Ukraine update: Russia using 'depleted & desperate' units, still can't coordinate forces
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Friday was most notable in eastern Ukraine for the sheer lack of Russian attacks. Whether this was a result of the cascade of incoming overall commanders (Here comes Dvornikov! Here comes Gerasimov! Wait, here comes Putin!), a matter of being out of some sort of supplies (noticed all those burning ammo dumps lately?), or just giving the guys a break after weeks of throwing themselves on swords each day (which sounds very un-Russian), very little forward progress was even attempted.
Though artillery shelling of Ukrainian towns and villages continued Friday, it was hard to find any evidence of a genuine attempt at an advance. Anywhere. The result was daily summaries that contained the phrase “no change on the ground” in area after area. Only north of Kharkiv, where Ukrainian forces are slowly pushing Russian troops back from a series of villages just a few miles from the Russian border, was there any measurable change.
In their own daily update of the situation, the U.K. Ministry of Defense had something to say about the status of Russian troops. In their evaluation, Russia had been forced to redeploy troops who were “depleted and desperate” after their experience in the failed Battle of Kyiv. Those troops have now been pushed into the Donbas, often as part of patchwork units formed from the fragments of BTGs that remained after losses in the north. They’ve brought with them fear, exhaustion, and a big feeling of just being done-with-this.
The U.K. also noted that, despite the much shorter supply lines in the east—after all this whole area is not just adjacent to Russia, but to areas Russia has controlled for eight years—that doesn’t seem to have translated into more reliable supplies at the front line. Ukrainian attacks on supply locations and fuel depots may have played some role in that failure, but whatever the cause, Russia still isn’t getting ammo, fuel, and even food to the places where they are needed.
Russia is also still having issues with coordinating troops. That’s in spite of placing the focus of the war in a smaller area and piling on all that top brass. All those attacks that have been happening are still attacks by just one or two tactical groups.
Something unusual was reported on Friday night—an attempted night attack by Russian forces. Throughout the war, Russian forces have been completely lacking in night vision equipment. With NATO donations of exactly that kind of gear to Ukraine, attempting to move forces at night is something that Russia has rarely dared. However, updated tanks and othered armored vehicles often have their own built-in thermal or low-light vision system. So it seems that Russia did make a push Friday night along the line north of Popasna. It went this well:
Oh, and on Friday, Russia continued to bomb the fighters and civilians holding out in the Azovstal plant in Mariupol. It seems they can always find the energy for that.
The information on these images also indicates a time early on Saturday morning in Ukraine, but this seems to be a different location from the other vehicles that were reportedly lost in a night assault.
Did Russia conduct multiple “let’s see if it works better in the dark” probes on Friday night? Hard to tell. This equipment could have been sitting around for days and Saturday morning was just when the pics were snapped. Or this could have been another part of the same attack.
This tank may have been part of the same attack as the BMPs pictured above.