Morning Digest: Trump pick for Nebraska governor attacks woman who accused him of assault in new ad

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The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

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Leading Off

● NE-Gov: With less than two weeks to go before Nebraska’s Republican primary for governor, self-funding businessman Charles Herbster is running a TV ad that takes the remarkable tack of directly attacking one of the eight women who’ve accused him of sexual battery, state Sen. Julie Slama, claiming her allegations are part of a scheme orchestrated by a rival candidate, Jim Pillen, and termed-out Gov. Pete Ricketts.

Just last week, Herbster sued Slama for defamation, to which Slama, who’s not on the ballot this year, responded with a counterclaim seeking damages for sexual assault. Her attorney responded to the new ad by saying, “​​Charles Herbster is solely responsible for the harm he inflicted against Senator Slama, and he will answer for it in court.”

Herbster’s female narrator begins by charging that Pillen and Ricketts are telling the same sort of lies that, she claims, were also leveled at Supreme Court Justices Clarence Thomas and Brett Kavanaugh. The spot, which doesn’t mention Slama by name but instead refers to her as “Herbster’s accuser,” says Slama, as well as her husband and sister, received jobs from Ricketts. The voiceover adds that “even after the supposed incident, she kept contacting Herbster” and says Slama “even invited Herbster to her destination wedding.” Pillen’s attacks, the spot concludes, are “built on lies.”

The commercial does not, of course, mention any of the allegations leveled against Herbster by not just Slama but also seven other women, all of whom went unnamed out of fear of retaliation when they spoke with the Nebraska Examiner. All accused him of groping and other forms of sexual assault in incidents from 2017 through this year.

After the explosive report came out, Ricketts denied he had anything to do with the allegations against Herbster, telling Politico that it’s “ridiculous to think that somebody could coordinate eight different people to talk to a reporter about this.” Slama, who has accused Herbster of reaching up her skirt at a 2019 event, has said that the online wedding invitation Herbster is now highlighting was sent to him accidentally, adding that she hadn’t even been aware of the mistake until he RSVPed.

Herbster’s ad comes just before Donald Trump is set to hold a rally for him on Friday outside of Omaha. Trump, Politico writes, responded earlier this month to the allegations against Herbster by “relay[ing] word that Herbster wasn’t fighting back hard enough, backing plans for Herbster to hold a press conference aggressively denying the allegations and pushing back at his adversaries”—advice Herbster, much like Kavanaugh, evidently took to heart. A recent poll found Herbster locked in a close May 10 primary against Pillen and state Sen. Brett Lindstrom.

Senate

● OH-Sen: The USA Freedom Fund PAC, which is aligned with the Club for Growth and supports state Treasurer Josh Mandel in Tuesday’s GOP primary, is airing a new TV ad where they go after venture capitalist J.D. Vance for saying in February right before Russia invaded Ukraine, “I don’t really care what happens to Ukraine one way or another,” calling it a betrayal to the thousands of Ukranian Americans in Ohio. The narrator also uses Vance’s bestselling memoir about growing up in Ohio, Hillbilly Elegy, to bash him as a liberal elite for “trashing Ohioans as hillbillies” and selling his story to Hollywood.

Governors

● AZ-Gov: Former Democratic state Rep. Aaron Lieberman has put $562,000 behind his debut ad ahead of the August primary, which features the candidate speaking next to a literal dumpster fire as a metaphor for the state of the race. Lieberman berates GOP frontrunner Kari Lake for appearing at rallies with neo-Nazi sympathizers and castigates Democratic Secretary of State Katie Hobbs for having been “found guilty of racial discrimination” by two federal juries, which Lieberman follows by pledging to focus on solving problems such as fixing schools and creating jobs as he uses a fire extinguisher to put out the blaze.

Lieberman’s claim against Hobbs references a matter from last decade when Hobbs led Democrats in the state Senate, which involved a Black woman named Talonya Adams who claimed that she was fired from her position as a Senate staffer in 2015 after complaining about being paid less than her white male colleagues. After a 2019 verdict in favor of Adams had been tossed out, a jury last year awarded Adams $2.75 million in damages, which a judge later reduced to $300,000 plus back pay.

Hobbs wasn’t a defendant in Adams’ lawsuit, though she had testified that she had been part of the group that fired Adams after it lost “trust and confidence” in her, but her campaign had defended Hobbs in response to the verdict by pointing out that “the Republican majority chief of staff acted as … the ultimate decision-maker regarding the termination” of Adams’ employment. While Hobbs had offered an initial apology after the 2019 verdict, she extensively apologized in a statement late last year that acknowledged the discrimination against Adams and conceded that her initial response to last year’s verdict was “unnecessarily defensive” and “fell short of taking real accountability.”

This matter has proved divisive for Hobbs, who started off the race as the frontrunner, and it led to some prominent Black leaders in the state calling on voters not to support her. However, Hobbs retains the support of other influential groups, and she continued to lead her primary rivals in first quarter fundraising. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how the ordeal will affect her standing with Democratic primary voters.

● GA-Gov: The conservative firm Guidant Polling and Strategy has released a survey on behalf of a group called the Georgia Leadership Coalition that looks at the May 24 GOP primary and finds Gov. Brian Kemp holding a huge 57-31 lead over former Sen. David Perdue. This release follows on the heels of a few other pollsters similarly finding Kemp solidifying his long-running advantage and surpassing the 50% threshold needed to avoid a June runoff.

Meanwhile, a federal judge on Thursday ruled that Kemp’s allies at Georgians First Leadership Committee, which is not subject to contribution limits, cannot raise money unless and until Kemp wins the Republican nomination; there is no word yet if the governor will appeal. The same judge said back in February that Georgians First could not continue to air ads to help Kemp in his nomination fight against former Sen. David Perdue because Perdue and other non-incumbents cannot create their own leadership committees unless and until they win their primary.

● HI-Gov, HI-02: Punchbowl News reported Thursday that freshman Rep. Kai Kahele has told senior Democrats that he’ll run for governor rather than seek re-election to the House. Kahele, who has drawn negative attention in recent weeks for casting numerous proxy votes from outside D.C., declined to comment when asked.

The Democratic nomination contest to succeed Kahele back home in Hawaii’s 2nd Congressional District, which Biden would have carried 64-34, was getting underway before this news broke, though. Former state Sen. Jill Tokuda, who had been waging a second bid for lieutenant governor four years after narrowly losing that primary, announced Wednesday that she was now running for Congress.

Honolulu City Council Chair Tommy Waters also filed fundraising paperwork earlier in the week, though he didn’t commit to anything: Waters instead said, “I am still strongly considering running should the seat be open.” State Rep. Pat Branco expressed interested in a campaign ​for an open seat as well earlier in the month, and more names will almost certainly surface should Kahele confirm his plans. Hawaii’s filing deadline is in early June, later than all but five other states, and the primary will be in August.

About 40% of the 2nd District, which was barely altered by redistricting, is located in Honolulu, the state’s capital and by far its largest community. The remainder of the constituency is made up of Hawaii’s more rural Neighbor Islands, the term for every island apart from Honolulu’s Oahu. Kahele, who lives on the island of Hawaii (nicknamed the Big Island), is the state’s first member of Congress from one of the Neighbor Islands.

● IL-Gov: The Democratic Governors Association has reportedly now spent a total of $3.5 million here, which has included ads opposing Aurora Mayor Richard Irvin in the June Republican primary.

● NM-Gov: Just two days after state Rep. Rebecca Dow released the first negative ad in the June Republican primary by labeling former TV news meteorologist Mark Ronchetti a “Never Trumper,” Ronchetti fired back with his own spot criticizing Dow. Ignoring her charges against him, Ronchetti calls Dow a phony for her tough talk on immigration, citing roll call votes to claim she voted for two bills to give stimulus checks and job licenses to undocumented immigrants.

● NV-Gov: Donald Trump has endorsed Clark County Sheriff Joe Lombardo in the crowded June Republican primary to take on Democratic Gov. Steve Sisolak. Lombardo, unlike some of the other candidates Trump has backed, was arguably already the favorite to advance, as he both ended March with a wide cash-on-hand edge over the rest of the GOP field and posted leads in the only two polls we’ve seen in months.

● OH-Gov: Former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley has received an endorsement from Rep. Joyce Beatty, who represents a very blue seat based around Columbus, days ahead of Tuesday’s Democratic primary.

House

● GA-07: The state AFL-CIO has backed Rep. Lucy McBath in her May 24 Democratic primary battle against fellow Rep. Carolyn Bourdeaux.

● IL-17: Rockford Alderman Jonathan Logemann has earned an endorsement from the state AFL-CIO ahead of the crowded June Democratic primary for this open seat.

● KY-03: The crypto industry-aligned Protect Our Future PAC has dropped a hefty $972,000 in support of state Senate Minority Leader Morgan McGarvey ahead of the May 17 primary to succeed his fellow Democrat, retiring incumbent John Yarmuth, in this Louisville district. McGarvey, who has Yarmuth’s endorsement, already had a huge resource advantage over his one intra-party rival, state Rep. Attica Scott, even before the PAC came to his aid: McGarvey finished March with a $952,000 to $26,000 cash-on-hand lead, and no outside groups have spent on Scott’s behalf yet.

● NY-01: New York State United Teachers, which is affiliated with the American Federation of Teachers and National Education Association, has endorsed Jackie Gordon, who was the 2020 Democratic nominee for the old 2nd District.

● NC-04: The Huffington Post reports that AIPAC’s United Democracy Project is spending $720,000 to boost state Sen. Valerie Foushee in the May 17 Democratic primary, which is considerably more than the $294,000 amount that we’d previously seen. Foushee, as we wrote earlier in the week, is also benefiting from $861,000 in support from Protect Our Future PAC, a group funded by crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried. The only outside support that Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam has received, by contrast, is $139,000 in get-out-the-vote aid from the Working Families Party, while no major groups have spent yet on behalf of singer Clay Aiken.

● NC-11: GOPAC, a Republican super PAC that says it hasn’t endorsed anyone in this race, is out with a survey from Differentiators Data that shows freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn leading state Sen. Chuck Edwards 38-21 in next month’s Republican primary. That’s a notable drop from the 49-14 edge Cawthorn enjoyed in a previously unreleased March survey from the firm, but it’s still above the 30% mark that the incumbent would need to clear in order to avert a July runoff. The only other poll we’ve seen is a March internal for Edwards that found him trailing 52-20.

● OH-09: State Rep. Craig Riedel and state Sen. Theresa Gavarone are each running new commercials ahead of the Tuesday Republican primary to face longtime Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur, though considerably more viewers may see the former’s messaging. That’s because AdImpact, per NBC, says that Riedel has outspent Gavarone $290,000 to $43,000 on ads.

Riedel begins his spot with a narrator asking, “What’s worse than the radical left and their destructive agenda? Weak, spineless RINOs who play right into their hands.” That second bit is accompanied with a graphic of Gavarone along with Mitt Romney, Liz Cheney, and Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger, though the narrator never explains why the state senator should be linked with three of Trumpworld’s most hated Republicans. The rest of the ad argues Riedel is an ardent conservative who will “protect election integrity” and stands “with President Trump all, not just some, of the time.”

Gavarone, by contrast, turns to 5th District Rep. Bob Latta, who represents just over half of the newly gerrymandered 9th District, in her spot. Latta tells the audience that “conservative leaders know we need” Gavarone to join his fight against Democrats and commends her as the only candidate supported by Ohio Right to Life.

● TX-15: 314 Action has publicized a survey from GBAO that shows businesswoman Michelle Vallejo beating its endorsed candidate, Army veteran Ruben Ramirez, 49-37 in the May 24 Democratic primary runoff. The group almost certainly released those unfavorable numbers because the poll finds that Ramirez ultimately takes the lead after respondents hear about his progressive beliefs.

● CLF: The Congressional Leadership Fund, a major Republican super PAC with close ties to GOP leaders in the House, announced its first wave of fall TV ad reservations on Thursday, totaling $125 million. The move comes a month after its Democratic counterpart, the House Majority PAC, kicked off the 2022 cycle with $86 million in bookings.

The reservations cover 48 different media markets, comparable to HMP’s 45, and most overlap. The main exceptions are in Florida, New York, and Ohio, all states where HMP did not book any time on its initial list. One district CLF has set its sights on that HMP did not address, though, is Connecticut’s 5th, which is held by Democratic Rep. Jahanna Hayes and would have voted 55-44 for Joe Biden.

Conversely, CLF hasn’t secured any ad time in Georgia’s 2nd, a potentially vulnerable Democratic seat represented by Rep. Sanford Bishop that Biden also would have carried by a 55-44 margin. However, both of these super PACs will add to and adjust their reservations many times before Election Day, and they’ll be supplemented by bookings from the parties’ official campaign arms, the DCCC and NRCC.

As with HMP, CLF lists its reservations by market, since that’s how airtime is booked, so we’ve put together our best assessments as to the districts each reservation is targeted toward. As you’d expect, given the midterm environment, most are targeted toward Democratic seats. Note that many markets cover more than one potentially competitive House contest, such as Raleigh, North Carolina, which includes both the 1st and 13th Districts. Ultimately, we won’t know which races these funds will get used for until the money is actually spent—and just like a reservation at a restaurant, a booking for TV time can always be canceled.

Mayors

● Chicago, IL Mayor: Rep. Mike Quigley announced Thursday that he would not challenge his fellow Democrat, Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, in next year’s officially nonpartisan race. Lightfoot currently faces opposition from Alderman Ray Lopez and wealthy perennial candidate Willie Wilson.

Ad Roundup

Dollar amounts reflect the reported size of ad buys and may be larger.

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