Ukraine update: Mariupol gave its all, but now it needs a miracle

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On Wednesday, Russian officials reported that over 1,000 Ukrainian marines belonging to the 36th Brigade had surrendered in the besieged city of Mariupol. Reuters reports that these Ukrainian forces had been in the Azovstal industrial district, one of three much-reduced pockets of resistance remaining inside the battered remains of what was once a city of almost half a million people. If this area is captured, there may be no large organized force remaining to oppose Russian control of the city.

This report may be false. The number of Ukrainian forces surrendering is almost certainly exaggerated. However, there have been other surrenders in the area in the last week, along with messages indicating that surviving forces were low on food, supplies, and ammunition. Cut off from resupply, battered by weeks of constant shelling, and hectored by Russian forces now entering the rubble with armor, there’s legitimately not much more that Ukrainian forces in Mariupol can do, barring a miracle.

Almost since the beginning of the Russian invasion, we’ve been writing about the situation in Mariupol. Russia desperately wants to take the city as part of a land bridge between the Donbas region and Crimea, and thanks to its location, Russia is able to mount immense force against Mariupol. Nearly surrounded by the second day of the war, a combination of territorial defense, fighters from the far-right Azov battalion, and regular Ukrainian military have waged a fierce resistance even as Russia shelled, bombed, and directed missiles into the city. Every single hospital in Mariupol was bombed. So were major shelters, like the opera house that Russia bombed in spite of—or because of—a sign indicating that there were children inside. We’ve come back to Mariupol again, and again, and again, both because of the strategic importance of the city and because of the genuine horrors happening there.

As kos covered last week, Ukraine was apparently slipping supplies to Mariupol in an amazing way: using helicopters to swing around above the Sea of Azov, then landing at a remote location on the outskirts of the city. In that way ammo kept coming in and the wounded were carried safely away. However, the reason the report came out when it did was that Russia had discovered this secret supply route and brought down two Ukrainian helicopters. 

Without that stream of supplies, it seems that some units have quickly come to the end of their rope. Several hundred Ukrainian marines surrendered last week in a report that Ukraine first disputed, but which turned out to be true. Now it seems even more may have laid down arms.

Still, there are a few reasons why this still isn’t over. Reports of locations of engagements between Ukrainian forces and Russian invaders over the last week show that the Ukrainian forces were still able to move relatively freely around large areas of the city and contest even more. And if the large group of marines did surrender, that doesn’t seem to include other members of the 36th Marine brigade, who first announced that they had no choice but surrender because they were on their last legs, but then managed to fight their way through a Russian cordon within the city to join the Azov fighters.

How can we be sure this isn’t the same group? If Russia had captured the Azov fighters, they would definitely be talking about it. On Tuesday, Ukraine War Maps (@War_Mapper) reported that Ukrainian control in Mariupol remained in three areas. 

Based on the site of the reported surrender on Wednesday and the site of reported Azov attacks over the last week, it’s possible to deduce that the Azov fighters are primarily operating in that southwest area, while the 36th Brigade was mostly to their east. Looking at the situation from a satellite view, it gives a sense of where these forces are located.

Based on the reported site of the surrender (the red triangle on the right) and the GPS location of recent Azov activity (blue stars on left), it can be theorized that some elements of the 36th Brigade fought their way across that roughly 2-mile gap between the area of Ukrainian control in the southeast to that area where Azov forces have been fighting in the southwest. This area, as well as the area in the north of the city, may still be controlled by forces loyal to Ukraine. However, if the surrender reports are accurate, Russia may now hold the city east of the Kal’mius River (though scattered fighting should be expected everywhere in Mariupol).

These areas of Ukrainian control are still large areas. They’re measured in miles, not blocks. So despite Russian proclamations, it seems unlikely that Mariupol will be entirely within their hands real soon now. However, it can be expected that all the Ukrainian forces in the city are suffering the same problems: lack of supplies, lack of food, lack of ammo, and plain exhaustion. Without a change in that situation, whatever Ukrainian forces remain in Mariupol can’t be expected to be there forever.

Meanwhile, horrible rumors and claims continue to circulate about the fate of civilians in the city. Russia has admitted to taking thousands to “filtration” camps inside Russia, where some former Mariupol residents have been forced to record propaganda videos thanking the Russian forces for saving them from a city that was peaceful and growing two months ago.

The mayor of Mariupol indicates that there are still as many as 120,000 people inside the city, trapped among the ruins and the rubble. The mayor indicates that as many as 20,000 people may have already been killed. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Defense reports that Russia wants to get the capture of Mariupol over with so that Russians can hold a parade there on May 9.

And this claim keeps popping up. 

To be clear, images of a supposed mobile crematorium in Mariupol that have circulated on social media appear to be taken from a video that’s at least eight years old. That doesn’t mean the story of these mobile crematoriums isn’t true, but it certainly means that the images are false and the whole story is suspect. Despite claims that have continued since the beginning of the invasion, there doesn’t seem to be visual evidence of these units being deployed in Mariupol, or anywhere else at this point. Let’s hope it stays that way, but considering what’s already been seen in Bucha and elsewhere, it’s all too easy to believe.

Right now, Mariupol needs a miracle. What shape that might take is hard to imagine. But hopefully someone has a plan that isn’t a Russian parade.