Scientists sharing Omicron data were heroic. Let’s ensure they don’t regret it
This commitment to rapid data sharing has deep roots in genomics. At a 1996 summit in Bermuda, the leaders of the Human Genome Project established a set of principles to release a new DNA sequence to public databases within 24 hours. This approach departed from the established convention that experimental data only needed to be released when a study was published, months or years later. Sir John Sulston, founding director of the Wellcome Sanger Institute, said: “All of this [genome data] should be in the public domain… I think we need a public social welfare attitude to the use of this information.”
That attitude now prevails around the world, as evidenced by the rapid sharing of more than 1m Sars-CoV-2 sequences by the Sanger Institute since March 2020.
Even with a head start, it will take a couple of weeks to see where we are in this. Every reason for caution, and no reason to overdo anything (except politics).
COVID-19: Emergence of Omicron variant could be down to ‘reservoirs’ of virus in the unvaccinated and immunosuppressed
Barry Schoub, an expert from South Africa, says it is “logical” that the prevalence of HIV in the region is linked to the emergence of the new variant of the coronavirus. Speaking to Sky News, Prof Schoub also emphasises the links to unvaccinated people.
He said: “This virus is a plastic virus – in other words, it tends to mutate very readily.
“And under conditions where it is mutating – particularly in people who might be partially immunosuppressed, in other words where they’re not getting rid of the virus – that remnant virus which remains will be selectively enriched to escape immunity and to become more transmissible.
Since it’s too early to know about increased virulence or vaccine resistance (no evidence of either yet), there’s every reason to get vaccinated (the three shot series, so that means boosters).
WH on President’s in-person mtg on Omicron variant w/his COVID-19 response team & Dr Fauci who “informed the President that while it will take approximately 2 more weeks to have more definitive information on the transmissibility,severity,& other characteristics of the variant..”
It will take weeks to understand what these new mutations mean or, more importantly, the combination of so many mutations. Keep in mind that the number of mutations does NOT always equal more severe. While these important lab studies are under way, we can watch carefully what’s happening in the “real world”.
What we’re seeing in the real world?
Individual-level data
We know a lot about the Hong Kong cases because of their impeccable contact tracing. Health authorities published a report of these two cases yesterday.
The first case in Hong Kong was a 36 year old, fully vaccinated (two Pfizer doses in May/June 2021) male. He was traveling through South Africa from October 22 to November 11. Before returning to Hong Kong, he tested negative on a PCR. As per usual, once he landed in Hong Kong he was required to quarantine. On day 4 of quarantine (November 13), he tested positive on a PCR.
Another guest across the hallway was also infected with B.1.1.529. He was Pfizer vaccinated in May/June 2021 too. In both of these rooms, 25 out of 87 swabs were positive for the virus.
These Hong Kong cases tell us two things:
Confirms that COVID19 is airborne (we knew this)
During their PCR tests, the viral loads were VERY high considering they were negative on previous PCR tests. They had a Ct value of 18 and 19 value. So, this tell us that B.1.1.529 is likely highly contagious.
Republicans who prefer non-conservative media (i.e. not Fox, Newsmax, or OANN) are 4 times more likely to believe Biden was legitimately elected. They’re 32 points less likely to say supporting Trump is very impt to what it means to being a Republican. https://t.co/SPcYYqwd0L
What to know about the omicron variant of the coronavirus
Omicron has sparked alarm among epidemiologists worried the new variant’s mutations could make it more transmissible. Scientists are racing to learn more as new cases are confirmed.
There is too little research to draw conclusions, with experts urging caution but not panic. Studies are underway to examine how vaccines hold up against the new variant, with some experts expressing initial optimism that they will offer protection.
“This is the most concerning variant we’ve seen since delta,” Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute, said in an interview Friday. “It’s going to take a really high bar for something to take over for delta, and we don’t know whether this is going to do it.”
The world wants quick answers on #Omicron, the new #Covid variant of concern. And tons of research is already underway aimed at trying to assess the risk it poses. But the reality is, this work is going to take time. @DrewQJoseph explains. https://t.co/heq3sOfBW1
If you’ve seen (and see all of the above) every reputable expert say it’s too soon to know, well, that’s because it’s too soon to know. Our job is to convey the uncertainty.
Variants ‘haunt’ world with vaccine imbalance between rich and poor nations
In an opinion piece in the Guardian, former British prime minister Gordon Brown — now an ambassador with the World Health Organization — took aim at the developed world for failing to deliver donated doses it had promised.
“Despite the repeated warnings of health leaders, our failure to put vaccines into the arms of people in the developing world is now coming back to haunt us,” Brown wrote.
Hi from South Africa, birthplace of your newest Covid variant! I see hot takes that SA’s problem is we don’t have enough nice American vaccines. WE DO NOT HAVE A PROBLEM WITH VACCINE SUPPLY!!! We’re TURNING AWAY vax shipments. Our problem is FEAR of vaccines. Same as you. https://t.co/e3NTONwZJt
I can’t help but wonder if one of the reasons the pandemic isn’t over yet, is because contrarian doctors repeatedly said it was.
Earlier this summer, Dr. Harriet Hall received a “surprising email saying the pandemic has been over for months.” “Where did that idea come from?” she asked. Before I try to answer her question, let me revisit my own history with premature optimism in two prior articles on this site. June 4, 2021:
Barring a nasty variant, the worst is over for America and its children. Cases and deaths are falling. It’s beautiful. Thanks to vaccines and the virus itself, there’s enough immunity that COVID-19 will never overwhelm an American city again… However, COVID-19 is not gone, and it probably never will be. Vaccine uptake remains depressingly low in large swaths of the country. Millions of children have been vaccinated, but most are not and many never will be. COVID-19 remains nearly as dangerous as ever for the unvaccinated.
We will almost certainly never have months in a row where over 1,000 Americans die daily. Again with the caveat that a nasty variant could change everything, I am confident the worst is over for the US as a whole, at least for vaccinated people.
In these articles, I was careful to note that the virus remained as dangerous as ever for the unvaccinated and that new variants could change everything. Still, I was very wrong about some big things. Sadly, over 1,000 people a day have been dying in the USA for a while, and some cities were overwhelmed with COVID-19. Though my own optimistic predictions definitely don’t deserve an A+, I also don’t think anyone reading my articles would have concluded the pandemic was over. I certainly hope no one thought that.
The pandemic is over?
Having acknowledged my own flawed forecasts, let’s explore the origins of the myth that the pandemic is over. In preparation for this article, I put out a Twitter request for instances where people, specifically those with scientific credentials, declared the pandemic was over. I received several replies implicating COVID-19 denialists and minimizers of all sorts from around the world. Since I am an American doctor, I will focus my discussion on my country and my profession.
Because of the actions we’ve taken, in the past three weeks, the number of containers sitting on docks is down 33% — and shipping prices are down 25%. Goods are moving quicker out of our ports and onto doorsteps and store shelves.
If Merrick Garland Doesn’t Charge Trump and His Coup Plotters, Our Democracy Is Toast
I have been counseled by wise and respected friends, like former U.S. Attorney and Deputy Assistant Attorney General Harry Litman, that we should be grateful for the Bannon decision because it will empower the Congress to do its job. I understand the view. But this Congressional investigation has a clock running on it. If the GOP retakes the House next November, as many are currently predicting, the investigation into the Jan. 6 coup attempt will be instantly ended by the Republicans. So for all those called by the committee, it may appear that all they have to do to avoid suffering any consequences for their action is to stall just as Bannon is doing. In this case, justice delayed will most certainly be justice denied.
More troubling to me though is that the only reason we are hearing of any case being brought against Bannon as a senior coup plotter (or upper middle management in any case) is because Congress is investigating the events of Jan. 6. We have not heard a peep out of the Department of Justice about prosecuting those responsible for inciting, planning or funding the effort to undo the lawful transfer of presidential power to the man the American people elected, Joe Biden.
WHY HAVEN’T TRUMP AND HIS FAMILY BEEN PROSECUTED YET??????. Cause DoJ and State AGs are building cases they can’t lose. Statewide and Fed level prosecutors don’t indict unless it’s a slam dunk. You, as a Twitter and media consumer may think it’s airtight. They make sure it is.
How the $4 Trillion Flood of Covid Relief Is Funding the Future
From broadband to transportation to high-tech medical manufacturing, benefits from America’s pandemic money infusion will linger.
To date, the federal government has allocated $4.52 trillion in response to Covid-19 — a staggering figure, one that exceeds the entire federal budget in 2019. Most of that funding comes from just two bills: the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security, or CARES, Act, passed in March 2020 ($2.2 trillion), and the American Rescue Plan Act, or A.R.P., from March 2021 ($1.9 trillion). These bills covered a huge range of funding, much of it focused on short-term recovery: Together, they allocated more than $1 trillion in direct aid to Americans in economic need, including $464 billion for additional unemployment benefits and $695 billion for stimulus checks, and also allocated nearly $428 billion for programs to aid small businesses.
it’s a small thing. but it matters, to me at least. The first time (right?) that the vice president’s office is celebrating Hanukkah as a matter of religion and not just ceremony https://t.co/pwRqwWkxvd
