 15 miles, depending on the route) between Ukrainian forces and the Kherson bridge. In between, the Ukrainians have to do what Russia has found so difficult—capture a city center. And Ukraine will likely make this attempt without even thoughts of using artillery or MLRS systems that would have to be aimed into their own city. If Russia contests Kherson, the fight could get extremely difficult, and the city could face a level of destruction that has so far been avoided, with fighting vehicles and tanks duking it out in the streets.

But it’s not clear Russia will contest the city. The Ukrainian military has stated they expect the city to be captured “within days,” so expect an advance, but don’t expect a lightning advance. The presence of those Russian troops around Snihurivka and the suggestion that more forces could move across the Nova Kakhovka bridge to join them, certainly means that some Ukrainian forces are still in place around Mykolaiv to guard against a move on the city. There hasn’t been any news over the last few days about Ukraine recapturing more towns or villages on the north of the western bank “bulge,” so those troops may have moved into defensive positions. Or they could be preparing an advance to the south. We don’t know.

But if Ukraine can recapture Kherson, it will mean that Russia has lost the only city it managed to take, and that one came more through treachery than military prowess. If Russia blows the bridge, those forces at Kherson won’t be able to cross to attack forces north of the Crimea, and they won’t be able to restore the lock and dam that could limit water to the Crimea, which has been critical in restricting Russian development there. But if Russia blows that bridge, the Ukrainian forces in Kherson simply won’t stay in Kherson, because there will be no point.

They’ll move somewhere else, and continue the fight.