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As widely reported earlier this week, President-elect Joe Biden has chosen former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm to run the Department of Energy (DOE) and former Environmental Protection Administration Chief Gina McCarthy to run a new White House office on climate change. Both women have strong environmental records and can be expected to be assertive key figures in the Biden administration, which is making the climate crisis a top priority. Granholm must be confirmed by the Senate, but McCarthy does not. McCarthy will operate as a domestic counterpart to former Secretary of State John Kerry, who Biden picked to be the administration’s international envoy on climate policy. 

On Tuesday, Biden nominated Pete Buttigieg, the former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and former Democratic presidential candidate, to serve as secretary of Transportation, another department where climate will be at the forefront of policy changes as this sector of the economy becomes ever more electrified.

Granholm is no newcomer to promoting green energy, something she did as governor and has ever since. In 2016, she said the United States should be “doing everything we possibly can to keep fossil fuel energy in the ground and developing the renewable side.” She also confirmed the same year that she stood with the Standing Rock Sioux in their confrontational opposition to the Dakota Access Pipeline. “Yes, I do. We ought to be doing everything we possibly can to keep fossil fuel energy in the ground and developing the renewable side.”

Granholm’s experience with the auto industry as governor could be a major plus in the effort Biden has pledged to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Paul Bledsoe, who served as a climate adviser in the Clinton White House, told Lesley Clark at Energywire, “There’s nothing more central to that than Michigan and other industrial states. Her being in the administration makes a lot of sense; she has experience with this.”

With ever more coal-fired power plants being shuttered and replaced with renewable energy sources or natural gas, the transportation sector of the economy generates more carbon emissions than the power sector now, and the promise of putting millions of electric vehicles on the road makes the work of the Energy Department‘s research and development into advanced vehicles and batteries all the more important.

Granholm was formerly a policy chairwoman of the Democratic Governors Association, and her connections from that work could also help Biden with the states, said Dan Reicher, who worked as assistant DOE secretary for energy efficiency and renewable energy under President Clinton and on the energy transition teams for Clinton and President Obama.

“States are really important in energy and climate policy, from renewable energy standards to 50 state public utility commissions and energy efficiency programs,” Reicher said. “In an era where we’re likely to see more gridlock in Washington, D.C., we’re going to need state efforts even more, and someone who was a governor of a large and important state brings a lot to that.”

During the Obama administration, EPA Chief McCarthy took tremendous flak from Republicans during hearings on the Clean Power Plan and other policies that climate science deniers in Congress wanted to squelch in favor of fossil fuel business as usual. She just became president of the Natural Resources Defense Council in January and at first had turned down the White House offer. But the 66-year-old McCarthy is known for a tough fighting spirit and she wanted, sources told E&E News, to get back into the fight over climate policy. 

McCarthy has years of experience in environmental policy at both the state and federal level. At the EPA, she oversaw the development of Obama’s Clean Power Plan, designed to reduce carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants. That proposal was temporarily blocked by the U.S. Supreme Court, and then the Trump regime replaced it with a much weaker regulation. McCarthy was once a commissioner of the Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection and helped develop a regional program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Her new job will entail coordinating the federal government’s efforts to address climate change at the EPA and the departments of Interior, Agriculture, Transportation, Energy, and Treasury, as well as the Council of Economic Advisers and the National Economic Council.

“Every department in the Biden administration should be centering climate action and clean energy in their federal policies and investments,” McCarthy tweeted earlier this month. “And they should do it in a way that continues to advance labor interests and environmental justice in communities across the country.”

At Earth Justice, a nonprofit public interest environmental law organization, Jill Fitzsimmons said:

At this critical moment for our climate, we are thrilled that Gina McCarthy will take on this important leadership role in the Biden administration. As EPA administrator and at NRDC, she has been a powerful advocate for protecting public health and advancing climate action.

President-elect Biden understands that to tackle the climate crisis, we must mobilize every part of the federal government. McCarthy brings the experience, expertise, and commitment that is needed to implement his ambitious climate agenda. We look forward to continuing to work with her to advance climate solutions centered in justice and equity, and a pollution-free, 100% clean energy future for all.”

Collin Rees, senior campaigner at Oil Change U.S., said:

“Gina McCarthy is a proven climate advocate with the experience to hit the ground running and coordinate an all-of-government response to the climate crisis. She’s been a strong champion for fossil fuel divestment in recent years, and made clear that the fossil fuel era is coming to a close. And she has increasingly recognized the critical importance of environmental justice in climate policy, which should serve her well in this role in the Biden administration.

“Jennifer Granholm is an experienced leader with a strong record of support for renewable energy and opposition to the disastrous Keystone XL and Dakota Access oil pipelines. She understands the urgency of the climate crisis and the need to confront the fossil fuel industry, previously stating, ‘We ought to be doing everything we possibly can to keep fossil fuel energy in the ground and develop renewables.’

Not all environmental groups are gung-ho for McCarthy. At the Center for Biological Diversity, for instance:

“McCarthy’s No. 1 job as climate coordinator is to make sure the entire federal government takes bold, urgent action to confront the climate crisis. Unfortunately, during McCarthy’s tenure at the EPA, she enacted far too many timid half-measures that merely tinkered around the edges,” said Brett Hartl, the group’s government affairs director. “We hope she’ll push immediately for the bold climate action that is desperately needed now.”

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The Joe Biden transition team announced Thursday that the president-elect has picked Michael Regan, the 44-year-old head of the North Carolina Department of Environmental Quality, to lead the Environmental Protection Agency. If confirmed, he would be the first African American to hold that post. One of his key tasks will be restoring the reputation, morale, and science-informed operations of the 50-year-old agency whose mission Donald Trump and his appointees Scott Pruitt and Andrew Wheeler undermined and tainted over the past four years. 

Among other things, Regan will have to cope with the weakening or destruction of more than 130 environmental regulations on energy and pollution that the Trump regime implemented or is tied up in court trying to implement. Included are limits on vehicle emissions and methane emissions on coal-burning power plants. One obstacle Regan will face is Trump’s move to make new regulations harder to put in place. As the Biden-Harris administration focuses on the climate crisis, the EPA will play a major role, something the current occupant of the White House sought to obliterate. 

Jody Freeman, a Harvard University law professor who served as White House counselor for energy and climate change in the Obama administration, told Lisa Friedman at The New York Times, “He faces a massive reconstruction and rebuilding operation. … He’s got a raft of rules that he’s got to rescind and replace and strengthen” and “He’s got to do this under some time pressure.”

Regan served for 10 years as an air quality specialist at the EPA in the Bill Clinton and George W. Bush administrations and subsequently worked eight years for the Environmental Defense Fund, one of the nation’s most prominent environmental advocacy groups. In 2017, he was appointed to lead North Carolina’s environmental agency, replacing the previous head, a climate science denier who favored deregulation and fought to kill Obama’s Clean Power Plan that limited greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. 

Among Regan’s successes running the state’s environmental agency were settlements to eliminate certain chemicals from one company’s manufacturing process and clean up toxic coal ash storage ponds, the nation’s toughest and most expensive such cleanup. One unnamed source says Regan was tough on Duke Energy, the state’s giant utility and operator of the ponds. He set up an office of environmental justice to advise the agency. He also drafted a climate change plan with the goal of making North Carolina carbon neutral by 2050. Biden has pledged to put the United States on a trajectory reach net-zero carbon emissions by that year.

EDF President Fred Krupp praised Regan’s work at the North Carolina DEQ. “He quickly restored morale and then solved big problems by respecting science and bringing together people with different views — that’s how he’s been so effective protecting public health and the environment in North Carolina’s divided government.”

In North Carolina, Regan “has led a large and complex agency with skill, openness to new ideas and a determination to achieve real results for the people of his state,” Krupp said. “The selection of Michael Regan makes it clear that Joe Biden is serious about making real progress on climate change, improving public health and addressing environmental justice. He will ensure that science, law and a commitment to a healthier future will be at the center of America’s environmental policies.”

Earthjustice President Abigail Dillen said: “As EPA Administrator, Regan will play a key role in solving the climate crisis and protecting the health of all communities. We will do everything in our power to support and push Regan to repair the damage done by the Trump administration, take bold action on climate solutions, and genuinely address environmental injustice that has been allowed to go on too long.”

If confirmed by the Senate, Regan can make it a new day at EPA, with the agency again dedicated to its original mission of protecting the environment rather than making it easier for polluters to wreck it. But with at least half of Senate comprising climate science deniers and even more members intent on shielding polluters from new regulations, it will be rough sledding for its new chief. But one reason Regan was picked in addition to his relevant experience is his reported ability for working across the aisle with Republicans in the North Carolina legislature.

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The idea that more Americans might die in a single day from COVID-19 than died on 9/11 has amazingly become passé. In just a week, that milestone was reached, reached again, then left thoroughly in the dust. Then on Wednesday, previous records were blown away. Whether you take the value from WorldOMeters (3,538) or CNN (3,700), the number of Americans who died unnecessarily from a disease that was purposely allowed to rage across the nation has never been worse … though it almost certainly will be. The United States now has over 17 million COVID-19 cases, just under a quarter of all the cases in the world.

But against that background of absolute, well-nigh ultimate darkness, there was also some good news on Wednesday. That includes a second vaccine that is likely to be approved this week, the “vaccine Hanukah miracle” where nurses have discovered that each vial of Pfizer vaccine actually contains enough to provide at least one extra dose, and FDA approval of three home tests that may be the most important step in genuinely controlling the disease.

Almost from the outset of the pandemic, there has been a huge disparity in testing. At first, tests were so unavailable, or in such short supply, that a massive spike was underway in the Northeast before officials even realized what was happening. Even after tests became more widely available, they’ve largely been the domain of state officials who could encourage their use, or make it all but impossible. In just the last week, five states tested at least 1% of their total population for COVID-19. That includes New York, which has been testing at a high rate since it became possible. At the other end of the spectrum, Iowa tested about 0.1% of its population. The 35% positive rate in Iowa is a perfect indicator of just how inadequate testing there remains. Despite a month in which cases have fallen across much of the Midwest, some of this “improvement” may be purely illusory thanks to situations like Iowa, where testing has declined.

Over the last 10 months, a number of tests have come onto the market. But despite promises of cheap, fast tests that could be performed at home, testing has been limited, administered by medically trained personnel, and remained largely unavailable. For people stuck in their homes, afraid to visit with friends or family, repeated news that White House staff, NBA players, or actors involved in a television series are “getting tested every day” generate more anger than relief.

The idea of fast, saliva-based COVID-19 tests where people could get home pregnancy test-style results in a matter of minutes at a cost of around $5 have been a matter of frequent press releases and the subject of several studies. But these have remained unavailable. For the moment, they still are. 

What the FDA has approved is a non-prescription test from Australian firm Ellume. This test still involves a nasal swab, which means that, yes, using it does require shoving a stick up your nose. However, the end of that stick doesn’t have to penetrate as brain-scrapingly deeply as most formal tests. Other such nasal tests have been available, often from companies that have been willing to provide the medical cover needed to conduct the test. However, those tests have required sending back the swabs for results that arrive in days. The Ellume test can be used in coordination with an app available on Android or iPhones to deliver results in about 20 minutes. Ellume is reported to be announcing a marketing deal that would make the test available at major retailers, like CVS or Walgreens. However, it is not actually likely to available on nearby shelves in time for anyone’s Christmas dinner. The retail price is expected to be around $30.

The listed accuracy of the test is 100% for genuinely negative samples. That is, if you don’t have COVID-19, you don’t need to worry about a false positive. However, the test was 96% accurate on positive sample (91% accurate on asymptomatic cases), leaving the possibility that it could still miss out on those who have the disease—something to consider before you decide to employ the test to clear relatives before your holiday gathering. But the test was more accurate in identifying those in the first week of infection, the time when people are most contagious. So if you’re planning a get-together, think about first getting people past the term “mid-turbinate swab.” The test correctly identified 100% of negative samples and 96% of positive samples from people with symptoms when compared to lab-based tests, according to Ellume. In people without symptoms, it identified 91% of positive samples and 96% of negative samples.

A second test from Lucira has also been approved, but for the moment that test still requires a prescription to obtain. The Lucira test is attractive for its easy-to-read “all in one” design, but in addition to being more restricted in access, it’s expected to be priced around $50. Lucira is making their test available in clinical settings over the next few weeks and expects to make millions of tests available shortly after the start of 2021.

Finally, the FDA has also approved Abbott’s BinoxNow test. This test is essentially identical to one that has been used in hospitals and nursing homes for months, so its use and accuracy is well-tested. Like the Ellume test, it also coordinates with a smartphone app, but in the BinoxNow case, users download the app first, fill out a questionnaire, and use it to order the test. The test is then shipped by mail, so those wanting a genuinely fast response will need to think ahead. Abbott plans to make 30 million tests in the first quarter of 2021 with a price of $25. However, at this point the Abbott test also requires a prescription.

The soon-to-be-announced availability from major retailers, the lack of need for a prescription, and the fact that people can obtain the test without first filling out a questionnaire will likely make Ellume’s test the most used over the next few months. However, those same qualities also make it the test least likely to be covered by insurance, so calculate that cost before snapping up a stockpile.

The fact that none of these tests are available to pick up today is still frustrating, but the FDA approval signals that they will be available in the very near future. So while they may not help in guaranteeing access to your grandmother’s special holiday coconut cake, they might help make it possible to hold a properly constrained and socially distanced family get-together a few weeks from now. (No matter what your test results, this is not permission to invite a few hundred of your closest over for a mask-free snog-a-thon.)

Behind all these, that fast saliva-based test is still on the way. The test, designed by Stanford bioengineering professor Manu Prakash, can produce results in 10 minutes, and has accuracy that is supposedly similar to the swab-based tests. Prakash has hoped to produce the test for as little as $1—which would make it extremely practical for millions of people to test on a regular basis. But so far it doesn’t appear that there is any agreement with a major company to manufacture these tests, or any sign of seeking FDA approval. As good as the idea may be, it is unlikely to reach a shelf near you any time soon.

However, the swab-based tests now becoming available, while not perfect and too expensive for repeated use by most people, do mean that millions who think they might have COVID-19 can be tested quickly and safely at home. They can then take appropriate actions to isolate themselves. Which makes these tests incredibly valuable. Oh, and that smartphone app that the Ellume test uses? It doesn’t just get your age to make sure the test is approved for your use, it also reports test results to local authorities. This is done so that at-home testing figures can be worked into regional and state planning.

Had these tests been available a few months ago, they might have generated a powerful impact on the surge now sweeping across the nation. But just because vaccines are now becoming available doesn’t mean that it’s too late for these tests to be valuable.

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The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.

Note: Monday’s Digest will be our last of the year.

Leading Off

● Pres-by-CD: Daily Kos Elections’ project to calculate the results of the 2020 presidential election for all 435 congressional districts makes its next stop in New Mexico, which was the site of one hotly contested House race this year and could soon host a special election in a different district. As always, we’re providing detailed county-by-county breakdowns, and we also have an extra-large map of the results you can explore.

With the benefit of hindsight, it’s no surprise that southern New Mexico’s conservative 2nd District returned to form in 2020 and ousted freshman Democratic Rep. Xochitl Torres Small, given Donald Trump’s strong 55-43 margin of victory. On the margins, that actually represented a small increase from his 50-40 win four years earlier, though the 2016 numbers were skewed somewhat by former Gov. Gary Johnson, who took a sizable 9% running on the Libertarian ticket.

Torres Small won a huge upset in the 2018 blue wave when she defeated Republican Yvette Herrell 51-49 after GOP Rep. Steve Pearce departed for an unsuccessful run for governor. But Herrell came back for a rematch and prevailed, though her 54-46 win was narrower than Trump’s 12-point spread.

Campaign Action

The state’s two other districts, both reliably blue, easily went for both Joe Biden and their respective Democratic House candidates, but there was an interesting flip-flop: For the first time in a presidential race since New Mexico added a third congressional seat following the 1980 census, the 1st District gave a higher share of its vote to the Democrat than the 3rd. While the district lines have shifted somewhat overtime, they’ve been largely stable for the last 30 years, with the 1st anchored by Albuquerque and the 3rd spreading out from Santa Fe.

This year, the 1st went for Biden 60-37 while the 3rd supported him 58-40; the strong result in the 1st was powered by Biden’s 61-37 win in Bernalillo County, the second-best showing by a Democrat of all time, trailing only FDR’s massive 1936 romp. Four years ago, the 1st gave Clinton 51.6% of the vote while the 3rd gave her 51.8%. The difference, of course, was not dramatic, and Clinton actually carried the 1st by a slightly larger margin (52-35 with rounding, vs. 52-37 in the 3rd).

The increased margin in the 1st is welcome news for D.C. Democrats, who’ve expressed some apprehension about Biden tapping 1st District Rep. Deb Haaland to become the first Native person to head up the Department of the Interior, a move he’s reportedly about to announce (see our NM-01 item below for more). While Republicans could be competitive in a special election here, a seat Biden won by 23 points is probably at the outer limits for them.

The key reason New Mexico’s districts haven’t budged much since the 1990s is that state government was divided between Democrats and Republicans in recent redistricting cycles, leading a judge to impose new maps each time that made as few changes as possible while ensuring population equality. That could change next year, however, as Democrats will have full control of redistricting for the first time since 1991.

P.S. If you haven’t done so yet, you’ll want to bookmark our complete data set with presidential results by congressional district for all 50 states, which we’re updating continuously.

Georgia Runoffs

● GA-Sen-A, GA-Sen-B: In a first, Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock have released a joint TV ad—they even say “we approve this message” in unison at the end—featuring none other than Joe Biden. In a direct-to-camera monologue designed to resemble a presidential address, Biden says, “On day one as your president, I’m prepared to sign a COVID relief package that fully funds the public health response needed, led by Georgia’s own CDC.”

He promises free testing and vaccination for all Americans, as well as small business relief, and emphasizes, “I need Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff in the United States Senate to get this done.” Biden even finishes with the traditional salutation he offers after all speeches: “God Bless America, and may God protect our troops.”

Ossoff, meanwhile, devotes his own 60-second spot to his mentor, the late John Lewis, and his legacy. It begins with footage of Lewis and fellow civil rights protestors getting brutally beaten at the Edmund Pettus Bridge in Selma, Alabama before showing Ossoff at the very same bridge today, narrating the ad.

Noting the courage of Lewis and his compatriots that brought about massive change in the 1960s, Ossoff insists, “The promise of equal justice in America remains unfulfilled, so together we’ll fight for a new Civil Rights Act and a new Voting Rights Act. To ensure equal justice for all no matter the color of our skin, to end racial profiling and police brutality, and to stop anyone from suppressing the sacred right to vote.”

The ad ends with a 10-second clip of Lewis addressing the Democratic convention in 2012, exhorting attendees to remember, “Too many people struggled, suffered, and died to make it possible for every American to exercise their right to vote.”

Senate

● FL-Sen, FL-Gov: The Tampa Bay Times directly asked Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy this week if she was considering a 2022 statewide run, and she very much did not say no. Murphy instead responded, “I think it’s a little early for that right now,” before adding, “There will be a time for politics and I think I have some experiences I will be able to share from my time flipping and serving a purple or red district.”

Meanwhile, another Democrat who had been mentioned for both offices, state Sen. Lauren Book, seems more interested in a third alternative. Politico reports that Book is considering a campaign against state Chief Financial Officer Jimmy Patronis, a Republican who has many of the duties that would belong to a treasurer or comptroller in other states. (The CFO is also the state fire marshal.) A consultant for Book said she’s “being approached by a number of leaders about seeking higher office” and that “nothing is off the table,” though he didn’t name any specific races.

Meanwhile, multiple media outlets have relayed rumors that Ivanka Trump’s recent decision to relocate to Florida means that she could challenge Sen. Marco Rubio in the Republican primary. There’s no indication that Trump is actually interested, and state party chair Joe Gruters dismissed the speculation as “just noise,” adding, “I don’t anticipate anybody running against the governor or Marco Rubio that’s serious at this time.” Trump, though, has not responded when asked to comment, so she’s at least not doing anything to get the chatter to stop.

● KY-Sen: Perry Bacon writes in Bluegrass Beat that outgoing state Rep. Charles Booker, who lost a surprisingly close Democratic primary for Senate to national party favorite Amy McGrath seven months ago, hasn’t ruled out challenging Republican incumbent Rand Paul for Kentucky’s other seat. “We have two terrible Senators in Kentucky,” Booker said in October, adding, “So I’m praying on what that means for me in 2022. Stay tuned.”

● NC-Sen: Republican Sen. Richard Burr has said for years that he won’t seek a fourth term in 2022, but he’s sounding a little less definitive about retirement all of a sudden. This week, when CNN asked Burr if he’d be running again, he responded, “I don’t have any plans to right now.” The senator, though, is still under investigation for the large stock transactions he made just before the markets tanked in mid-March as the coronavirus pandemic worsened, so he may not be able to stick around even if he wants to.

The GOP field currently consists of just one man, outgoing Rep. Mark Walker, though two of his soon-to-be-former colleagues may end up joining him. A spokesperson for Rep. Ted Budd confirmed that his boss is thinking about getting in, while fellow Rep. Dan Bishop very much didn’t rule it out. Bishop instead put out a statement saying his “thoughts about the US Senate right now” are confined to the two Georgia runoffs next month.

Governors

● MN-Gov: Minnesota Morning Take reports that state Senate Majority Leader Paul Gazelka and Rep. Pete Stauber are each “testing the waters for support” for a potential campaign for the Republican nomination for governor. Stauber did not rule anything out when asked last month, while Gazelka doesn’t appear to have said anything publicly about a possible bid against Democratic Gov. Tim Walz.

● VA-Gov: Loudoun County Sheriff Mike Chapman said this week he would not seek the Republican nomination next year.

House

● LA-02: EMILY’s List has endorsed state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson in the upcoming special election to succeed Rep. Cedric Richmond, a fellow Democrat, in this safely blue seat.

● NM-01: Multiple media organizations reported Thursday that Joe Biden would nominate Democratic Rep. Deb Haaland to lead the Department of the Interior. If confirmed by the Senate, Haaland, who is a member of the federally recognized Laguna Pueblo tribe, would be the first Native person to hold this post.

Haaland’s departure would also set off a special election in New Mexico’s 1st District in the Albuquerque area. A previous version of this seat hosted the state’s last congressional special back in 1998 after Rep. Steve Schiff died, which fellow Republican Heather Wilson won just 45-40 over Democrat Phil Maloof, with a Green Party candidate taking 15%. The area has moved sharply to the left over the ensuing two decades, though, and as new data from Daily Kos Elections shows, the current version of the 1st District backed Biden 60-37 (see our lead item above for more).

Special elections can be unpredictable, of course, but it would be very difficult for the GOP to put this seat into play. Inside Elections’ Ryan Matsumoto notes that the largest over-performance in a congressional special election during Trump era was the 2017 race for Kansas’ 4th District, where Democrat James Thompson ran 21 points ahead of Hillary Clinton’s margin but still lost to Republican Ron Estes; if Republicans were to flip New Mexico’s 1st, they’d need to outperform Trump by 23 points.

A number of Democrats will likely eye this seat if Haaland is confirmed (likely including some of the opponents she faced in 2018 when she won an open-seat race), but nominees won’t be chosen by primary voters. Instead, each party’s central committee would pick their candidate for the special.

Legislatures

● Special Elections: Saturday brings us our final legislative special election of 2020, an all-GOP affair in Texas:

TX-SD-30: Shelley Luther, who gained notoriety and admiration among conservatives when she was arrested earlier this year for defying the state’s COVID-19 restrictions to keep her Dallas-area salon open, will face state Rep. Drew Springer in Saturday’s runoff for this safely red seat in North Texas.

Luther narrowly edged out Springer 32.0-31.9 in the September all-party primary, while a Democrat took third with 21%. Gov. Greg Abbott went on to endorse Springer after the first round, which was hardly a surprise since Luther had called Abbott “our tyrant governor [who] has embarrassed us completely.”

Mayors

● Albuquerque, NM Mayor: Democratic Mayor Tim Keller is up for re-election in next year’s officially nonpartisan race, and he looks to be in good shape, as a September poll from Research & Polling Inc. for the Albuquerque Journal gave him a strong 60-22 approval rating. Keller’s detractors, though, hope that the concerns about the city’s crime rate, which has long been a major issue in local politics, will leave the incumbent vulnerable.

Bernalillo County Sheriff Manuel Gonzales expressed interest in taking on Keller over the summer, and local political observer Joe Monahan relayed this week that he was still considering. However, while Gonzales is a Democrat, he’s been more than willing to side with the Trump administration. In June, Gonzales appeared at the White House as Trump and U.S. Attorney General Bill Barr announced that they were deploying federal agents to Albuquerque.

New Mexico Democrats roundly condemned what Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham called “authoritarian, unnecessary and unaccountable military-style ‘crackdowns,'” and Sen. Martin Heinrich called for Gonzales’ resignation. Gonzales did not quit, though, and Trump soon commended him in a tweet for his “great comments on Operation Legend!”

● Anchorage, AK Mayor: Austin Quinn-Davidson became mayor of Anchorage in October after Democratic incumbent Ethan Berkowitz resigned as the result of a sex scandal, but it doesn’t sound like she’ll be seeking a full term next year: The Anchorage Daily News’ Aubrey Wieber wrote earlier this month that Quinn-Davidson said “she does not plan on running for mayor.” Not planning to run and not running are two different things, of course, but with the Jan. 29 filing deadline coming up quickly, it would be a surprise if Quinn-Davidson reversed course.

Local politicians had long been planning for what they thought would be an open-seat race to succeed Berkowitz, who was unable to seek another three-year term even before he departed (Anchorage is the only major city in America we know of where terms last for an odd number of years). As a consequence, a number of candidates have been competing in this officially nonpartisan race for a while. All the contenders will compete in the April 21 election, and if no one takes at least 45% of the vote, a runoff would take place May 5.

The field already includes Forrest Dunbar, a member of the Anchorage Assembly (the equivalent of the city council) who was the 2014 Democratic nominee against Republican Rep. Don Young before winning his current office in 2016. Another prominent local candidate is Bill Falsey, who resigned as the city’s municipal manager in November to concentrate on his bid. George Martinez, a former aide to Berkowitz, is also running.

The more notable candidates also include a trio of Republicans: former Republican City Assemblyman Bill Evans; Air Force veteran Dave Bronson; and Mike Robbins, a local party official. There is no obvious frontrunner at this point.

● Cleveland, OH Mayor: Businessman Justin Bibb announced Wednesday that he’d raised $180,000 in the three months since he launched a committee to explore a bid for mayor of Cleveland. Bibb is a member of the board of the Greater Cleveland Regional Transit Authority and the founder of a nonprofit focused on racial justice, as well as a cousin of longtime local TV news anchor Leon Bibb.

This office is currently held by Democratic Mayor Frank Jackson, who has not yet said if he’ll seek a fifth term next year. The field of potential candidates in this very blue city also includes City Council President Kevin Kelley and former Rep. Dennis Kucinich, who was nicknamed the “boy mayor” of Cleveland when he was elected to the position at the age of 31 back in 1977.

● Omaha, NE Mayor: Republican Jean Stothert is seeking a third term next year, and Democrats are hoping to give her a serious fight in this officially nonpartisan race.

Public health official Jasmine Harris, a Democrat who would be the city’s first Black mayor, announced in October. She was followed by developer RJ Neary, who joined the race earlier this month with the support of the city’s last two mayors, Democrats Mike Fahey and Jim Suttle. Neary also has the endorsement of City Councilman Ben Gray, who had been mentioned as a potential Democratic contender himself.

Other candidates may get in ahead of the March 8 filing deadline. Last month, the Omaha World Herald reported that two other Democrats, Omaha Public Schools board member Kimara Snipe and Douglas County board member Jim Cavanaugh, were also considering. The paper also relayed that Kara Eastman, who lost a very competitive race to Republican Rep. Don Bacon last month in the Omaha-based 2nd District, wasn’t ruling out a mayoral bid either.

All the candidates will face off in the April 6 nonpartisan primary, and the top-two vote-getters will proceed to the May 11 general election. Unlike in many cities, candidates cannot avert a second round of voting by winning a majority in the primary.

● San Antonio, TX Mayor: Mayor Ron Nirenberg, a progressive independent, defeated conservative City Councilman Greg Brockhouse by a narrow 51-49 margin in 2019, and Brockhouse recently said that he planned to try again next year. (San Antonio is the largest city in America to elect its mayors to terms lasting for two years rather than four.) The filing deadline is Feb. 12, and the officially nonpartisan contest will take place May 1. A runoff would take place on a later date if no one captures a majority of the vote.

Brockhouse made it clear he plans to rally Republican voters in this Democratic-leaning city. The former city councilman said that Donald Trump’s defeat meant that “[c]onservatives and faith-based people lost their champion,” but insisted that anger with the new national status quo would inspire them to turn out in 2021. Brockhouse also refused to acknowledge Joe Biden as president-elect and attacked Nirenberg as a “fearmonger” for his COVID-19 briefings.

● St. Petersburg, FL Mayor: Mayor Rick Kriseman is termed out next year, and two fellow Democrats have been laying the groundwork to succeed him for a while. Former Pinellas County Commissioner Ken Welch, who would be the city’s first Black mayor, said he’d file after the holidays, but he pre-emptively unveiled an endorsement this week from local Rep. Charlie Crist. City Councilwoman Darden Rice, who would be the city’s first gay leader and the first woman to hold the post since the 1980s, also recently said she plans to run.

Other candidates may get in ahead of the June 18 filing deadline. Former Democratic state Rep. Wengay Newton, who would also be the city’s first Black mayor, told the Tampa Bay Times this week he was “definitely considering.” Newton lost a Democratic primary to succeed Welch on the county commission in August 52-33 two years after he won renomination to the legislature with just 49% of the vote, but he argued that he’d do better in a race where Republicans and independents could vote. “I was shackled and limited to Democrats only,” Newton said, adding, “I’ve always prided myself on representing all the people.”

Businessman Deveron Gibbons also said he was being encouraged to run, though he said that the birth of his new child has him “weigh[ing] any political aspirations against this awesome responsibility, knowing that family must always come first.”

St. Petersburg is a predominantly Democratic city in national elections, but Republicans ran it for decades until Kriseman won in 2013, and they came close to taking city hall back four years later. They’re certain to try again. Florida Politics wrote last month that Republican City Councilman Robert Blackmon has avoided talking about his plans and instead “said he was honored to be a part of the conversation,” which isn’t a no. Republican state Sen. Jeff Brandes has ruled out running, but the site says there “continues to be a source of speculation regardless” about him.

The filing deadline is June 18 for the Aug. 24 nonpartisan primary. If no one wins a majority of the vote, the two contenders with the most support will advance to a Nov. 2 general election.

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I’m beginning to think President Trump’s “path to victory” is really nothing more than a path to relevance and continued fundraising. The votes have been counted, and in some cases, recounted. They’ve been certified. Lawsuits have been heard, laughed at and tossed out. The Electoral College has weighed in and called this election. It’s over.

But it isn’t over in the right wing fever dreams of places like Fox News, Newsmax, Breitbart and, of course, Trump’s squishy and deranged brain. There is always another court case and another revelation from some random right wing blog or podcast.

Conveniently, there are ways you can help Trump cross this ONE LAST HURDLE to another four years. Most of them involve giving money to his campaign, which is not really a campaign any more but a slush fund that will set him up for years to come.

Enjoy the cartoon, and remember, you can support my work over on my Patreon pages — and see behind-the-scenes videos, audio clips, prints and more!

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Business Insider:

Joe Biden just announced the lineup of his climate and energy Cabinet. Meet the key players.

• President-elect Joe Biden has picked former Obama officials and some policy experts from outside of Washington to enact his climate and energy agenda.
• Biden’s environmental picks include ex-Obama EPA boss Gina McCarthy, former Michigan Governor Jennifer Granholm, and Rep. Deb Haaland, one of the first Native American women elected to Congress.
• They’ll be busy enacting Biden’s climate agenda while working to unravel many of the policies the Trump administration put in place over the last four years.
• Because prospects for big climate legislation are slim in Congress next year, most of Biden’s climate change agenda will be hammered out by officials in the White House and in agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency and the Interior Department.

Matt Yglesias/Slow Boring ($) has an interesting take on the Democratic election  performance:

Why Trump’s Latino gains matter

A suggestion that progressives’ theory of Trump-era politics is wrong

But beyond the surprisingness question, I think Trump gaining in this community is worth paying attention to for the very reason that a lot of people don’t want to pay attention to it: it challenges and complicates the influential progressive view that Trump’s political success was based exclusively on mobilizing white supremacist sentiments.

This is something we’ve looked at in depth over the last few years, which is to say what’s the attraction for Trump voters? Turns out it’s multidimensional but two key related factors are education vs non education in depth (i.e. cultural divide), and a focus on immigration. The education piece has been analyzed since 2016, but in south TX, e.g, it is wrapped up withs jobs vs theory (for example, who can and can’t work from home).  When the jobs are in oil, you vote that way. 

And In 2016 The Wall was everything, which turned off many BIPOC voters.  In 2020 it was downplayed down the memory hole, partially thanks to a media that forgot about kids in cages as old news.

David Shor did a fascinating podcast with Chris Hayes this week (no paywall) that took a similar crack at it. he makes the case that overwhelmingly, persuasion mattered. 

Jeremy Samuel Faust, Harlan M. Krumholz And Rochelle P. Walensky/NY Times:

People Thought Covid-19 Was Relatively Harmless for Younger Adults. They Were Wrong.

New research shows that July may have been the deadliest month for young adults in modern American history.

Young adults are dying at historic rates. In research published on Wednesday in the Journal of the American Medical Association, we found that among U.S. adults ages 25 to 44, from March through the end of July, there were almost 12,000 more deaths than were expected based on historical norms.

In fact, July appears to have been the deadliest month among this age group in modern American history. Over the past 20 years, an average of 11,000 young American adults died each July. This year that number swelled to over 16,000.

EJ Dionne/WaPo:

Joe Biden may be tougher than the GOP expects

True, Biden’s visit this week on behalf of the Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff reflected differences in the stakes involved. Democrats already enjoyed a solid majority in the Senate after the election 12 years ago. This year, they need to win both Georgia races to get to 50 seats and control the Senate, thanks to Vice President-elect Kamala Harris’s tie-breaking vote.

But by campaigning, Biden is also signaling that however strong his affection might be for an older, less polarized politics, he understands that it’s not the 1970s — or 2008 — anymore. The radicalization of the Republican Party is a fact he is coming to accept.

Thus, he pulled no punches in his tough attack Monday on the efforts of President Trump and his GOP allies to discredit this year’s election outcome. He called it “an unprecedented assault on our democracy” that “refused to respect the will of the people, refused to respect the rule of law and refused to honor our Constitution.

Dan Diamond/Politico:

‘We want them infected’: Trump appointee demanded ‘herd immunity’ strategy, emails reveal

Then-HHS science adviser Paul Alexander called for millions of Americans to be infected as means of fighting Covid-19.

A top Trump appointee repeatedly urged top health officials to adopt a “herd immunity” approach to Covid-19 and allow millions of Americans to be infected by the virus, according to internal emails obtained by a House watchdog and shared with POLITICO.

“There is no other way, we need to establish herd, and it only comes about allowing the non-high risk groups expose themselves to the virus. PERIOD,” then-science adviser Paul Alexander wrote on July 4 to his boss, Health and Human Services assistant secretary for public affairs Michael Caputo, and six other senior officials.

Axios:

Scoop: Top Biden aide’s “f–ker” quote under fire

Between the lines: This is one of the first signs of division in a team that’s prided itself through the campaign and transition on unity, message discipline and minimal leaks, and is now preparing to govern.

• “For those of us who, from Day One, bought into Biden’s calls for civility and a return to normalcy, this isn’t just beyond the pale — it’s plain stupid,” said one Biden donor.

The other side: “Could she have used a different adjective, sure,” said one Biden official. “But if you know Jen … she is real, she is authentic, she says it how it is.”

O’Malley Dillon didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Guess what? It’s a nothing story! The beauty is how many reporters repeated the comment uncensored and how many others said, oh fuck this, they are. I mean, after Trump’s outrages, you have to work to find something to be mad about with Biden.

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Night Owls, a themed open thread, appears at Daily Kos seven days a week

34 DAYS UNTIL JOE BIDEN AND KAMALA HARRIS TAKE THE OATH OF OFFICE

Julia Conley at Common Dreams writes—Not Just ‘Build Back Better’: Climate Groups Call on Biden to ‘Build Back Fossil Free’:

Demanding far-reaching policies to keep more fossil fuels in the ground and ramp up the renewable energy transition, a coalition of environmental, racial, and economic justice groups launched a new campaign Thursday calling on President-elect Joe Biden to go beyond his vague campaign pledge to “build back better” from the coronavirus pandemic and its corresponding recession.

To ensure a lasting recovery and a sustainable economy, the organizations said, Biden must “Build Back Fossil Free”—something he can do largely without the help of the U.S. Congress, through dozens of executive actions he can take as soon as he is inaugurated on January 20. […]

At the Build Back Fossil Free campaign’s website, which went live early Thursday morning, groups including 350.org, Greenpeace, Indivisible, and the Center for Biological Diversity explain that Biden’s executive actions must focus on undoing the damage caused by decades of environmental racism and injustice and the extraction of fossil fuels.

At the Build Back Fossil Free campaign’s website, which went live early Thursday morning, groups including 350.org, Greenpeace, Indivisible, and the Center for Biological Diversity explain that Biden’s executive actions must focus on undoing the damage caused by decades of environmental racism and injustice and the extraction of fossil fuels.

“Mr. President-elect, you should use all the tools at your disposal to avert further climate devastation while helping people recover from the pandemic,” the organizations, which represent millions of advocates across the country, wrote. “That means using your executive authority from Day One to:

• Protect and invest in the Black, Indigenous, Brown, and working-class communities that have borne the brunt of fossil fuel pollution and climate disaster.
• End the era of fossil fuel production, reject fossil fuel projects, and eliminate giveaways to oil, gas, and coal corporations.
• Launch a national climate mobilization to Build Back Fossil Free, delivering jobs, justice, and opportunity for all.” […]

Indian country showed up for @JoeBiden. With a stroke of a pen– he can use executive power to show up for Indian Country. Read the Executive Action Blueprint Biden can follow to be a #ClimatePresident & sign the #BuildBackFossilFree petition here:https://t.co/DGe6BgmJ3G pic.twitter.com/KXsKYwijfb

— Indigenous Environmental Network (@IENearth) December 17, 2020

THREE OTHER ARTICLES WORTH READING

• Stimulus Checks to Come at the Unemployed’s Expense, by Eric Levitz. Now, instead of providing America’s jobless with 16 weeks of enhanced benefits, the legislation affords them just ten.
   
• The Activist Who Keeps Exposing Environmental Racism in the U.S., by Geoff Dembicki. Beverly Wright, co-founder of the National Black Environmental Justice Network, has spent decades empowering communities that are vulnerable to toxic chemicals.
   
• Mass Incarceration Is Declining — But Not For Women, by Robert P. Alvarez. The next administration needs to address this crisis and the war on drugs driving it.

TOP COMMENTS • RESCUED DIARIES

QUOTATION

“[The American President] has to take all sorts of abuse from liars and demagogues.… The people can never understand why the President does not use his supposedly great power to make ’em behave. Well, all the President is, is a glorified public relations man who spends his time flattering, kissing and kicking people to get them to do what they are supposed to do anyway.”
          ~~Harry S. Truman, Letter to his sister Mary, 1947

TWEET OF THE DAY

BLAST FROM THE PAST

At Daily Kos on this date in 2009—Magical Thinking Prevails in Copenhagen:

With demonstrators being arrested every day and non-traditional media, plus some mainstream media, being kept out of discussions, the climate change talks in Copenhagen are teetering on the precipice of outright failure. While some progress has been made, even the arrival of the chiefs of more than 100 governments Friday, including President Barack Obama, seems unlikely to accomplish in less than 24 hours what hasn’t been achieved in two weeks of talks or the months of preparation for them.

Meanwhile, long-time environmental advocate Bill McKibben revealed in a Daily Kos diary Thursday afternoon, and traditional media subsequently have reported, leaked documents from the United Nations call into serious question governments’ claims that they are aiming for carbon dioxide cuts that would hold average global temperatures to a rise of 2°C over the next century. Instead, the cuts could allow a temperature rise of 3°C or 4°C, with more than 550 parts per million of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. That’s well above the 350 ppm scientists believe is a (relatively) safe level.

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A Black teen convicted of murder when Sen. Amy Klobuchar was a Minnesota prosecutor was released from prison Tuesday after spending 18 years in prison. A pardon board determined the sentence for Myon Burrell, 34, was inappropriate for a child, the Star Tribune reported. Dressed in an Islamic thobe, he told supporters who had gathered outside of Stillwater prison to celebrate his release that he can’t express his gratitude. “We’re fighting for justice,” he said. “There’s too much injustice going on.”

His son Myon Burrell Jr. was 1 year old when his dad was arrested and accused of killing 11-year-old Tyesha Edwards, who was hit by a stray bullet while doing homework at a dining room table in 2002. The senior Burrell has maintained his innocence, supported by a telling Associated Press investigation and a subsequent independent probe. “This was the best feeling I ever had,” 19-year-old Myon Burrell Jr., said. “I’ve been waiting for that my whole life, since I was one years old. Now that he’s out, he ain’t never going back!”

RELATED: Klobuchar asked to suspend campaign after probe suggests she may have put innocent teen in jail

The Georgia runoff is Jan. 5. Click here to request an absentee ballot. Early in-person voting starts Dec. 14. 

Let’s give GOP Leader Mitch McConnell the boot! Give $4 right now so McConnell can suffer the next six years in the minority.

[Edited to clarify Sen. Klobuchar was not the lead prosecutor on the case, but was the District Attorney in charge of prosecuting attorneys]

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Cases of the novel coronavirus are increasing at a rapid rate across the U.S. and health officials worry this trend will only increase as the holiday season continues. Despite recommendations that large gatherings should not take place amid the coronavirus pandemic, some continue to host public events.

The risk of spread as a result of these gatherings is not only high but extremely likely. Weddings and holiday gatherings have proven to be superspreader events across the country, yet some local counties still refuse to cancel them. A Georgia Christmas parade may have been an attempt at spreading the holiday spirit, but an opportunity for children to take Christmas photos with Mr. and Mrs. Claus may also have exposed nearly 50 children to COVID-19.

The annual parade took place in Ludowici, Georgia, and was hosted by the Long County Chamber of Commerce. As part of the festivities, children were allowed to sit in Santa’s lap for a photo. At least 50 children posed for photos Thursday, two days before Mr. and Mrs. Claus both tested positive for COVID-19. The confirmed tests were shared in a notice posted on the Long County Board of Commissioners website on Monday, claiming that both Santa and his spouse did not show any symptoms at the event. The announcement was also shared on the chamber’s Facebook page.

“While this is cause for concern, I feel that it is important to note that exposures happen every day as we go about our day to day lives, often without any knowledge. Children are in close contact with both other children and adults daily at school, rec functions, and church,” Robert D. Parker, chair of Long County Board of Commissioners, wrote. “Proper CDC exposure guidelines should be followed if your child was exposed, however I do not feel this incident is cause for panic.” Despite the risk the event entailed and the number of rising cases in Georgia, Parker made no apologies, noting that his children also took photos with Santa.

“It was well attended by our public officials and I believe I speak for the majority of them in saying that we still stand by the decision … to move forward with these holiday traditions, and to bring some sense of normalcy to these trying times.” According to Parker, such holiday traditions are essential  because of the  “countless underprivileged children who would never have experienced the joy of meeting Santa Claus.”

But while one might commend Parker for looking out for children who might not otherwise have their dream of meeting Santa Claus come true, the risk presented by this event cannot be ignored. Exposures may happen every day and might not be intended, but hosting an event of this sort without taking the proper precautions is irresponsible. Not only are cases increasing nationwide, but symptoms may not be noticeable in children for days, causing not only a chance of exposure between families but also fellow students, peers, and staff who may have come in contact with the children since. In the announcement, Parker claimed that the event and school present the “same risk of exposure”; however, voluntarily hosting a holiday event despite public health official recommendations is different than attending school, as education is mandatory.

Additionally, while it is unclear how many children wore masks and how many did not, pictures posted on social media clearly show that both Mr. and Mrs. Claus failed to wear masks. Children may not show symptoms as severely as adults but that does not mean they are not impacted by or cannot be infected by the virus.

State demographics show that Long County has a population of approximately 20,000 people. According to the Georgia Department of Public Health, at least 16 new cases of the virus were reported in the country in the last week. As of this report, more than 534,000 people have been infected with and at least 9,856 have died as a result of COVID-19 in Georgia, according to data compiled by The New York Times. While a vaccine is currently being distributed to health officials and vulnerable populations nationwide, following safety precautions and other regulations in place to stop the spread of COVID-19 is essential.

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THIS IS IT, PEOPLE

… the last edition of This Week in Statehouse Action of the year, I mean.

And yes, it’s been a year.

And no, it’s not over.

And no, 2021 isn’t necessarily going to be any better.

In some ways, it’s actually going to be worse.

Oh, you thought we were going out on a sunny, hopeful note?

I am so, so sorry.

But you come here for bad jokes honesty.

So let’s take a quick look back at some of the year’s lowlights and consider what we’re staring down the barrel of in 2021.

Last Session: The year started off pretty mundanely, considering it was an election year that ends in zero (making it the final election preceding a round of redistricting).

Campaign Action

• The biggest shift was in Virginia, which, thanks to its off-off-year state elections, was the only legislature newly flipped. Democrats had control of the state House, Senate, and governorship for the first time in over a quarter century, and the party used its trifecta control to do all kinds of cool things, like
  • Passing a slew of new gun safety laws,
  • Decriminalizing marijuana, 
  • Raising the minimum wage,
  • Establishing protections for the LGBTQ community,
  • Expanding access to reproductive health care and abortion,
  • Ratifying the Equal Rights Amendment,

… and more.

And then …

Grandma Got Run Over By A Virus: COVID-19 changed everyone’s lives in March, including state lawmakers’.

• Many states’ legislative sessions don’t wrap up until Spring or Summer (or later), so legislators nationwide scrambled to finalize budgets and pass key bills as quarantines and stay-at-home orders took effect.
  • Some legislatures and committees started convening virtually and changed physical quorum requirements; others took extensive measures to limit lawmakers’ exposure to one another, like staggered or remote voting, voting by phone, and moving session to larger venues to facilitate proper social distancing.
    • Unfortunately, that hasn’t stopped a slew of COVID-19 outbreaks among legislators and staffers in statehouses—and even some deaths.
• But as the pandemic progressed, so did election season—and things were looking pretty pretty good for Democrats flighting to flip state legislative majorities to win influence over the upcoming round of redistricting in key states.

Whoops.

Silver Bells: Democrats took the silver, so to speak, in key legislative races in Arizona, Iowa, Minnesota, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Texas on Election Day … except, as I am awfully fond of saying, there’s no second place in politics.

• While it’s legitimately great that Joe Biden and Kamala Harris won, downballot Democrats took a bit of a beating—and they took that beating in the worst possible year.
  • The story of 2020 isn’t what Republicans flipped—after all, that turned out to be a grand total of two chambers (Alaska notwithstanding/tbd): the New Hampshire House and Senate.

Republicans’ big win in 2020 was what they managed to not lose.

Let’s talk about what Democrats are facing in the 2021 round of redistricting.

… and yeah, it sucks.

Things definitely got worse for Democrats redistricting-wise as a result of this year’s elections.

• Which means winning a majority in the U.S. House is going to be even harder for Democrats over the course of the next decade—to say nothing of winning power in state legislatures.
  • Nov. 3 saw the GOP’s redistricting edge expand from three- or four-to-one to potentially four- or five-to-one.
    • Yes, Republicans may end up drawing five times as many districts as Democrats.
  • This puts Democrats on footing almost as lopsided as the aftermath of the 2010 elections, when Republicans won the power to redraw five (and change) times as many House districts as Democrats.
    • You may recall that this huge advantage helped Republicans win the House in 2012 despite the fact that Democratic candidates won more votes.
      • Similar situations played out in several legislatures in key swing states multiple times over the last decade.

The 2020 election results created a grave risk of another decade of minority rule by the GOP both in Congress and in statehouses nationwide.

But there’s something else at play in the upcoming round of redistricting that wasn’t a factor in 2011.

• Back then, many new maps in southern states were subject to the preclearance requirement of the Voting Rights Act.
  • … a requirement the U.S. Supreme Court killed in Shelby County v. Holder back in 2013.

My talented Daily Kos Elections colleagues have assembled a super detailed breakdown of how the election results impact the next round of redistricting, but here’s the lowdown:

• Why we still care about Arizona results even though they have an Independent Redistricting Commission:
  • Governor: Republican (up in 2022)
  • House: Republican hold
  • Senate: Republican hold
    • Arizona has had an independent redistricting commission in place since 2000, but with the U.S. Supreme Court’s newly conservative configuration, the IRC is at a big of risk of being struck down.
      • Republicans in the legislature have repeatedly sought to undermine the commission, so ending the GOP’s control of state government would have helped insulate and preserve it.

Welp.

• Why we care about Michigan even though they have an independent redistricting commission:
  • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
  • House: Republican hold
  • Senate: Republican (up in 2022)
    • In 2018, Michigan voters approved a ballot measure establishing a redistricting commission, stripping the legislature of its power to draw district maps for itself and for the U.S. House.
      • Republicans in the state have been assailing it from go, and like Arizona’s commission, it’s at risk of being destroyed by the U.S. Supreme Court.
      • But even if it survives, litigation over the eventual maps the commission produces is likely, which is why it’s critical that Democrats gained a 4-3 majority on the state Supreme Court this year.
• Minnesota:
  • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
  • House: Democratic hold
  • Senate: Republican hold
    • Democrats fell just short in their bid to win trifecta control in Minnesota.
    • The state currently has nonpartisan maps drawn by a court and is poised to again after 2020.
      • But racial segregation in the Minneapolis area creates a “geography penalty” that harms Democrats, which means even ostensibly nonpartisan maps have the effect of functioning like GOP gerrymanders.
        • Case in point: Hillary Clinton and Democratic candidates won more votes statewide than Trump and Republicans in 2016 but failed to win a majority of seats in the state Senate.
        • That seems to have happened to Senate Democrats again this year and could indicate ill electoral fortunes for Dems in the state in coming cycles.
• New Hampshire:
  • Governor: Republican hold
  • House: Republican flip
  • Senate: Republican flip
    • On Nov. 3, Republicans unexpectedly regained their gerrymandered majorities to win full control over redistricting.
• North Carolina:
  • Governor: Democratic hold (but super irrelevant in this context)
  • House: Republican hold
  • Senate: Republican hold
  • Bonus! Supreme Court: Democratic hold
    • Battles over redistricting are set to continue after Republicans not only maintained their majorities, but also unexpectedly gained seats. And although Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper won reelection, it totally doesn’t matter: he’s unable to veto most key redistricting bills.
      • But it gets worse!
    • Republicans ousted three Democratic incumbents on the state Supreme Court, narrowing Democrats’ majority to 4-3.
      • This matters because state courts curtailed the GOP’s gerrymanders last year and may be called on to do so again in the coming decade.
        • However, state-level judicial review is not guaranteed to succeed again given the increasingly radical stances taken by the U.S. Supreme Court.
• Pennsylvania:
  • Governor: Democratic (up in 2022)
  • House: Republican hold
  • Senate: Republican hold
    • While Pennsylvania’s Supreme Court has a Democratic majority that issued a ruling striking down the GOP’s congressional gerrymander in 2018, it may not get the chance to draw a fair map of its own, especially if the U.S. Supreme Court interferes.
    • However, Democratic Gov. Tom Wolf may block Republican legislators from passing an extreme congressional gerrymander.
• Texas:
  • Governor: Republican (up in 2022)
  • House: Republican hold
  • Senate: Republican hold
    • I mentioned in this space shortly before the election that Republicans were pumping tons of late cash into these state House races, and WOW did that effort pay off.
    • Texas is arguably the most important state for Republican congressional gerrymandering, and Democrats failed to make the big gains needed to flip the state House to break the GOP’s trifecta control of the state.
      • But wait, it gets worse!
        • Democrats also failed to lay the groundwork for striking down gerrymanders later this decade after Republicans swept all four seats up this year to maintain their 9-0 state Supreme Court majority.

Sigh.

But I’m not done!

• It’s time to talk about Iowa.
  • Governor: Republican (up in 2022)
  • House: Republican hold
  • Senate: Republican hold (half of seats up every two years)
    • Since 1980, a nonpartisan agency has proposed state and congressional maps to the Iowa legislature, which has always adopted them.
    • However, since Democrats failed to break the GOP’s full control over state government, next year will be the first time ever under this system that one party has trifecta control during redistricting.
      • Current statute would allow the GOP to simply reject the agency’s three proposals and draw and pass their own gerrymandered maps.
        • They could also opt to just repeal the statute that created the bipartisan map-drawing body, but honestly, why even bother when they can just draw their own districts?
    • The only possible deterrent at play next year is fear of public backlash.
      • … but as an erudite reader of this missive, you know that Republicans just don’t care about backlash, especially when it comes to gerrymandering.
      • After all, how better to protect your party from anger over gerrymandering than to … gerrymander?

Flawless

tl;dr—

• This round of redistricting might not be as bad for Democrats as [[shudder]] the 2011 round, but it’s not gonna be much better.
  • And depending on SCOTUS interference, it could arguably be worse.

Slay Ride: One more thing to keep an eye on next year in all these legislatures Democrats failed to flip—especially in states with GOP governors:

A slew of bills finding innovative ways to make voting more difficult.

Thanks to legislative pre-filing of bills permitted (encouraged! Think of all those overwhelmed legislative services staffers during session) before many session commence in January, we know that Republicans in many states are already drooling over the prospect of creating more barriers to the ballot box.

In Texas, one GOP proposal seeks to prohibit sending mail-in ballot applications to any voter who doesn’t specifically request one. Another seeks to institute regular and frequent voter-roll purges, and another would broaden the definition of and increase criminal penalties for election fraud.

In Georgia, Republican lawmakers want to implement onerous voter ID requirements for those seeking to cast absentee ballots (since those ballots tended to help out Democrats this year).

These are just the tip of the iceberg. Keep an eye out for lots more of these measures popping up in the coming months (especially in states like Arizona and New Hampshire).