Ukraine update: Russia may have found something appropriate to celebrate on May 9

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The image above is from Russia’s practice for the upcoming May 9 parade. For weeks, Russian troops have been marching around the town, showing off their parade uniforms and driving some cleaned up, and hopefully decently maintained, vehicles along the streets, prepared to bring Moscow some of that military pomp so beloved of Soviet leaders and Donald Trump. This particular group is being lead by a new T-90M tank. It’s a 2017 update of Russia’s latest in-production tank.

The most notable upgrade to the T-90M is that it carries a new generation of Explosive Reactive Armor (ERA) that’s designed to stop incoming missiles and shells in their tracks. Its armor was specifically designed with the promise that it would stop anti-tank weapons, and even survive multiple incoming weapons striking at the same time. And you can see exactly how well that worked in practice by checking out the T-90M below.

I mean, who could guess that the first Russian T-90M would be hunted down within days after their much-advertised deployment to Ukraine’s Kharkiv Oblast. Say hi to our big friend Andriy Tsapliyenko. pic.twitter.com/1GaFuHcgR8

— Illia Ponomarenko 🇺🇦 (@IAPonomarenko) May 4, 2022

As far as anyone is aware, the number of T-90Ms sent to Ukraine so far would be one. The number still in operation would be zero. Overall, Russia has managed to roll out about 20 of the T-90M upgrades, but the remaining ones are apparently being held close to Moscow at the moment. After all, they’re needed for critical parade duty.

The same goes for Russia’s T-14 Armata. This angular next generation tank has been appearing in Moscow’s May 9 parades since 2015. However, to date it seems that fewer than a dozen have actually rolled off the line, with changes still being made and reported issues with multiple systems. A couple of them have at least been allowed to get dirty.

The final production version of the T-14 Armata probably pic.twitter.com/NgG2pCxA4A

— Kein Mensch Kein Tier (@KampfmitKette) May 5, 2022

If a T-14 shows up in Ukraine, don’t take it as a sign that Russia has confidence in its super tank. Take it as a sign of desperation.

After all, Russia is just four days away from a parade where it expected to celebrate its easy victory over Ukraine. Vladimir Putin fully believed that he would be standing in the bleachers, saluting the victors of the in Battle of Kyiv, maybe with a few acolytes from his new Ukrainian puppet government looking on for good measure. Even when it became clear that the parade was not going to feature Volodomyr Zelenskyy being dragged along in chains, there was still the hope that sticking all of Russia’s forces into the Donbas would allow them to overwhelm Ukraine, and push to the borders of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in time for the parade to start. Only … nope. 

That’s okay. They could always bring in Belarus to drag Ukrainian forces to the west. Or how about a referendum in Kherson that would form a new “people’s republic?” Or an attack from Transnistria? Or Azovstal! They could at least finish off Azovstal and celebrate May 9 by declaring that Mariupol, so beautifully remodeled by Russian artillery, was eager to join up. Azovstal, yes!

Residential buildings around AzovStal. Published by Russians pic.twitter.com/qFGCSkbAUu

— A n n a 🇺🇦🇺🇸🇬🇧 (@tweet4anna) May 4, 2022

On Monday, Russian forces resumed hitting the Azovstal complex with both artillery and hundreds of dumb bombs dropped by strategic bombers. Russian ships in the Sea of Azov joined in, blasting the site with massive shells.

Before the smoke had even cleared, Russian forces attempted to storm the Azovstal complex, entering its maze of tunnels and chambers to root out the unknown number of remaining Ukrainian fighters from their positions deep underground. Throughout the day, there were reports of hand to hand fighting, and “bloody conflict.” On the surface, structures were blasted with explosives and set on fire in an attempt to burn every building remaining on the site to the ground.

Russian troops broke into the territory of the Azovstal plant in Mariupol, which is being defended by Ukrainian fighters. Today is the third day of active hostilities —Captain Svyatoslav Palamar, Deputy Commander of @Polk_Azov. No ceasefire is in place & evacuation is impossible. pic.twitter.com/wQsv4v9PVh

— Hromadske Int. (@Hromadske) May 5, 2022

For three days now, that fight has continued above ground and underground. Russian sources insisted on Monday that Azovstal was in “its final hours.” But they’ve said that before.

The Ukrainian defenders in Azovstal were having a singalong yesterday after beating back the Russian attempt to storm the steel plant. #SlavaUkraine #Ukraine #UkraineRussiaWar #AzovstaI #Mariupol #Azov pic.twitter.com/fWO6Qe2GTK

— Klaus Eriksen (@Fireblade577) May 5, 2022

With four more days remaining, it’s entirely possible that Putin will get the only peace he wants in Mariupol in time for his parade: the peace of the grave. After all, there is always gas that could be used against the defenders still evading his forces underground. There is always all that rubble available to block all the potential exits. If Putin wants everyone in the complex dead—including the forces that are not part of the Azov regiment, including the wounded who were not allowed to leave the hospital on the site, and including the civilians still trapped there—he can almost certainly have it.

On May 9, it’s almost certain that some selected “victors of Mariupol”—or some nice, tall, appropriately photogenic roleplayers—are going to join Putin’s parade. And that really would be  appropriate. They can celebrate the butchery of Bucha, the 600 women and children who died in the basement of Mariupol’s theater, the thousands of civilians buried in still-undiscovered mass graves, and the tens of thousands of Ukrainians being enslaved in Russian labor camps a continent away from their homes. They can celebrate the destruction. They can celebrate rape. They can celebrate a second Holodomor.

It’s really the only appropriate theme.


Thursday, May 5, 2022 · 2:32:58 PM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

📽️Fighting at the Azovstal plant in #Mariupol rages on. #UkraineRussiaWar pic.twitter.com/2wl7uQAiha

— MilitaryLand.net (@Militarylandnet) May 5, 2022


Thursday, May 5, 2022 · 2:39:20 PM +00:00

·
Mark Sumner

Weird how that’s the same exact argument Stop The War, Greenwald, Tracey, Scahill and Grim are making. The war would simply end if Ukraine just stops defending itself from extermination by a fascist dictatorship! Weird how often the Kremlin agrees with them almost verbatim. https://t.co/mVazkxA4bb

— Oz Katerji (@OzKaterji) May 5, 2022

It’s not so hard to understand, really. Putin is a mediocre ventriloquist. 

George Carlin’s take on the ‘pro-life’ movement is going viral again—for good reason

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With the leaked decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and send our country back to the era where we burned witches at the stake for staring at people, a famous old stand-up bit by the late, great, George Carlin is doing the rounds again. It’s a piece about the “pro-life” movement, aka the “anti-abortion” movement, the Christian conservative movement that has continued on in our country for decades and has now successfully dragged our society’s discourse back hundreds of years. Carlin takes on all of the language used and how just the smallest bit of analysis exposes how incoherent, how hypocritical, and ultimately, how clearly false all of the right’s rhetoric around abortion really is.

Carlin talks about the right-wing concept of “conception of life.” How the “fertilized egg” is supposedly a child. After riffing on how problematic and untrue that is, Carlin makes the point that the majority of a person’s “fertilized eggs” end up being flushed out during the menstrual cycle, “So basically what these anti-abortion people are telling us is that any woman who’s had more than one period is a serial killer.” He also reminds everyone that Catholics are some of abortion’s biggest opponents, and also one of the biggest opponents of homosexuals and homosexuality. “Well who has less abortions than homosexuals? Leave these fucking people alone for Christ’s sakes. Here is an entire class of people guaranteed never to have an abortion and the Catholics and Christians are just tossing them aside—you’d think they’d make natural allies.”

Christine Pelosi talks about the Supreme Court’s leaked decision on Roe v. Wade, and what Democrats are doing now, on Daily Kos’ The Brief podcast

Carlin pokes a bit more at the hypocrisy of the church in this regard, and then zeroes in on the phraseology used by the so-called “pro-life” movement. Specifically, Carlin wants to understand the term “sanctity of life.”

CARLIN: Well I mean, life is sacred? Who said so? God? Hey, if you read history you realize that God is one of the leading causes of death. Has been for thousands of years.

In fact, Carlin argues, so many different religions have used “God” to justify killing others that killing might be considered part of His brand. But beyond all of that, beyond the preaching about the “sanctity of life,” Carlin wants to know: Where do we practice what we preach? Which brings us back to the anti-abortionists:

CARLIN: Boy these conservatives are really something aren’t they? They’re all in favor of the unborn. They will do anything for the unborn, but once you’re born you’re on your own. Pro-life conservatives are obsessed with the fetus from conception to nine months. After that they don’t want to know about you. They don’t want to hear from you. No nothing. No neonatal care, no daycare, no head start, no school lunch, no food stamps, no welfare, no nothing. If you’re pre-born you’re fine. If you’re preschool you’re fucked!

Then Carlin moves on to when conservatives remember you’re alive: when you get to military age and they can send you off to kill and be killed. “These people aren’t pro-life, they’re killing doctors. What kind of pro-life is that? They’ll do anything they can to save a fetus but if it grows up to be a doctor they just might have to kill it.” And finally, Carlin, at his greatest, synthesizes it down to the essence: “They’re not pro-life. You know what they are? They’re anti-woman.”

You can watch the entire eight-minute chunk below. Enjoy.

Warning: some bad language and adult content.

Follow the people's lead, Democrats. Expand the Supreme Court

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The Supreme Court, comprising nine unelected people who have reached the most vaunted of public offices in the United States and are there for life, is more or less immune to public opinion. They are untouchable in practice—sure they theoretically could be impeached, but that’s pretty darned unlikely to happen. That could, however, change.

One thing that could change it is the fact that when an extremist majority takes over and starts acting with impunity, the public increasingly distrusts them. When the court acts without even bothering to go about the regular business of hearing and arguing controversial cases before handing down their edicts, they become even more suspect in the public eye.

When they start imperiously handing down highly controversial decisions that are far out of the mainstream of public opinion, they could be putting their own pleasant and long-standing careers in jeopardy. That’s going to depend in large part on whether Democrats mean all the things they’ve said about the Supreme Court and the extreme majority’s intent to gut abortion rights.

Immediately following the leak of Justice Samuel Alito’s draft decision overturning abortion rights published by Politico, Politico had Morning Consult conduct a poll, revealing that a clear majority of voters—57%—want the court to support abortion rights and that 56% of voters believe abortion should be legal in “most” or “all cases.”

Campaign Action

What else? The idea of Supreme Court reform is very popular: 66% strongly or somewhat approve of term limits for justices; 64% want to see an age cap for justices; 73% believe there should be a binding code of ethics for the court; 57% believe the court should be balanced with an equal number of Democrats, Republicans, and independents; and 57% support the idea of expanding the number of justices on the court.

That backs up polling conducted in March by Hart Research for The New Republic. That poll found that 52% of voters “believe that increasing the number of justices on the Supreme Court would strengthen democracy.” And boy, howdy, would it be popular with what generally is thought of as the Democratic base: 67% aged 18-34, 58% aged 35-49; 69% of Black voters, 60% of Hispanic voters; 72% of Democrats; 71% of Biden voters; 83% of liberals and 54% of moderates; 84% of liberal Democrats and 58% of moderate/conservative Democrats.

That’s a lot of people who could use a good reason to make the effort to vote this November, maybe even kick in a few bucks for volunteer hours. That awareness could be creeping in for Democrats. On the Senate floor Wednesday, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer took direct aim at the court, and at the Republicans who created it. “Now, we must be clear: this week’s draft decision didn’t come out of nowhere,” Schumer said. “It didn’t materialize in a vacuum. Indeed, the blame for the end of Roe lies primarily right across the aisle here with Senate Republicans.”

“The Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe would have never been possible without Leader McConnell and Senate Republicans spending years packing our courts with hard-right judges, judges who came from a list—under the Trump years—that the Federalist Society approved,” he continued. That’s right—he accused McConnell and Trump of packing the courts, which is precisely what happened. 

That’s the right narrative to build. The court has already been packed, it’s been packed with illegitimate justices by illegitimate means, by a perversion of the constitution. By McConnell, for Trump. The voters get that, and they get the solution: expanding the court. We just need the people who can do something about it to follow us.

Yes, there are obstacles in the form of Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema, but they’re basically daring Chuck Schumer and President Biden to make them irrelevant. That’s another motivating message for the base: Increase the majority and tell those two to take a hike. At this point, they’re not going to do anything to help Democrats—including helping to eliminate the filibuster to pass federal abortion protections—so Democrats might as well start running against them.

So expanding the court is what you might call a winning idea for President Biden and congressional Democrats. It also happens to be the most effective way to get our country back.

Our country. The one that won the Civil War. The one that is composed of a beautifully diverse, albeit unequal, population. The country built by labor unions and women and people of every color who have fought for it, fought for the promise that anyone can be anything in this land. That you don’t have to be a propertied, straight, white man in order to count.

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Morning Digest: How an unknown QAnon candidate shocked the Ohio GOP establishment on Tuesday night

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The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, Daniel Donner, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.

Subscribe to our podcast, The Downballot!

Leading Off

OH-09: Tuesday’s night’s biggest surprise came in Ohio’s newly gerrymandered 9th Congressional District, when J.R. Majewski, a QAnon-aligned activist who attended the Jan. 6 Trump rally that preceded the attack on the Capitol, defeated two Republican state legislators to win the nod to take on 20-term Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur. Majewski edged out state Rep. Craig Riedel 36-31, with state Sen. Theresa Gavarone taking third with 29%, and will now face Kaptur in a Toledo area constituency that would have supported Trump 51-48—a massive shift from Biden’s 59-40 victory in her current district.

Majewski, who previously served in the Air Force, made news in 2020 when he used paint to transform his yard into a giant “Trump 2020” banner, a move that Trump himself praised on Twitter. Majewski soon appeared decked out in a QAnon shirt in an interview with Fox News, and he also showed up on a QAnon livestream sporting related garb. In that appearance, writes the Daily Beast’s Will Sommer, Majewski identified himself as a supporter of the conspiracy cult and said, “I wear this shirt with pride.”

Following Trump’s defeat, Majewski bragged that he was helping bring people to the Jan. 6 rally. That day, he also appeared with a QAnon promoter named Zak Paine, who posted a video with Majewski in which Paine says they’d made it “all the way to the base of the Capitol building” after violence broke out.

When he launched his bid for Congress in the spring of last year, Majewski told the Toledo Blade that he hadn’t fully understood what QAnon was. However, Sommer reports, Majewski has continued to associate with Paine: In February, Majewski told Paine that he was willing to fight Democrats in a “civil war” (as Sommer put it) and even invited Paine to host a November victory party for him less than two weeks ago.

Until Tuesday night, though, Majewski’s prospects of even making it to the general election seemed remote. Riedel and Gavarone each enjoyed considerably deeper networks as sitting elected officials, and they made use of them. Riedel ran commercials touting his support from Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, including one in which he pledged to join Jordan’s Freedom Caucus. Gavarone, who is closer to GOP leadership, sported a notable endorsement of her own from 5th District Rep. Bob Latta, who currently represents just over half the revamped 9th.

However, Majewski proved to be a tougher opponent than either official likely realized. The candidate ultimately raised and self-funded just over $250,000 through late April, which was actually slightly more than the amount Gavarone brought in. (Riedel took in a little more than $435,000, with a large portion of that self-funded.) And while Majewski, unlike his two foes, doesn’t appear to have run TV commercials, he did still generate attention with an online video in which he told his audience he’d “do whatever it takes to return this country back to its former glory” just before cocking a rifle. (After his win, another video surfaced of him in a “Let’s Go Brandon” rap video. We’ve warned you.)

Majewski also benefited from outside support from Drain the DC Swamp, a PAC that spent close to $400,000, mostly on mail and radio ads promoting him and bashing the two state lawmakers. Trump himself gave Majewski a shoutout at a late April rally for Senate candidate J.D. Vance, saying, “We love you, J.R.” (Given Trump’s difficulty in remembering the initials of Ohio Republicans, though, it’s always possible this was just a happy accident.)

Majewski will now go up against Kaptur, who is the longest-serving woman in the history of the House, for a seat that Republicans engineered to try to win for themselves. The congresswoman, though, is hoping that her deep ties to the Toledo area will help her win over enough conservatives to hold on. Even Majewski, when he launched his campaign, acknowledged, “My grandparents supported Marcy Kaptur. My grandmother adored Marcy Kaptur and so did my great-grandmother. They adored her.”

The Downballot

This week’s dreadful news that the Supreme Court is poised to strike down Roe v. Wade underscores more than ever why progressives must build power at the state level. The Downballot hosts Gaby Goldstein, the co-founder of Sister District, to discuss what Democrats in the states are doing to protect abortion rights; how her organization helps connect volunteers with worthy legislative candidates across the country; and the advice she’s giving campaigns on how to succeed in a difficult political environment.

Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard also recap Tuesday’s primaries in Ohio, including Trump-endorsed J.D. Vance’s come-from-behind victory in the GOP Senate race, Nina Turner’s fizzled rematch with Rep. Shontel Brown, and a shock win by an openly QAnon rando in a House district Republicans are hoping to flip. We also cast a gimlet eye at last-minute ballot shenanigans in New York State designed to benefit Gov. Kathy Hochul.

Please subscribe to The Downballot on Apple Podcasts or wherever you listen to podcasts. You’ll find a transcript of this week’s episode right here by noon Eastern Time.

Senate

AL-Sen: Republican Rep. Mo Brooks’ latest ad ahead of the May 24 primary features audio of the 2017 shooting attack on a GOP congressional baseball practice event, where Brooks was present and Republican Rep. Steve Scalise along with several others were seriously injured in the shooting, to claim he was the top target of the “leftist gunman.” Brooks uses the incident to highlight his recent endorsement from the NRA.

AR-Sen: With just under three weeks to go until the Republican primary, Sen. John Boozman has launched an ad that criticizes his opponent, former NFL player Jake Bequette, as “fake Jake” and argues Bequette opposes Trump’s agenda without providing any specifics. The rest of Boozman’s spot touts how he has been a steadfast Trump ally who supported Trump’s Supreme Court appointees, backed his border wall, and has Trump’s endorsement.

NC-Sen: Meredith College has released a late-April poll of the May 17 GOP primary, and it finds Rep. Ted Budd holding a 33-26 lead over former Gov. Pat McCrory, with a 34% plurality of voters still undecided. Budd has led in every poll since mid-March, and he would only need to win with a plurality above 30% in order to avoid a potential July runoff.

Governors

AZ-Gov, NM-Gov: The RGA has unveiled new ads attacking Democrats running for governor in Arizona and New Mexico over immigration.

The Arizona ad is a minute-long spot that claims without evidence that Joe Biden and Democrats favor “open borders” and blames them for a whole host of supposed ills as a result. It then singles out Secretary of State Katie Hobbs, the Democratic primary frontrunner, over the federal government’s immigration policy known as Title 42. The Trump administration implemented Title 42 in March 2020 to enable immigration officials to quickly deport asylum-seekers, even those with valid asylum claims, to Mexico in the name of preventing COVID-19 outbreaks at border detention centers, though Trump officials had reportedly wanted to implement it even before the pandemic began.

The Biden administration has subsequently moved to revoke the policy later this month now that the pandemic is no longer as dire a threat and once again allow those seeking asylum to remain in the country while officials determine whether they qualify for asylum, which Republicans have fixated on to attack Democrats. Hobbs had initially said in early April that “Title 42 isn’t working,” but she told CNN later last month that Biden should reverse his “rash decision” to lift it because doing so “without a clear plan to secure our border would be a disaster.”

Hobbs’ campaign contends that her statement to CNN was clarifying her earlier position that Title 42 has been ineffective because border crossing attempts increased anyway after Trump implemented it, but the GOP has pounced on it to accuse her of flip-flopping. Local CBS affiliate KPHO reports that Board of Regents member Karrin Taylor Robson, who is running in the GOP primary, has “spent big money” on ads attacking Hobbs over the issue.

Meanwhile, the New Mexico ad is another minute-long spot where the first part is nearly identical to the Arizona ad. The second half chastises Democratic Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham for withdrawing National Guard troops from the border shortly after taking office and claims she refuses to oppose Biden’s “open borders” policy, an unnamed reference to Title 42. The RGA’s assertion cites the Albuquerque Journal without noting that the article in question is an opinion piece from … Mark Ronchetti, who is the frontrunner in the GOP primary to take on Lujan Grisham.

FL-Gov: St. Pete Polls’ newest survey for Florida Politics shows Rep. Charlie Crist beating Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried 52-19 in the August Democratic primary to go up against GOP incumbent Ron DeSantis.  

GA-Gov, GA-Sen, GA-AG: The Republican firm ARW Strategies has released a poll of the May 24 GOP primary, though there’s no word if these numbers were done on behalf of a client. It finds Gov. Brian Kemp turning back former Sen. David Perdue 59-22, while former football star Herschel Walker outpaces state Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black 59-10 in the Senate contest. ARW also has the first survey we’ve seen of the attorney general nomination fight, and it shows incumbent Chris Carr leading his Trump-endorsed foe, Big Lie proponent John Gordon, 25-9, with 66% undecided.

Kemp has posted huge leads in every recent poll even though his party’s leader badly wants him to fall, but the governor enjoys the support of noted Dallas-based painter George W. Bush. Bush will be the “special guest” at a Kemp fundraiser later this month, which seems to be his primary function in today’s Republican Party.

ME-Gov: New campaign finance reports show that Democratic incumbent Janet Mills outraised her Republican rival, former Gov. Paul LePage, $1.1 million to $455,000 from Jan. 1 through April 26, and she holds a $2 million to $855,000 cash-on-hand lead.

OR-Gov: Nelson Research has conducted what it says is an “independently conducted poll” of the May 17 Republican primary, and it finds that no one has established a firm lead with less than two weeks to go. Former state House Minority Leader Christine Drazan outpaces former state Rep. Bob Tiernan 19-14, with 2016 nominee Bud Pierce at 10%; a 27% plurality of respondents are undecided. Back in mid-April, the firm showed Pierce edging out Drazan 11-8, with Tiernan locked in a three-way tie for third with just 5%.

PA-Gov: The Club for Growth hasn’t made an endorsement ahead of the busy May 17 Republican primary, but it’s very much decided it wants wealthy businessman Dave White stopped . The Philadelphia Inquirer reports that the group is spending about $1 million in the Pittsburgh media market on a commercial accusing White of “defending a massive tax hike” when he served on the Delaware County Council “even though taxes had already gone up by more than 12%.”

DGA: The Democratic Governors Association has booked a total of $75 million in fall TV time to defend Democratic incumbents in seven states:

  • Colorado: $5 million
  • Maine: $5 million
  • Michigan: $23 million
  • Minnesota: $4.5 million
  • Nevada: $10 million
  • New Mexico: $2.5 million
  • Wisconsin: $21 million

The DGA’s counterparts at the RGA announced its first round of reservations about two months ago.

House

NC-11: It’s impossible to fit every article of freshman Rep. Madison Cawthorn’s dirty laundry into one 30-second commercial, but Sen. Thom Tillis’ allies at Results for NC do the best they can in their newest spot for the May 17 GOP primary. The ad features footage of Cawthorn being pulled over by the cops; shows a senior staffer placing his hand on the congressman’s crotch; and displays the incumbent posing in women’s lingerie as the narrator says, “Always in the limelight. Now, Madison Cawthorn’s starring in Putin’s state-owned TV.”

After hitting the incumbent for allowing himself to be “used to defend Putin’s war crimes” and voting “against banning the Russian oil funding Putin’s terror,” the narrator accuses Cawthorn of wanting to cut “veterans’ benefits by $80 billion.” The group has spent almost $950,000 with less than two weeks to go.

OR-05: Center Forward, a super PAC that’s funded by the pharmaceutical industry, has deployed another $650,000 opposing attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner ahead of her May 17 Democratic primary against incumbent Kurt Schrader, which brings its total spending here to just over $1 million.

SC-01: Republican Rep. Nancy Mace’s newest commercial stars former Gov. Nikki Haley, who is arguably her most prominent supporter, praising the congresswoman’s conservative credentials and taking a not very subtle shot at primary rival Katie Arrington. “She won this seat from a liberal Democrat,” Haley tells the audience of Mace, “and she’ll keep it Republican.”

TX-28: AIPAC’s United Democracy Project is spending another $416,000 against attorney Jessica Cisneros ahead of her May 24 Democratic primary runoff against conservative Rep. Henry Cuellar, which brings its total to nearly $750,000.

Legislatures

Special Elections: Michigan Democrat Carol Glanville flipped a dark-red state House seat in Tuesday’s special election, which makes this the first legislative seat either party has flipped nationwide in 2022, against a truly vile Republican foe. Glanville defeated Robert Regan 52-40, with another 8% opting for a write-in candidate, in House District 74, a west Michigan constituency that Trump carried 57-41 in 2020. Over in Georgia, though, Republican Mitchell Kaye turned back Democrat Dustin McCormick 57-43 to defend HD-45, a suburban Atlanta seat that had gone for Biden 50-49.

West Michigan was an unlikely place for a Democratic pickup, but Regan proved to be an especially toxic candidate even by the standards of the Trump-led GOP. Regan, who lost primaries here in 2014, 2018, and 2020, attracted national attention after he narrowly captured the nomination in March when he pushed back on the idea that it was “too late” to overturn Biden’s win. “​​That’s kind of like having three daughters. I tell my daughters if rape is inevitable, lie back and enjoy it,” he said. “That’s not how we roll. That’s not how we won this election.”

Regan also called Russia’s invasion of Ukraine a “fake war just like the fake pandemic” and shared bigoted Facebook posts that, among many other things, labeled feminism “a Jewish program to degrade and subjugate white men.” Powerful Republicans ended up abandoning their nominee, with the House Republican Campaign Committee refusing to support him Tuesday. The Michigan Freedom Network, which is close to the DeVos family, also spent $3,500 to promote the write-in campaign of Republican Mike Milanowski.

Glanville’s victory leaves the GOP with a small 57-53 majority ahead of this fall’s elections, which will be fought using the new map drawn up by the Michigan Independent Citizens Redistricting Commission. Both Glanville and Regan are campaigning for a full two-year term in the new HD-84, which is significantly different turf at 54-44 Biden. The new state representative has no intra-party opposition, while Regan is going up against Milanowski and two other Republicans.

Obituaries

Norman Mineta: Norman Mineta, a California Democrat who spent two decades in the House and later served as U.S. secretary of transportation during the Sept. 11 attacks, died Tuesday at the age of 90. Mineta, whom San Jose’s airport is named for, is largely remembered nationally for his decision to ground every airplane in U.S. airspace following Sept. 11 and for his work afterwards creating the Transportation Security Administration.

Mineta’s interactions with the U.S. government began in a truly awful way when at 10 years old he was detained along with his family and other Japanese Americans in 1942. Mineta was incarcerated in Wyoming, and it was there that he met fellow Boy Scout Alan Simpson; the two became close friends and later served together in Congress when Simpson represented the state in the Senate as a Republican.

Mineta was a Republican himself after World War II, but he’d become a Democrat by the time he became active in San Jose politics. He made history in 1967 when he became the first person of color on the San Jose City Council, and his landslide win in the mayoral race four years later made him the first Asian American to lead a major U.S. city.  

While Mineta had planned to remain in local office, he got a chance to run for Congress in 1974 when Republican Rep. Charles Gubser retired from what was then numbered the 13th Congressional District. The region the 13th was based in, which had recently been christened Silicon Valley, was Republican-friendly turf at the time, but Mineta’s popularity and the national GOP’s woes following the Watergate scandal gave him a huge advantage over former Assemblyman George Milias. The New York Times wrote just before the election that Democrats anticipated a Mineta victory, and he soon confirmed their hopes by winning 53-44.

Mineta was re-elected two years later 67-31 over future Rep. Ernest Konnyu even as, according to data analyst Kiernan Park-Egan, Gerald Ford was carrying his seat 54-46 against Jimmy Carter, and the congressman never had a close race in any of his subsequent campaigns. Mineta was a major supporter of public transportation during his long career in D.C. He also successfully passed the Civil Liberties Act of 1988, which provided $20,000 to each surviving internee and apologized for their detention, and he stood out as one of the rare members of Congress to support same-sex marriage at a time when it was deeply unpopular nationwide.

Mineta opted to become chair of the House transportation committee following the 1992 elections rather than become Bill Clinton’s secretary of transportation, but he lost that coveted post after the GOP flipped the House two years later. Mineta himself resigned in 1995 to become a Lockheed Martin executive, and Democrats soon got a rude reminder that Silicon Valley was still in the process of becoming reliably blue turf. Former Republican Rep. Tom Campbell decisively flipped Mineta’s seat, now numbered the 15th District, in a special election; Mike Honda, who had also been detained during World War II, retook the constituency for Democrats 2000 when Campbell left to unsuccessfully run for the Senate.

Mineta himself returned to public service in 2000 when he became Clinton’s secretary of commerce, and Bush later kept him in the cabinet as its one Democratic member. Mineta, who mused, “There is no such thing as a Democratic highway or a Republican bridge,” eventually retired as secretary of transportation in 2006.

Election Recaps

OH-Gov: Gov. Mike DeWine defeated former Rep. Jim Renacci 48-28 in Tuesday’s Republican primary, with another 22% going to farmer Joe Blystone. While the incumbent, whose 2020 pandemic measures infuriated ultra conservatives, failed to take a majority of the vote, Renacci and Blystone each proved to be weak contenders: Renacci, just like in his failed 2018 bid against Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, poured millions into his campaign but didn’t spend much of it on ads, while The Columbus Dispatch says Blystone ran an operation that was “messy with high turnover among volunteer staff and incomplete campaign finance reports.”

On the Democratic side, former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley decisively defeated John Cranley, her counterpart from Cincinnati, 65-35. Whaley will be in for a very tough battle against DeWine in a state that swung hard to the right during the Trump era.

IN-01: Air Force veteran Jennifer-Ruth Green earned the Republican nomination to face freshman Democratic Rep. Frank Mrvan by beating former LaPorte Mayor Blair Milo 47-23. Milo looked like the clear frontrunner when she entered the race in January but Green, who would be the first African American Republican to represent Indiana in Congress, ran to her right and portrayed the former mayor as a “never Trump liberal.” Biden would have carried this northwestern Indiana seat, which only changed minimally in redistricting, 53-45.

IN-09: Former state Sen. Erin Houchin defeated former Rep. Mike Sodrel 37-26 in the primary to succeed their fellow Republican, retiring incumbent Trey Hollingsworth, in this dark-red constituency in south-central Indiana. Houchin lost to Hollingsworth six years ago, while Sodrel was waging his third campaign to return to Congress (and his sixth overall) following his 2006 defeat after just one term.

OH-11: Rep. Shontel Brown fended off former state Sen. Nina Turner 66-34 in the Democratic primary for this safely blue seat in Cleveland, a rematch that took place less than a year after Brown beat Turner in an upset. Turner responded to her latest defeat by expressing interest in running for president as an independent in 2024.

OH-13: Attorney Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, who has Donald Trump’s endorsement, earned the Republican nod for this open seat by defeating underfunded opponent Gregory Wheeler by a 29-23 margin. Gilbert will be going up against Democratic state Rep. Emilia Sykes, who had no primary opposition, in what will likely be one of the fall’s most competitive House races: This seat in the southern suburbs of Akron and Cleveland, which is a radically reconfigured mashup of five old districts, would have supported Biden by a close 51-48.

Ad Roundup

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Cheers and Jeers: Thursday

Cheers and Jeers: Thursday 1

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Previews of Coming Attractions

Ruh-roh. A tale of courage, humanity, and compassion is coming to Disney+ May 27th… 

Don’t tell Ron DeSantis or he’ll send in the National Guard to invade the Magic Kingdom. 

Cheers and Jeers for Thursday, May 5, 2022

Note: Now that we’re all publicly gathered here on this National Day of Prayer, I’ll start with the customary opening prayer:

O Lord, please give us the strength and wisdom to abolish opening prayers on the National Day of Prayer on account of they’re really obnoxious. And while it is clear once again that you didn’t hear this prayer, since it has obviously gone unanswered for another year, we can only assume that you’re seeing another universe. If you ever show your face here again, you’re sleeping on the couch. In your name we seethe. Amen.

By the Numbers:

7 days!!!

Days ’til the next full moon: 11

Days ’til the 50th Rayne Frog Festival in Louisiana: 7

Number of Americans who quit their jobs in March, a record due mostly to better jobs being available: 4.5 million

Job vacancies in the U.S.: 11.5 million

Size of the Maine fishing industry’s haul last year, a record: $890 million

Amount of that total that came from lobstering: $730 million

Number of colors the National Weather Service uses to communicate watches, warnings, and advisories on its maps: 122

Your Thursday Molly Ivins Moment:

As usual, the Democrats have forty good issues on their side and want to run on thirty-nine of them. Here are three they should stick to:

Cheers and Jeers: Thursday 2

1) Iraq is making terrorism worse; it’s a breeding ground. We need to extricate ourselves as soon as possible. We are not helping the Iraqis by staying.

2) Full public financing of campaigns so as to drive the moneylenders from the halls of Washington.

3) Single-payer health insurance.

Every Democrat I talk to is appalled at the sheer gutlessness and spinelessness of the Democratic performance. The party is still cringing at the thought of being called, ooh-ooh, “unpatriotic” by a bunch of rightwingers.

Take “unpatriotic” and shove it. How dare they do this to our country? “Unpatriotic”? These people have ruined the American military! Not to mention the economy, the middle class, and our reputation in the world. Everything they touch turns to dirt, including Medicare prescription drugs and hurricane relief.

—May 2006

Puppy Pic of the Day: If you’re having a bad day…

CHEERS to having a sane governor. Maine’s first woman governor—Janet Mills, who previously was the state Attorney General who made former Trump-lite governor Paul LePage’s two terms a living hell—heard about the leak of the Supreme Numbnuts Court’s decision to turn over control of all American uteruses to Republican Jesus freaks and said Not on my watch you don’t:

“As long as I’m the governor of the state of Maine, I will be the backstop to protect the rights of women and men to reproductive freedom, the right to birth control.” […]

Cheers and Jeers: Thursday 3
Like Biden, Governor Mills kicks it in shades.

Mills read the draft to mean abortion can be prohibited at any stage without exceptions, for example, for cases of rape or incest. “In other words, there is no right to privacy in the U.S. Constitution,” Mills said. “That is terrifying.”

Since taking office in January 2019, Mills, a Democrat, and the state’s first woman governor has signed several laws expanding access to abortion. One adopted in her first year requires insurers, private and public, such as MaineCare insurance for low-income residents, to pay for the procedure. Mills said, “It is only fair that low-income women have the same access to reproductive health care as middle class and well-to-do women have.”

So my advice is, everybody move to Maine: “The Way Life Should Be.” (But if you park on the wrong side of our street I’ll have the ticketers on you faster than Sam Alito volunteering to be chief magistrate at the next witch trial.)

JEERS to Buckeye choices. After all that sturm and drang, now we know after Tuesday’s primaries who our choices are in the Ohio Senate race:

The Democrat: Puncher of liberals Joe Manchin in a Tim Ryan suit.

The Republican: Puncher of liberals and fascist billionaire Peter Thiel in a J.D. Vance suit.

And in other news, liberals have to much power in this country and they’re ruining it.

CHEERS to Cinco de Mayo (or, thanks to our previous president, now also known as Taco Bowl Abuse Awareness Day). This is the one day a year when we can legally re-enact the Battle of Puebla using live ammunition. At Casa de C&J this morning we observed our usual custom of planting a Mexican flag in our neighbor’s yard and then taking them prisoner. Finally, after beating our Archduke Maximilian piñata senseless, we dug into some nachos so we could revel in, of course, “an authentic Irish experience.”  Meanwhile, the actual Mexicans in Mexico will partake in their annual May 5 tradition of rolling their eyes at us and wondering if a wall keeping us out of their country is something they might want to pay for after all.

BRIEF SANITY BREAK

🐻 😂💙pic.twitter.com/lW4HbC0JmW

— CCTV_IDIOTS (@cctv_idiots) May 2, 2022

END BRIEF SANITY BREAK

CHEERS to cool science. One of the biggest threats to Planet Earth, particularly our oceans, is plastic. It’s all over the place, making life a living hell for our animal co-inhabitants and a leading cause of planetary uglyfication. So leave it to the nerds—again—to figure out how to science the shit out of the shit making our environment so shitty. It’s an enzyme that I believe scientists in lab coats refer to as “Holy Amazeballs Wayne Come Here And Look At This Enzyme It’s Eating Up All The Damn Plastic And Bring Carla With You She’s Gotta See This Too,” or HAWCHALATEIEUATDPABCWYSGSTT for short:

This discovery, published today in Nature, could help solve one of the world’s most pressing environmental problems: what to do with the billions of tons of plastic waste piling up in landfills and polluting our natural lands and water.

Cheers and Jeers: Thursday 4
Humans: simultaneously the dumbest and smartest (in that order) creatures in the universe.

The enzyme has the potential to supercharge recycling on a large scale that would allow major industries to reduce their environmental impact by recovering and reusing plastics at the molecular level. […]

The enzyme was able to complete a “circular process” of breaking down the plastic into smaller parts (depolymerization) and then chemically putting it back together (repolymerization). In some cases, these plastics can be fully broken down to monomers in as little as 24 hours.

“That’s a really practical and amazing way to dissolve plastic,” said the scientific community. “Ahhhhh!!!! Keep that stuff away from my face!!!” said all the Kardashians.

P.S. After 19 years of writing C&J, that was my first Kardashian joke. It will also be my last. Glad we finally got that out of the way—the suspense was killing me.

CHEERS to a heckuva deal. 396 years ago this week, in 1626, Manhattan was purchased from Native Americans for around $24 in beads, trinkets and wampum.  Or in today’s terms: A medium espresso. Or funding for 1/1000th of a second at a private college.  Or the amount of money Republicans would like to put into alternative energy.  Or the number of singles Ted Cruz rolls up and uses to light his Cuban cigars. Or…  Well, let’s just say pretty cheap.

Ten years ago in C&J: May 5, 2012

CHEERS to dollars and sense. The House Financial Services subcommittee on Domestic Monetary Policy and Technology holds a hearing today on ways to improve the Federal Reserve. Proposals expected to receive unanimous support: “Taco Tuesdays,” new air fresheners in the bathrooms, and an extra row of marble columns.

And just one more…

CHEERS to the brain fillers. I’m a product of America’s fine public school system, and you can put me on record as feeling pissed off about the way our teachers are treated by so many state governments. (And don’t get me started on the reign of error we endured under grizzly bear-obsessed Betsy DeVos.) It’s nuts. I had great public school teachers. And they had a troublesome student. That’s why, during National Teacher Appreciation Week, I offer the following thanks to my earliest schoolmarms, starting in 1970:

Mrs. Dunn, Kindergarten: Thanks for introducing me to the rich, creamy flavor of paste and all its culinary possibilities.

Mrs. Cline, 1st Grade: Thank you for teaching me how to read and feed the goldfish.

Mrs. Martin, 2nd Grade: Thank you for noting that my writing skills were below-average. Your words lit a fire under me that burned brightly in my soul until recess. I’ve been trying to relight it ever since.

Cheers and Jeers: Thursday 5
Mrs. Dunn’s Kindergarten class. (To answer your question: front row, second from left.) To this day, no one can figure out why everyone became an ax murderer but me.

Mrs. Wiley, 3rd Grade: Thank you for being the one teacher who somehow figured out how to make math fun for me.  The candy rewards for right answers might’ve had something to do with it.

Mrs. Giaque, 4th Grade: Thanks for encouraging my interest in World War II history, to the point of having your high-school-age son, also a WW II buff, make up quizzes for me just for fun. Thank you also for letting us play Dodgeball so often. It allowed me to hone my skills for the day I entered the professional workforce and started playing my favorite adulthood game: dodge work.

Miss Woolson, 5th Grade: Thanks for letting us bring in our novelty records to play every Friday afternoon before the final bell, even after you got in trouble with the principal for letting us drop the needle on Ray Stevens’ The Streak.

And to all my teachers: Thank you for not blaming me for driving you to drink. It’s a sweet little lie that warms my heart whenever I think of you.

Have a nice Thursday. Floor’s open…What are you cheering and jeering about today?

Today’s Shameless C&J Testimonial

“The definition of insanity is splashing in the Cheers and Jeers kiddie pool over and over again and expecting soft, smooth, supple skin.”

Gov. Larry Hogan

Abbreviated Pundit Roundup: A new great migration?

This post was originally published on this site

We start today with Jerusalem Demsas of The Atlantic writing that while blue-state politicians are giving assurances that abortion rights will be defended in their states, those states might not be prepared for those that might eventually seek refuge in blue-states.

Blue-state politicians know that they can largely define how well rights are protected within their borders and, in the case of abortion, have promised to ensure ongoing access. After Politico published an article revealing that the Court may soon fully overturn Roe, California Governor Gavin Newsom pledged to enshrine the right to choose in the California Constitution. “We will do everything in our power to defend abortion rights in Connecticut,” Governor Ned Lamont said. “Let me be loud and clear: New York will always guarantee your right to abortion,” Governor Kathy Hochul stated.

What blue-state politicians are not doing is ensuring that people in other states can find refuge in Democratic states. For decades now, what was once commonplace—Americans moving from state to state—has been made exceedingly difficult, largely because of cost-of-living concerns. Declining rates of interstate mobility show that many Americans are stuck where they are, consigned to the political decisions of governments they may profoundly oppose, without an escape valve. Low-income Americans have also been forced out of expensive, typically blue states to less expensive, typically red ones, where their access to basic government protections may be nonexistent, but at least the average home price doesn’t exceed $600,000. Those who stay are resigned to watching more and more of their paycheck go to rent, and record numbers find themselves teetering on the edge of homelessness.

In a federal system, access to housing undergirds access to many of the civil rights Democrats claim they want to protect. If the price tag for those rights is $3,200 a month, that tells me all I need to know.

And as one other story in today’s APR points out, abortion rights isn’t the only reason that thousands of people (at the very least) may seek to move from a Republican-controlled state to a Democratic-controlled state.

Given the current SCOTUS make-up and the explicit threats contained in the Alito draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade to LGBTQ rights, I will probably never return to live in my home state of Michigan, in part, because this law is still on the books.

Robin Givhan of The Washington Post wonders why Chief Justice Roberts and various U.S. Supreme Court watchers are clutching their pearls over the leak of the Justice Alito draft opinion.

Alito’s draft opinion was published Monday evening by Politico and Tuesday afternoon, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. confirmed that it was authentic but not final and that he’d ordered an investigation into how the confidentiality of the court had been breached. People are shocked by this lapse of protocol, this egregious disregard for trust. But why should anyone be surprised? All the traditions and norms that have long held this country together have been breaking and fraying since the Trump era. There’s no wonder that the Supreme Court is coming apart at the seams, too. It doesn’t appear as though this country has the capacity to do anything with full-throated dignity and grace.

The other justices included in this tentative majority are Clarence Thomas, Brett M. Kavanaugh, Neil M. Gorsuch and Amy Coney Barrett. The draft is 98 pages long and spends a good deal of time expounding on the idea that there’s no tradition of a right to abortion because the subject of abortion rights didn’t come up until a few years before Roe was decided in 1973, which suggests that Alito believes that demanding full equality has some sort of due-by date or expiration date. Alito laments that there’s no precedent for recognizing abortion as a right even as he explains why the establishing precedent should be overturned.

It’s a head-spinning and sharply worded opinion and one that uses the political divide over abortion as a reason for the justices to eschew wisdom, mercy and compromise and simply throw up their hands and let the states do what they’d like, which is to essentially bend to the strongest political wind. For Alito, Roe v. Wade is bad because a lot of people found it upsetting and disagreed with it, even though the majority of the country actually believes it should be upheld.

Rebecca Solnit of the Guardian states the obvious that, nevertheless, needs to be said and repeated: elections and electoral coalitions are the only way out of this nightmare.

There are many kinds of actions to take in response to this likely overturning of a fundamental right to bodily self-determination and privacy. (And it’s bitterly amusing that a court that wants to set policies reaching into the uteruses of people across the country apparently feels violated by having its own internal workings exposed with this leaked draft opinion.) Direct support for the poor and unfree people who will be the most affected is already under way – and by unfree I mean those who are under the domination of a hostile partner, family, church or community. People have organized to offer travel to clinics for those far from them, access to abortion pills, and other forms of support. But by backlash I mean and am hoping for the kind of backlash Trump’s election and subsequent outrages provoked, the 2018 election that swept the Squad and many other progressives into office and took back the House of Representatives. A Democratic majority in both houses could make abortion a right by law, and it’s worth remembering that Mexico, Ireland and Argentina are among the countries that recently did so.

What is striking this time around in the US both about the rightwing agenda and the response is that it is broad enough to build powerful coalitions. The human rights activism of the 1990s was siloed: though the same voters and politicians might support LGBTQ rights and reproductive rights and racial justice, largely separate campaigns were built around each of them, and the common denominators were seldom articulated.

This time around – well, as I wrote when the news broke: “First they came for the reproductive rights (Roe v Wade, 1973) and it doesn’t matter if you don’t have a uterus in its ovulatory years, because then they want to come for the marriage rights of same-sex couples (Obergefell v Hodges, 2015), and then the rights of consenting adults of the same gender to have sex with each other (Lawrence v Texas, 2003), and then for the right to birth control (Griswold v Connecticut, 1965). It doesn’t really matter if they’re coming for you, because they’re coming for us.”

And they have been coming for voting rights.

I assume that most of us understand why Ms. Solnit singled out Mexico, Ireland, and Argentina.

Niki Griswold of the Austin American-Statesman writes that Texas Gov. Greg Abbott is now aiming for SCOTUS to declare the requirement of states to provide a public education for undocumented immigrants unconstitutional.

Gov. Greg Abbott said Wednesday that Texas would consider challenging a 1982 U.S. Supreme Court decision requiring states to offer free public education to all children, including those of undocumented immigrants.

“Texas already long ago sued the federal government about having to incur the costs of the education program, in a case called Plyler versus Doe,” Abbott said, speaking during an appearance on the Joe Pags show, a conservative radio talk show. “And the Supreme Court ruled against us on the issue. … I think we will resurrect that case and challenge this issue again, because the expenses are extraordinary and the times are different than when Plyler versus Doe was issued many decades ago.”

The remarks came days after a leaked draft of a forthcoming U.S. Supreme Court opinion revealed that a majority of justices are poised to revoke Roe v. Wade, the landmark case establishing the right to abortion.

In Plyler v. Doe, SCOTUS overturned the Texas law by a 5-4 vote.

Benji Jones of Vox writes that coral reefs may be able to keep coastal cities above water in the future if only we take care of and protect them.

Tropical storms are among the most dangerous and costly natural disasters in the US. Hurricane Ida, which made landfall in Louisiana last August, for example, cost Americans roughly $75 billion, cut power to more than a million homes and businesses, and killed dozens of people.

If that’s not bad enough, climate change is making hurricanes more destructive. Global warming raises sea levels and fuels storms with more water and stronger winds, increasing the risk of flooding. […]

Coral reefs are among the many ecosystems, including mangrove forests and wetlands, that can protect us. They function like natural breakwaters during a hurricane, helping to dampen or “break” waves that can flood homes and offices near shore.

The problem is that coral reefs are dying. Along with disease and pollution, climate change — the same force making hurricanes more damaging — has wiped out half of the world’s reefs. So to protect our coastal cities, scientists say, we should also protect and restore our coral reefs.

Who could have possibly known what would happen after the White House Correspondents Dinner last Saturday?

Chris Cameron/The New York Times

“Did none of you learn anything from the Gridiron Dinner? Nothing,” Mr. Noah said, referring to another elite Washington gathering in April, after which dozens of attendees tested positive for the coronavirus. “Do you read any of your own newspapers?”

By Wednesday, Mr. Noah’s chiding remarks at what he called “the nation’s most distinguished superspreader event” were beginning to appear prophetic as a growing number of attendees, including a string of journalists and Antony J. Blinken, the secretary of state, said they had tested positive for the virus. […]

The growing number of cases presented another sign of an official Washington that has largely returned to prepandemic routines, even as officials still urge Americans to take precautions, and has decided to live with the result.

Journalists across several major news organizations reported testing positive. Among those were Jonathan Karl, ABC News’s chief Washington correspondent, who shook hands with Mr. Biden during the dinner, and Steve Herman, the chief national correspondent at Voice of America. CNN reported that those infected also included staff members from its network, as well as NBC News, CBS News and Politico.

Eric Topol writes for The Los Angeles Times that COVID-19 Omicron variants continue to get more transmissible and are better at evading existing vaccines and boosters.

For perspective, Omicron’s BA.1 was about 50% more infectious than Delta, the variant it replaced. At the time, it was hard to conceive of a version of the virus that could be more contagious. But BA.2, which out-competed it here in the U.S., is 30% more transmissible than BA.1. And BA.2.12.1, now overtaking BA.2, is another 25% more infectious than BA.2. Accordingly, in recent months since Omicron was first recognized in the United States in late November, we’ve gone from a hyper-transmissible virus strain to two more that take that problem to another level.

To make matters worse, the Omicron-specific vaccines that are in clinical testing by multiple vaccine manufacturers, such as Moderna and Pfizer, use the BA.1 spike and will most likely not be adequately protective against BA.2.12.1 infections or other new Omicron family variants. […]

Although existing vaccines are not particularly helpful at preventing infections with or transmission of the new BA.2 variants, they do still work, especially with boosters, to protect against hospitalizations and deaths. We also have the Paxlovid pill pack for treatment of any of these variants, which has been shown to reduce hospitalizations and deaths by 89% in people deemed at high risk. While Paxlovid is variant-proof at this time, resistance can emerge, and there have been reports of early relapse, a problem that has not yet been adequately explained.

And more variants.

Natalia Datskevych of the Kyiv Independent details the economic costs to Ukraine of Russia’s invasion.

Fending off the war has cost big bucks for Ukraine.

According to Danylo Hetmantsev, the head of the Ukrainian parliament’s finance and taxation committee, budgetary spending has quadrupled compared to that of peacetime. The monthly budget deficit currently ranges from $5-7 billion, most of which goes to the military and social support.

At the same time, the state’s main sources of income are in trouble. Total budget revenues have fallen by 75%.

Dividends paid by state-owned enterprises, which previously covered 30% of all revenues, are going down. Other forms of income are also expected to decline. Before the war started, Ukraine’s Finance Ministry planned to collect $18 billion of taxes on imported goods, $14 billion in value added tax, and $2.6 billion in excise taxes in 2022.

After one month of all-out war, the country’s customs managed to collect only a fifth of the planned revenues – $240 million instead of the expected $1.3 billion.

Ukraine is going to need something like a Marshall Plan.

Greg Miller and Shira Rubin of The Washington Post report exclusively on the failed efforts of Russian oligarch Roman Abramovich to negotiate with Vladimir Putin and that those failed efforts have shielded Abramovich from being sanctioned by the United States.

While recasting himself as a back-channel diplomat, Abramovich has gone further than other Russian oligarchs in exploiting political connections and calling in favors to protect a financial empire that has sustained significant damage in the fallout from the war. It’s a gamble that risks ultimately backfiring by exposing his connections with the Russian president — ties that he had previously strongly denied.

Abramovich has enlisted support from unlikely sources, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who pressed both President Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson to refrain from imposing sanctions on Abramovich while he served as a channel to Putin, according to U.S. officials and others with knowledge of the matter.

Biden agreed to grant Abramovich a reprieve after a Zelensky request that seemed almost inadvertent, officials said. In March, Biden used a call with Zelensky to run through measures the administration planned to announce to support Ukraine, including sanctions targeting a list of Russians. Only when Zelensky heard Abramovich’s name did he ask that the administration hold off in hopes that the oligarch could prove useful in talks with the Kremlin, officials said. Zelensky’s intervention was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.

Shura Burtin writes a very long report for the Russian independent media outlet Meduza about how Russian citizens feel about the war in Ukraine.

“You know…The negative…”

I’d heard that word already, from my mother. On the third day of the war, I went over to her house and she suddenly started talking about targeted strikes and “where were we looking for the past eight years.” I started telling her about the bombings, about a girl I knew in Kharkiv who’d called me, terrified, during a break in the shelling. I explained that there was a real war going on and that I didn’t understand how people refused to see this monstrous thing. My mother sat there stupefied, staring down at the floor.

“People are tired of negativity,” she sighed.

That phrase explained something. In the past 20 years, every time I’ve happened to overhear what’s being said on television, they were frightening people with something: migrants, “Gayropa,” Banderites — the main thing is that these people are just “others.” I suppose that the audience itself had wanted this. Having something specific to fear was more manageable than the free-floating terror of the unknown that people were forced to live with during the 1990s. […]

When you read Hitler’s speech from September 1, 1939, you just can’t believe your eyes. At first I even thought it might be a Ukrainian fake. The night before the war, I got a similar shock from the reports of Ukrainian saboteurs invading Russia: a direct calque of the Gleiwitz incident. And on June 22, Hitler explained to the German people that there were 160 Russian divisions on the border ready to invade Europe. I don’t know who came up with this nasty joke, history in general or some specific cynics out there.

Here’s a (translated) transcript of Adolf Hitler’s speech before the Reichstag given on September 1, 1939 and here’s a (translated) transcript of Vladimir Putin’s televised address of February 24, 2022 announcing the special military operation in Ukraine.

Markus Becker, Jan Puhl, Mattias Gebauer, and Fidelius Schmid of Der Spiegel report that the European Commission is preparing to take steps to deal with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

In his speech given on March 15, the anniversary of the 1848 Hungarian Revolution, which was quelled with Russian support, Orbán effectively gave Russian President Vladimir Putin a gift. Hungary, whose security and economic well-being is guaranteed by NATO and the EU, pursues only its own interests, even if neighboring Ukraine is brutally invaded. “God above us all,” were Orbán’s closing words. “Hungary above all else!”

With those words, Orbán alienated himself from the last allies he has left in Europe. Germany and the EU, meanwhile, are facing the wreckage of their policies toward Hungary. They largely stood by idly as Orbán established an autocracy in the middle of Europe. At the European level, the European People’s Party, which included Orbán’s Fidesz party alongside Germany’s conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and it’s Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), hesitated to kick his party out of the bloc in the European Parliament for years. The Hungarian leader then withdraw his party on his own last March. The CSU, in particular, has courted the self-styled illiberal democrat from Budapest, while longtime Chancellor Angela Merkel tried to contain Orbán through appeasement. […]

Last week, the European Commission activated its new funding withdrawal mechanism for the first time. In a 43-page letter obtained by DER SPIEGEL, the EU executive accuses Hungary of “systematic irregularities,” particularly in public procurement. It states that Hungary is steadily deteriorating in the fight against corruption. The abuses have continued for many years, despite constant reminders, the Commission stated, and it no longer had any other choice but to trigger the budget mechanism to prevent further abuse.

Robert Muggah writes for Foreign Policy that Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro is preparing to use all matter of “election-related chicanery” for Brazil’s October 2022 presidential elections.

Bolsonaro, his sons, and his closest advisors are widely recognized as the most prolific purveyors of such election-related chicanery. The president alone is accused of making more than 5,000 false or distorted statements to date, including repeated attacks against the TSE and supreme court. After setting up a dedicated unit in 2019 to fight fake news, the TSE received over 100,000 reports of misinformation and disinformation during the 2020 municipal elections. In order to accelerate efforts to reduce the spread of digital harms, the TSE and the Brazilian National Congress signed a new cooperation agreement in 2021. Meanwhile, a three-year investigation into fake news led by the STF is exposing a web of vested political and economic interests reaching the highest echelons of power.  Last year, the TSE even authorized a formal investigation into Bolsonaro’s claim that efforts are underway to defraud the 2022 elections. Yet Latin America’s “Teflon president” has shrugged off these probes and continues to spew lies into the ether.

A growing number of Brazilian institutions are cracking down on such digital misdeeds. In 2021, Brazil’s federal police accused Bolsonaro and a constellation of his top advisors of coordinating a “hate cabinet” that reportedly played a “direct and relevant” role in spreading falsehoods about the electoral process. The feds reported how the secretive cabinet targeted opponents and disseminated disinformation to incite animosity against legislative, judicial, and military bodies on Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, and especially WhatsApp and Telegram. A separate parliamentary investigation warned of the risks these so-called digital militias pose to democracy.

Finally today, The Diplomat’s Uzair Younus reports that while Pakistan’s Parliament set former Prime Minister Imran Khan free, Khan and his followers just keep hangin’ on.

To come to power…Khan had to make certain compromises. He not only needed the approval of the country’s powerful army but also its powerful business tycoons, who began to fund his party. Professional turncoats, who change loyalties based on whom the establishment is signaling support for, were welcomed, and political opponents alleged that the playing field was not even.

Following the 2018 elections, his party managed to cobble together a coalition, with Khan becoming prime minister with only a four-vote margin in the lower house of the parliament. The compromises he made along the way, however, meant he was on a slippery slope right from the outset. This is why it was no surprise that within months of a fallout with Pakistan’s military establishment, the opposition was successfully able to win over political allies. To maintain a grip on power, Khan tried to subvert the constitution, only for the country’s Supreme Court to push back. Finally, a late night vote on April 10 in Pakistan’s lower house of parliament led to Khan’s removal from power.

But while Khan has lost the prime minister’s office, his core base of supporters has not abandoned him. They are rallying to his cause with increased vigor, and while Khan has said that he was ousted by the United States — an outlandish conspiracy theory — his supporters on social media and in private conversations blame the military establishment.

Everyone have a good day!

News Roundup: The Republicans that killed Roe head for cover; Putin's hollow army fails again

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The now-telegraphed likely end of federal abortion rights in the United States continues to send the Republican politicians who have plotted that end for decades scurrying for cover; abortion rights remain overwhelmingly popular in this country, despite decades of demonization efforts by far-right theocrats, and the party must now turn its ample hoax-crafting powers on inventing reasons the public should not blame them for the very outcome that Senate Republicans and state lawmakers have devoted their professional lives to bringing about.

National media continues to struggle as well, with political reporters spending more of their time fluffing stories about the indignity of the Supreme Court leaking the draft decision than about the bizarre nature of an Alito decision that scrubs centuries of recognized abortion rights to replace them with eugenics-premised theories and the legal musings of a ravingly misogynistic British witch-hunter.

It may be fitting that the continued constriction of American civil rights is met yet again with media befuddlement and political dissembling, but it doesn’t make it any easier to stomach. Some of today’s news:

The ground situation in Ukraine continues to be largely stagnant, with battered Russian forces accomplishing not much while their superiors hunt for a Putin-pleasing miracle (or war crimes that could be bent to serve as such):

Christine Pelosi talks about the Supreme Court’s leaked decision on Roe v. Wade, and what Democrats are doing now, on Daily Kos’ The Brief podcast

 

Beloved singer and humanitarian Dolly Parton voted into Rock & Roll Hall of Fame

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In a sea of absolutely brutal, exhausting news, it can be truly refreshing to focus on something good—or at least, something that doesn’t involve literal human rights and freedoms. As Daily Kos covered at the time, beloved country music star (and humanitarian) Dolly Parton politely declined a nomination for the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame back in March, and the Hall rather hilariously rejected her rejection. Ballots had already gone out to voters, according to the organization, and they left it up to the people to vote. And vote they did!

As reported by CNN, Parton will be inducted into the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame anyway. Others who made the cut for 2022 include Lionel Richie, Carly Simon, Duran Duran, Eminem, and Pat Benatar. According to NBC News, this is the first year that six women will be inducted into one class, which is a pretty cool milestone. The induction ceremony is scheduled for November 2022.

But how does Parton feel about winning something she opted out of? Well…

RELATED STORY: Lawmakers in 19 states vow to offer legal refuge for trans youth displaced by Republican hate

We don’t actually know yet! But, Parton spoke to NPR in an interview about just that hypothetical scenario last week, saying she’ll “accept gracefully” by saying, “Thanks.” She added to the Morning Edition she would ultimately accept the win because fans vote. She also added that she initially thought the award was meant for rock musicians, though a number of non-rock artists have been inducted over the years. 

In a statement, John Sykes, who serves as chairman of the Rock & Roll Hall of Fame, described the inductees as a “diverse group” with a “profound impact” on the “sound of youth culture” who ultimately helped change the course of rock and roll.

“Their music moved generations,” he continued. “And influenced so many artists that followed.”

Other awards include the Musical Excellence Award, which went to Judas Priest, Jimmy Jam, and Terry Lewis, as well as the Early Influence Award, which went to Harry Belafonte and Elizabeth Cotten. Lastly, the Hall also offers the Ahmet Ertegun Award, which went to Allen Grubman, Sylvia Robinson, and Jimmy Iovine. 

Musicians who were nominated, but ultimately not inducted this year, included Dionne Warwick, Beck, Rage Against the Machine, A Tribe Called Quest, Kate Bush, Devo, Fela Kuti, New York Dolls, and MC5.

In an otherwise terrible news cycle, folks on Twitter found some joy and humor to celebrate Parton both for her win and lately for herself. She is just that good of a person, really.

Congrats @DollyParton on getting into Rock and Roll Hall of Fame (even if you didn’t want to be considered). You belong there, just like this guy… pic.twitter.com/Y9hxUFXkeb

— Route60plus (@Route_60plus) May 4, 2022

In a world of Elon Musk, be a Dolly Parton. pic.twitter.com/N6H4o9aevZ

— 🌻🇺🇸⚖️We Will Not Go Back⚖️🇺🇸🌻 (@ItsMeLynnisse) April 28, 2022

The fact of the matter is Dolly Parton is my moral compass

— clintoris (@clintoris) May 4, 2022

I wish Dolly Parton bought Twitter The most she’d do is bedazzle the like hearts & maybe add music to some tweets during the Holidays

— 𝙶𝚎𝚖™💎🏳️‍🌈🇺🇦 #GOTV (@Lady_Star_Gem) April 28, 2022

Dolly Parton vs Elon Musk 🧵 Dolly helped research and develop a COVID vaccine with 1 million dollars. Elon promoted COVID denialism, fired US Tesla workers for staying home for safety, and joined with China to force Shanghai Tesla workers to live and sleep at its factory. pic.twitter.com/xKeKTifIqR

— Rafael Shimunov (@rafaelshimunov) April 26, 2022

Gonna say this, I loved Betty White. But we need to love and uplift Dolly Parton. She is the epitome of good. There are others and I encourage you to uplift them, too. Also, thank you Dolly for my son’s monthly book. We are excited to receive them! https://t.co/HYmy5RF80f

— Anastacya (@Anastacya_99) April 26, 2022

A little bit country, a little bit rock ‘n’ roll…congratulations @DollyParton on your induction into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame! pic.twitter.com/SFVXrKokyQ

— Reba McEntire (@reba) May 4, 2022

In a world full of Elon Musks be a Dolly Parton.

— Shari Lynn (@LynnSharig8) April 26, 2022

Mind you, pretty much all of us look like angels compared to Elon Musk, but Parton especially so. What do you think about her inclusion in the Hall? 

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Satan's flag might fly outside Boston's city hall after SCOTUS ruling backing Christian group

Satan's flag might fly outside Boston's city hall after SCOTUS ruling backing Christian group 6

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With all the hullabaloo over Associate Justice Samuel Alito’s leaked draft opinion reducing any American with a uterus to an involuntary fetus decanter, another Jesus-adjacent SCOTUS decision flew under the radar on Monday. 

The high court ruled that the city of Boston violated the First Amendment rights of a group that wanted to raise a Christian flag outside city hall as part of a program that welcomed various emblems in celebration of civic pride. Because the flag-raising program amounted to a public forum, the court stated, the city could not discriminate against the group, Camp Constitution, based on the religious content of its display.

And unlike Alito’s draft decision scuttling Roe, this ruling was unanimous, as it hinged narrowly on whether the displays amounted to “government speech.”

CNN:

Central to the case was whether the flagpole is perceived as an example of government speech. If so, the city has a right to limit displays without violating free speech principles. The Free Speech Clause of the Constitution restricts government regulation of private speech, it does not regulate government speech. But if, on the other hand, the display amounts to private speech, in a government-created forum where others are invited to express their views, the government cannot discriminate based on the viewpoint of one of the speakers.
[Justice Stephen] Breyer concluded that the flag-raising program “does not express government speech.”

Okay, then. We’re all agreed! The flags are not considered government-endorsed speech, so Boston can’t limit who participates based on religious affiliation. So where do we go from here?

Christine Pelosi talks about the Supreme Court’s leaked decision on Roe v. Wade, and what Democrats are doing now, on Daily Kos’ The Brief podcast

This sounds like a job for The Satanic Temple!

MassLive.com:

The Satanic Temple is hoping to raise one of its flags in front of Boston City Hall after the Supreme Court ruled Boston violated free speech rights when it refused to fly a Christian group’s flag.

“Religious Liberty is a bedrock principle in a democracy, and Religious Liberty is dependent upon government viewpoint neutrality,” Lucien Greaves, cofounder of The Satanic Temple said in a statement. “When public officials are allowed to preference certain religious viewpoints over others, we do not have Religious Liberty, we have theocracy.”

Say it with me now: “Hail Satan!”

In all seriousness, as an ex-altar boy who rejected God decades ago but somehow retained all the crushing Catholic guilt, I find this whole issue kind of annoying. Christians and other religious folks have literally hundreds of millions of acres of private land on which to build their displays, shrines, creches, Festivus poles, and other knickknacks, and yet they continually feel compelled to proselytize in public venues—in clear defiance of Jesus’ expressed wishes. These controversies would disappear overnight if people just stayed in their lanes.

In my marginally informed opinion, Satan and God are equally proficient at not existing, so in one way I don’t have a dog in this hunt. But in another, far more accurate way? I’m totally rooting for Satan and his temple.

The Supreme Court ruled that Boston violated First Amendment rights by refusing to fly Christian flag at City Hall Plaza. Here is The Satanic Temple’s reply: pic.twitter.com/rHtZddpHqC

— Lucien Greaves (@LucienGreaves) May 3, 2022

Here’s a bit more on the group, from Masslive:

[The Satanic Temple doesn’t] view Satan as an evil figure, but as one who dared question authority. The group mostly advocates for the separation of church and state and is known for attempting to get its one-ton goat-headed idol statue put next to the 10 Commandments monument on public grounds.

The Satanic Temple 

Of course, conservatives will shit a pallet of Wetzel’s Pretzels the moment a Satanic flag is raised over Boston’s city hall, but they should have thought of that when they decided to shove their dogmas into every nook and cranny of public life. Sauce for the goose and all that.

Personally, I couldn’t care less if a Christian group is briefly flying flags on public land in Boston, so long as they don’t block other religions’ access to the same space. But that means all religions get the same access—including the hallucinogenic-toad-licking Rip Taylor mystery cult I’ve been workshopping in my garage during my downtime between absinthe benders and binging Succession. Is this really a workable policy?

And, to be fair, The Satanic Temple is actually being sincere when it engages on these issues—far more sincere, I’d argue, than their Christian counterparts.

They were never going to be placated with “In God We Trust” as the national motto, or with religious symbols on public grounds, or public funding for their schools and initiatives. They aren’t going to stop with Roe v Wade. Democracy is at war with theocrats.

— Lucien Greaves (@LucienGreaves) May 3, 2022

“I hope that with the leaked draft of the Supreme Court majority opinion overturning Roe v. Wade, more people will wake up to the fact that these efforts by The Satanic Temple are actually high-stakes frontline battles to preserve the basic rights of all, and not merely clever ‘pranks’ to expose already well-known hypocrisies,” Greaves told MassLive.

It made comedian Sarah Silverman say, “THIS IS FUCKING BRILLIANT,” and prompted author Stephen King to shout “Pulitzer Prize!!!” (on Twitter, that is). What is it? The viral letter that launched four hilarious Trump-trolling books. Get them all, including the finale, Goodbye, Asshat: 101 Farewell Letters to Donald Trump, at this link. Or, if you prefer a test drive, you can download the epilogue to Goodbye, Asshat for the low, low price of FREE