Ukraine update: Spring rains are coming, as Russia is increasingly desperate to show progress

This post was originally published on this site

I picked a good week to go on vacation, as Russia’s defeat at the Battle of Kyiv (and the Battles of Chernihiv and Sumy as well) led to the mass Russian withdrawal from Ukraine’s north over the past week. The horrors they left behind are beyond comprehension, though the Russians may have their own solution to the “problem” of their war-crime’ing rampaging hordes:

[A]n unconfirmed Ukrainian military intelligence report suggests that Moscow could soon send the 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 35th Combined Arms Army, a unit that reportedly committed war crimes in Bucha, into the fight in eastern Ukraine in the hopes that guilty members of that brigade and witnesses of its war crimes are killed in combat with Ukrainian forces

If only this single unit was guilty of all the war crimes. It wasn’t the 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade that bombed hospitals, schools, residential buildings, and other residential non-combat targets in cities around Ukraine. And it’s certainly not the 64th Motorized Rifle Brigade that has turned all of Mariupol into rubble. 

There has been much speculation over the last several few days over the fate of those Russian units previously operating near Kyiv. We know that units in the Sumy and Kherson areas have been redeployed toward Izyum, including the remnants of the famed 4th Guards Tank Division (GTD). In fact, if you’re thinking, “I thought half the division was wiped out,” because that’s what I speculated when last writing about them, turns out I was wrong. They’re likely closer to around 40% of their pre-war strength. Russia is throwing the tattered remnants of once-proud units into the meat grinder. 

As for those Kyiv-area units, the humane thing would be to disband what’s left and send those soldiers home. Or, at worse, give them a month to recover as their units are rebuilt from reserves. We saw what they left behind after their withdrawal, and by all indications, most of those units are combat ineffective. As the Brits put it, “Russian units that left Kyiv will need significant re-equipping before redeploying to the Donbas.” But what they need and what Russian high command will do are two different things, and the Pentagon estimates that two-thirds of those forces will be redeployed to the Donbas front. In short, this is an act of desperation:

Those forces are broken. And they’re being sent into combat just as intense, if not more so, than what they saw around Kyiv. 

At least in Kyiv they were somewhat protected by 1) Ukraine’s defensive posture, and 2) natural river barriers. Yes, they bled and died from repeated ineffective charge after repeated ineffective charge, but it was Ukraine that was in desperate plight, under relentless artillery bombardment and assault. It wasn’t until very recently that they began to face Ukrainian counter-attacks. In Donbas, they face not only the same entrenched enemy, with the same incompetent leadership that will march them to their likely deaths, but also exposed flanks and an aggressive Ukraine able to confidently counter-attack, heavy Ukrainian artillery, and a new generation of battlefield weapons on their way (like Switchblade killer drones). Oh, and they get to do it with poorly maintained equipment from pilfered reserve stock. 

Don’t count on Russia’s logistics to get any better, as Ukraine is still doing a great job of taking them out en masse. 

(Note the Ukrainian tractor in the upper right, circling in toward the chum.)

Remember all those pictures of trashed supply lines attempting to run through Sumy region to eastern edge of Kyiv? Well, we’re about to see it all over again, as Russia really appears to be attempting the maneuver I mocked just a few days ago: 

Instead of a head-on assault on the cities of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, they are attempting to loop around and cut them off, over hundreds of kilometers of terrain with exposed flanks on both sides. As I wrote: 

Attempting such an exposed push over barren open terrain, through 160 kilometers (100 miles) of hostile territory seems suicidal. That hasn’t stopped Russia before, but it does seem they are trying to reset. Four axes of attack were too much? Okay! Let’s go down to two! Hmmm, I wanted to come up with two more examples, but I’ve got nothing. Maybe “avoid long unsustainable and indefensible supply lines” can be added to the list.

Doesn’t look like we’ll be adding anything to the “Russia learned its lesson” list anytime soon. Here we are now, with Russia behaving … suicidal:

That emerging salient heading south, attempting to cut off dug-in Ukrainian positions, is going to get chewed up like this: 

That moonscape open terrain (more good pictures here and here) makes it impossible for Russia to sneak up on anyone, anywhere, and will be a drone operator’s dream come true. Ukrainian artillery can safely operate west of the salient, shooting and scooting, protected by Russia’s fear of flying their planes anywhere covered by air defenses. 

Meanwhile, rasputista, that famous Ukrainian mud, is about to show up in a big way. Mud has already had a major impact on the war, as the mild winter kept the ground from being frozen as might’ve been the case pre-climate change. But things are about to get even tougher for armor. Look at the coming forecast for the Izyum area: 

Not only are those surprisingly warm temperatures melting off the last of the winter snow, but the spring rains are coming. Expect to see a lot more of this:

Rain will make field maneuvering nearly impossible, restricting Russian armor to roads, making them easy pickings for Ukrainian ambushes, artillery attacks, and drone strikes. On the plus side, it gives any Russian wanting an easy out a clear way to walk away from the war. “Abandoned” Russian equipment is the best Russian equipment. No one dies, Ukraine gets additional equipment and ammunition for its army, and we get to cheer the farmers towing that stuff away.

Note that the rain can be a double-edged sword, restricting Ukraine’s ability to counterattack. So we may be entering a period where nothing much moves, except relentless artillery and air strikes from both sides, trying to degrade static, well-defended positions. 

In other words, we’ll be back to what the Donbas front looked like since 2014, except with a bit more territory under Russian control. Has that been worth 20,000 dead, billions in lost equipment, economic devastation, and the international shattering of the Russian bear myth? No matter what Vladimir Putin and his propagandists at home and in the West might say, a stalemate in a region they already controlled is a devastating loss. And desperation to show any progress is clearly leading to stupid decisions, like trying to encircle Sloviansk and Kramatorsk from the west.